The automobile industry in the era of fuel engines is basically dominated by Europe, the United States and Japan, and now the automobile industry has entered the era of electric vehicles. China has accidentally taken advantage of new energy vehicles to "change lanes and overtake", but Europe and the United States will obviously not give up. The "war" for new energy vehicles is unfolding.
Although Europe has taken a resolute and rapid step in the "ban on burning", European car companies also have the dilemma of elephants turning around, and the controversy of countries facing the "ban on burning" continues. When the European Union announced the ban on burning, the agreement reached in 16 hours negotiations between 27 countries can be imagined to be complicated and difficult.
The auto market will definitely usher in great changes, how will the "four-country killing" of global new energy vehicles, China, the United States, Europe and Japan unfold?
First, the life countdown of fuel vehicles
1. Carbon neutrality schedule & ban on the sale of fuel vehicles
Dozens of countries and territories have proposed "zero-carbon" or "carbon neutral" climate goals, and the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit's Net Zero Tracking Chart counts the progress of individual countries, including: 2 countries that have achieved it, 6 countries that have legislated, and those that are in the process of legislation including the European Union (as a whole) and 3 other countries. In addition, 12 countries, including those in the European Union, have issued policy declarations.
According to the global carbon neutrality roadmap released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), most countries will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035, and the world will enter the era of new energy vehicles. Previously, Norway and the United Kingdom announced that they would ban the sale of traditional fuel vehicles from 2025 and 2035, respectively, neither of which is among the 27 countries of the European Union. India, California, Hainan, China and other countries and regions have also announced that they will ban the sale of fuel vehicles from 2030.
Among them, the "green package" formulated by the European Commission, in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the European Commission proposes to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of new cars by 55% from 2030 compared with 2021 levels, and reduce CO2 emissions of new cars by 100% from 2035. This is effectively equivalent to licensing the sale of pure electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2035.
The days of using petrol and diesel engines seem to be numbered. According to incomplete statistics, a total of 22 automobile brands at home and abroad have proposed the goal of stopping the sale of fuel vehicles:
Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Ford and other automakers have publicly expressed their support for the EU's decision to ban the sale of fuel vehicles from 2035. It is worth noting that because the current ban on sales has a "red light" for hybrid vehicles, how will Japanese car companies that have been focusing on hybrid models for a long time respond, or trigger a new round of "game".
Second, some people "rejoice" and some people "oppose"
Governments around the world have imposed binding requirements on car companies, forcing them to accelerate the launch of zero-emission models mainly pure electric vehicles, and drive the electrification of the entire European auto market from the supply side.
There are two major problems in the complete ban on the sale of fuel vehicles: First, in special environments such as high cold, fuel vehicles still have their unique advantages, and even belong to just demand. Second, pure electric vehicles have fully replaced fuel vehicles, which means that the power infrastructure will be rebuilt or upgraded on a large scale.
1. Chinese car companies: grasp the first-mover advantage
The mainland's new energy vehicle industry has entered the mass popularization stage from the original technology early adopter and policy guidance, and has gradually become an important force supporting the development of China's automobile industry, and the mainland automobile industry has initially met the basic conditions for stopping the sale of fuel vehicles.
For Chinese car companies, in addition to actively grasping the market opportunities brought by Europe's comprehensive "ban on combustion", they also need to continue to enhance the competitive advantage of the local industrial chain and reduce the impact of "carbon tariffs" barriers.
In fact, the sooner it is established for car companies, the more driven by Europe's comprehensive "ban on combustion", more multinational car companies will inevitably turn to the electrification track, and industrial competition will become increasingly intense. How to maintain and make good use of the first-mover advantage to avoid being overtaken.
China's new energy vehicle advantages are gradually prominent, CATL and Ford's cooperation, although it still needs to be approved by relevant departments, but this also means that China's automobile industry has reached the stage of technology and management output. The process will not be smooth, and there will be a lot of protectionism and resistance in between.
2. The United States: strong force
The Biden administration's rules on the nationwide electric vehicle charging infrastructure network are a central part of its climate change plan. Advocates say the lack of chargers on U.S. roads has slowed the growth of electric vehicle sales and the positive impact on the environment.
The new rules stipulate that starting July 2024, more than 55% of the cost will be produced in the United States. Some insiders pointed out that the cost of modules accounts for about 4-50%, and will face certain pressure, so the future solution should be to build factories in the United States, such as Daotong expects that the US factory will be put into production in October 2023, and the company that does the US market will most likely take the path of building factories in the United States, and the purpose of US policy is to revive the manufacturing industry.
For the Biden administration's rule, the European side is concerned that the regulation will discriminate against foreign electric vehicle manufacturers. Prior to this, the EU has already staged a fierce protest over Biden's protectionist policies in the field of new energy.
The determination of European and American countries to turn to the field of new energy is very clear, and the strategy has been tilted towards pure electric vehicles, but while Europe and the United States are digging each other's walls, China's automobile industry chain is also trying to curb development.
3. Europe: Germany, Italy strongly oppose
EU lawmakers and member states reached a preliminary agreement last year that would force automakers to reduce carbon emissions from new cars by 55 percent by 2030 compared to 2021 and 100 percent by 2035. The plan, part of the EU's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, effectively means that new cars that burn hydrocarbon fuels such as oil will be banned from sale.
Germany's transport minister has said Germany will not support the EU's plan to ban the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines from 2035. Previously, Germany failed to obtain guarantees from senior EU officials that exempt synthetic fuels.
Italy's energy minister similarly said Italy intends to vote against the EU's plan to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars within 12 years, and Italy will express its position against the ban on the production and sale of cars and vans with internal combustion engines by 2035.
4. Japan: Obsessed with the past and refusing to transform?
Japan's national conditions and the Japanese government's layout of the new energy vehicle industry are different from China's, so Japan does not put pure electric vehicles at the core of the development of the new energy vehicle industry.
Japan's definition of new energy vehicles is also different from China, using Japan's definition, Japan's new energy vehicle industry has achieved considerable results, "Japanese car companies refuse new energy" and "Japan is unwilling to transform new energy" are not rigorous.
Toyota Group President Akio Toyoda did not oppose pure electric vehicles, but expressed a different opinion in his praise of pure electric vehicles, pointing out their shortcomings and the practical difficulties of large-scale production of pure electric vehicles in Japan.
In this competition, there is both cooperation, embankment and protection, especially the United States, which has made it clear that it hopes to move the entire industrial chain of the automobile industry back to the homeland and realize the independence of the industrial chain, so it does not hesitate to take out huge subsidies and dig the corners of the old ally Europe.
Banning the sale of fuel vehicles is essentially a systemic issue involving energy, manufacturing, supply chain, transportation system, infrastructure, etc., so the overall situation naturally needs to be considered in the long run.
Determining the suspension period does not mean that the sale of fuel vehicles will be stopped immediately, but that enterprises and the whole society can transform to new energy vehicles in an orderly manner according to the deadline.
In the process of switching from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, the above-mentioned industrial chains, especially the automotive industry chain, will face deep reshaping, which also means the redistribution of industrial resources and benefits.
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