Which players will be in 2024, everyone is very concerned.
The Kuomintang made a comeback? Fall through glasses? Who will spend Taiwan 2024? Lai Qingde? Hou Youyi?
01
The situation of the DPP
Judging from the situation of the DPP, this situation has become clear, that is, Lai Qingde. Because the candidates who generally run for election are nominated by the party chairman. Now Lai Qingde, he has succeeded Tsai Ing-wen as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. So he came out to campaign on behalf of the DPP, which is basically a foregone conclusion and has legitimacy. And at present, within the DPP, I have seen it, and there is basically no opponent to compete with him.
Although Tsai Ing-wen said that she was very reluctant in her heart, the situation was stronger than people. Tsai Ing-wen turned out that she wanted Chen Jianzhong or Zheng Wencan to take over, and the two of them would run for 2024. However, due to the crushing defeat of the nine-in-one election, she resigned as chairman of the DPP. Later, Lai Qingde was expected by everyone and was pushed up. So now within the DPP, if you want to challenge Lai Qingde's position, the chances may not be high.
The DPP also has a characteristic. Every time it comes to the general election, although the various factions in the party have deep contradictions with each other, they are more concerned about the overall situation in the end. They will support the candidate most likely to be elected to run, unlike the Kuomintang. Lai Qingde is currently both factional strength in the party, influence in society and his age (because he is now in his prime and is in good physical condition in all aspects), and he has rich experience in campaigning, so it should be said that he should be the best candidate in the DPP for 2024.
Of course, this does not mean that there is no factional struggle within the DPP. On February 17, Chen Zongyan, a spokesman for Taiwan's so-called "Executive Yuan" who had been in office for only 18 days, was exposed to a sex scandal. Had to resign, and was quickly approved. He should have become the shortest-serving speaker in the history of the Executive Yuan. He was the favorite of DPP Chairman Lai Qingde, and he was a concubine, and the spearhead should be directed at Lai Qingde. Therefore, the DPP is not calm, and the contradictions within the DPP are also developing.
02
The situation with the Kuomintang
Let's take another look at the situation on the Kuomintang side. Now the situation is uncertain, you can't see it.
Originally, at the end of last year, Taiwan's nine-in-one election won a big victory, and it won 15 of the 22 counties and cities, and it should have a good hope of making a comeback in 2024. But the KMT has a rule, every time after winning the election and the general election, fierce infighting will break out around the candidates, politicians calculate each other, and the last good hand will be broken. So this time, if you don't get it right, you may repeat the mistakes of the 2020 election.
As we all know, in 2020, Han Yu's reputation was very high at that time, and the polls were far ahead. Later, he killed a Gou, and this internal friction led to the failure of Han Yu in the end.
Hou Youyi
This time, judging from the polls, Hou Youyi, the mayor of New Taipei from the Kuomintang, should be in the lead, but he himself has not clearly expressed his position so far. Of course, in my opinion, the KMT candidate wants to be nominated by the party chairman, so Zhu Lilun is now just saying that he wants to nominate the "strongest candidate", and he does not say who it is. Then in this case, even if Hou Youyi has ideas, it is not convenient for him to say them. Because Zhu Lilun and Hou Youyi used to be in the same frame (in New Taipei). Zhu Lilun said that Hou Youyi is the "strongest hen" of the Kuomintang (there is a saying in Taiwan that the election should be "a hen with a chicken"), and Hou Youyi is the "strongest hen").
But as Hou Youyi, there is another problem, he was elected mayor of New Taipei not long ago, voting on November 26 last year, and it has only been three or four months now. Mayor of New Taipei, your ass is not hot, and you immediately said that you want to run for the leader of the Taiwan region, which is also a little unreasonable. And the lessons from the past, in 2020, Han Yu is carrying the reputation of a fallen mayor. He was also elected mayor of Kaohsiung, and soon after he went to elect the leader of Taiwan. People said that he did not keep his promise, and the result was that Han Yu ended up fighting with chickens and eggs. The mayor of Kaohsiung was also removed, and the "president" was not elected.
Gou
There is a clear movement, both good and bad. Taiwan's richest man, Terry Gou, Taiwan's richest man, who last failed to compete for the KMT candidate in 2020, has recently been actively campaigning and has made frequent media appearances to show his intention to run for the KMT's candidate. I read media reports that on February 14 he went to visit former "Legislative President" Wang Jinping (because they both have good personal friends). After Wang Jinping was interviewed, he clearly conveyed a message to the media that Gou Taiming hopes to represent the Kuomintang in the 2024 election.
Now within the Kuomintang, views are divided. Polarization. Opponents believe Gou failed his last bid for the candidate and offered to quit the party. And after losing the election, he did not support Han Yu in the end. Instead, he cooperated with the People's Party led by Ke Wenzhe and always disrupted the situation. This made many Kuomintang members unable to stand it. As a result, Han Yu also lost the election (of course, Han Yu lost the election for many reasons).
Gou Taiming quit the party, so now that he is not even a member of the Kuomintang, how can he represent the Kuomintang to run for election. The Kuomintang has regulations that you must rejoin the party after leaving the party, and you must have completed more than four years, so according to the regulations, you must not apply for membership until September this year. Then some people think that although you Gou Taiming is very short on time, if you want to rejoin the Kuomintang, then you must at least apologize for the last time you quit the party. Gou later used a very clever way in the media, you said he was apologizing, some people said that this was an apology, but some felt that this could not be regarded as an apology.
He talked about quitting the party, which was a young and vigorous person when I was young. This means ill-considered. Think about how old is Gou now? 74 years old. How old was it four years ago? 70 years old. What age is 70? According to what we used to call the year of antiquity. At the age of 70, you still say that you are young and vigorous, don't you think it's a little ridiculous?
So, Gou is successful as an entrepreneur in Taiwan. However, he is used to being a big boss and seems very domineering. Not very competent as a politician. From the 2020 election, it is clearer, and his weaknesses have been exposed.
For example, in the process of running for election, everyone originally thought that Gou Taiming had a lot of investment in the mainland, and the development of his enterprise was inseparable from the support of the mainland. However, after he ran for leadership of the Taiwan region, he scolded the mainland and attacked "one country, two systems" more than anyone else. So he finally won much fewer votes than expected, at that time, because he had a very good relationship with the senior elders of the Kuomintang, everyone also supported him, thinking that he was rich and influential in Taiwan (at that time, he was also influenced by Trump's election as the president of the United States, also 70 years old, and also a big boss), and thought that Gou Taiming was still very promising, at least he had strong financial resources. But in fact, after the election, everyone can see that there are not many people who support him.
If this problem is not solved, Gou Taiming and Hou Youyou will begin to collide.
Zhu Lilun
That problem doesn't stop there, I see that there is now a rumor in the Taiwanese media. On the surface, Zhu Lilun said that "success does not have to be me". The media thought that Zhu Lilun should actually have this idea. Because in 2020 he changed columns, and later he was selected as a mess. Zhu Lilun is also 63 years old this year, and he will definitely have no chance after not choosing this time. Moreover, as the chairman of the Kuomintang, he should have this qualification (this candidate was set by him, and he wanted to go on his own, and it was completely legal). Therefore, everyone now believes that many local county mayors have come out to appeal, hoping that Chairman Zhu Lilun will personally come out.
This situation is even more worrisome. The KMT candidate has been hesitant, whether Zhu Lilun is waiting for the opportunity. When is it? Waiting for Hou Youyi and Gou, the two tigers fight, and when they lose both, then he will come out to clean up the mess.
The lesson of the Kuomintang's history is that the question of unity and integration often comes to the critical moment, and the various factions within it do not care about the overall situation. In 2018, the KMT won a resounding victory in the nine-in-one election. In 2000, when the leader of the Taiwan region was elected, the Kuomintang played a good hand of cards. This time, in Taiwan's nine-in-one election last November, the Kuomintang won another big victory. Will it be that in the end, a good hand will be played again?
In addition, there is only one year left before next year's election of the leader of the Taiwan region. The DPP has begun to take off, and if the KMT is slow to settle on the candidates and starts too late, it will certainly be unfavorable to the election situation.
In last year's local elections, like Taipei Mayor Jiang Wan'an, he started early. In May, the Kuomintang announced that it had confirmed his candidacy for mayor of Taipei. The other candidates did not join until later. Jiang Wan'an's election was more difficult to go smoothly and started early.
Of course, Taiwan's election has always been a difficult thing to predict and is changing rapidly. In the next year, no one can predict what will happen. The results of elections are also often glass-breaking. In last year's nine-in-one election, everyone thought that the Kuomintang could maintain a little more than half, but he did not expect him to win two-thirds. At that time, it was estimated that the DPP would lose a little, but it turned out to be a complete defeat.
So in the 2024 election, who will come out of the Kuomintang in the end? These still need to be observed further.