Wen | Deng Fei
The United States is trying to create an East Asian alliance
While the United States is involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war, it interferes in the political situation in the Asia-Pacific region and disturbs the rest of the world.
Needless to say, the Russian-Ukrainian war is the US government, and the real purpose is to completely drag down Russia's military and economic strength through the endless war and round after round of sanctions. There is no doubt that no matter what the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the biggest winner in the end is the United States.
But it is not enough to bring Russia down, because the United States' biggest imaginary enemy now is China. It is precisely for this reason that the United States has been trying to bring down China, from the trade war to the situation in the Taiwan Strait, from the economy to politics, the US government can be said to do everything.
Recently, the US government has taken frequent actions in East Asia. First, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin visited South Korea to discuss with the South Korean defense minister plans to improve the implementation capability of the United States' "extended deterrence" and strengthen security cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea, which is very likely to draw South Korea together as a military ally of the United States in Asia.
After that, senior US officials continued to visit the Philippines, and the intention was also obvious, that is, to increase the number of US military bases in the Philippines from five to nine, so that the Philippines could become its own colony again and turn the Philippines into a bridgehead against China. In this way, the Philippines and Japan, one south and one north just form horns, and the attack on both sides can greatly reduce China's combat effectiveness.
South Korea and the Philippines welcomed and approved of the arrival of U.S. officials and the topics they raised. If South Korea and the Philippines really join hands with the United States, plus Japan, which obeys the United States, the United States will form a US-Japan-ROK-Philippines alliance in Asia, which will be extremely detrimental to China's development.
The Philippines may become a puppet of the United States, South Korea may not
However, there is still a certain gap between aspirations and reality, Asia is far from the United States, and the interest chain of Asian countries and the United States is not as strong as in Europe.
The Philippines became independent in 1946 at the cost of a trade and defense agreement with the United States, one of which allowed the U.S. government to lease 23 99-year military bases in the Philippines. In order to protect the sovereignty and national economic interests of the Philippines, the father of the current president of the Philippines, Marcos wanted to stop extending relevant trade agreements and alienate ASEAN from the United States, but he was retaliated by the United States and eventually forced to step down and go overseas.
Whether the current president will reject the U.S. request for the benefit of the Philippines or be forced by U.S. deterrence to accede is unknown. But based on Marcos' current reaction, the latter is more likely. However, even if Marcos agrees, the Filipino people will not be willing to send their country away, and the United States will have to take pains to change the minds of the Filipino people.
As for South Korea, although it has not dealt with China, it is still relatively sober when it really involves South Korea's national interests. If there really is a war in the Taiwan Strait, the possibility of South Korea serving the United States wholeheartedly is very small, and it is very likely that it will pretend to sell face to the United States like Japan did with Russia.
China wants to tie up its trade interests with neighboring countries
There are many factors that affect the outcome of a country's final decision, and the above is just a predictive analysis based on the status quo, and everything is unknown until it actually happens.
But this does not mean that China will be tied up and let the United States lay out in East Asia. The most effective way for China to resist U.S. aggression or bullying is to adapt to change. With the help of the great idea of the "Belt and Road", develop good relations with neighboring countries, and use trade to bind national interests to relieve worries.
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