Source: Guangming Daily
On January 10, NATO and the European Union signed a joint declaration on cooperation aimed at strengthening Europe's collective defense against common "security threats." Xinhua News Agency
French President Emmanuel Macron, right, and German Chancellor Scholz arrive at the Sorbonne University in Paris on January 22 to attend the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Elysee Treaty. Xinhua News Agency
【Special attention to the first anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict】
February 24 marks the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The year-long Russian-Ukrainian conflict has profoundly changed the geopolitical landscape in Europe. German Chancellor Scholz said in a speech at Charles University in the Czech Republic last year that the center of Europe is shifting eastward.
Central and Eastern European countries located in the east of the European Union and NATO are not only closer to the front line of this major crisis, but also lead the continent's response to a certain extent: after the outbreak of the conflict, Central and Eastern European countries, especially Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary, took most of the Ukrainian refugees, took the lead in providing Ukraine with all kinds of assistance, and prompted the EU to take more radical measures in defense and energy security, which seemed to make the major powers of the continent unable to keep up.
Who is the "leader of NATO's Eastern Front"
After the end of the Cold War, the eastward expansion of the EU became a common demand of Eastern and Western European countries. In May 2004, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and other ten countries were the first to join the EU as "excellent students" from Central and Eastern European countries, becoming the largest expansion of the EU so far. However, compared to the major countries of the European continent, Germany, France, the Netherlands, etc., these latecomers seem to have been on the margins for a long time. Today, stimulated by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the geopolitical pattern of Europe is undergoing profound changes.
Poland is a neighbor of Ukraine, and the border between the two countries is 535 kilometers long, which is inextricably linked on the historical, cultural and practical levels. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Poland became the "center" of the entire European response to the Ukrainian crisis, and has always been in the first echelon of US-European assistance to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has visited Poland many times to meet with Polish President Duda.
In the summer of 2022, a very special "Abrams Tank Training Academy" was opened in the western Polish village of Bedrusko, whose main teaching content is the operation of "Abrams" tanks. With the help of American instructors and 28 tank prototypes, Ukrainian tankers received driving and shooting training in what is called "the world's most advanced tank". Currently, 105 soldiers from the Ukrainian front are undergoing intensive training in Leopard tanks at specialized bases in Poland, guided by Polish, Canadian and Norwegian instructors.
At present, the Polish government seems to have positioned itself as Ukraine's "logistics center", sending weapons and aid from the West to Ukraine and pressuring the European Union to impose tougher sanctions on Russia. Sona Muzkalova, an adviser to the Slovak Foreign Ministry, said Poland is using the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to improve its international standing and effectively lobby other Central and Eastern European countries.
Some analysts say that Poland's goal is to become a "leader on NATO's Eastern Front." As the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, NATO continues to pour resources into Poland, and the United States is building a new permanent base in Poland. The Pentagon said Feb. 7 that the U.S. State Department has approved a deal of up to $10 billion to sell long-range missiles, rockets and launchers to Poland. The package includes 18 Hymas launchers, 45 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles with a range of approximately 300 kilometers and more than 1,559 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets.
Last spring, Poland ordered 250 Abrams tanks from the United States, increasing the purchase to 316 in January. Poland has also ordered nearly a thousand South Korean K2 main battle tanks, 820 of which will be manufactured in Poland from 2026. In the coming years, Poland will have seven times as many tanks as France and has the largest army force in Europe.
Duda recently said he would be ready to build an "iron curtain to the clouds" if the threat appeared on the eastern border. He announced that Poland's military spending would rise to 4 percent of GDP this year — the highest of any NATO country, most of which are still struggling to meet the 2 percent requirement.
Is Europe "Central and Eastern Europeanizing"?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has profoundly changed the European political ecology, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become the most important issue in the EU, the balance of European power has also begun to "tilt to the east", and even to a certain extent, the phenomenon of "Central and Eastern Europeanization" has appeared - Central and Eastern European countries have begun to play a leading role in the EU, accelerating Europe's "de-Russia and supporting the United States" and strengthening geopolitical game thinking. In the second half of last year, during its presidency of the European Union, the Czech Republic played an important role in promoting sanctions against Russia, getting rid of its energy dependence on Russia, increasing EU aid to Ukraine and accelerating the process of Ukraine's accession to the EU.
The conflict has also fundamentally changed the geopolitical pattern of Europe, the old European security architecture is on the verge of collapse, the US-EU alliance is closer, and the EU-Russia relationship as a whole is going to break down and lead to a "lose-lose". Recently, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Borrell said very strongly that if the EU wants to achieve peace, it must support Ukraine more strongly than ever, and military support for Ukraine and efforts to achieve peace do not conflict at all. He believes that if Ukraine loses and Russia wins, the situation will be worse, and Europe will also need to be more capable and stronger militarily than before.
The United States seems to have a lot of trust in the "new European" countries in Central and Eastern Europe, but it has a bad heart for the "old European" countries such as France and Germany, which practice strategic autonomy.
On the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, US President Joe Biden visited Poland from February 20 to 22. On the eve of his visit to Poland, Biden first appeared in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, without warning, to meet with Zelensky. Biden's visit, including his meeting with Zelensky, has previously been kept strictly secret. Some commentators believe that Biden's visit to Ukraine shows that Poland has in fact become "a hub and bridge between Ukraine, Europe and the rest of the world."
On February 21, Biden met with Duda. Biden said that relations with Poland are very important for the United States, and the United States' support for Ukraine is unwavering; Duda said that Poland is safe due to the presence of the US armed forces, Biden's visit is an important symbol of the United States' commitment to maintaining European security, and the transatlantic bond is vital to Europe.
The beginning of a new phase of the Ukrainian crisis
The Spanish "Atalayar" news network said that Biden's visit to Poland marks the beginning of a new phase of the Ukrainian crisis.
This simple statement seems to have a deep meaning: after a year of prolonged conflict, have the United States and NATO really wanted to promote a ceasefire and peace talks? Looking closely at Biden's various gestures during his visit, the answer is clearly no. There is unlikely to be peace in Europe until the United States and its NATO allies decide what the "victory for Kiev" will look like.
On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a State of the Union address, announcing Russia's suspension of the implementation of the New START Treaty signed with the United States, and rebuking Western countries for trying to push the regional conflict between Russia and Ukraine into a global confrontation, and the United States wants Russia to fall into strategic failure. Biden also chose to speak on the Chinese sofa on the same day, emphasizing that "Ukraine will never become a victory for Russia." US media said that Biden's trip is a preview of an increasingly head-on confrontation with Russia - as if it is a true interpretation of Duda's slogan "straight to the clouds and the iron curtain".
On February 22, Biden also met with representatives of the "Bucharest Nine countries" in Poland to ensure the security of NATO's eastern flank. The nine Central and Eastern European countries, including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary, were founded eight years ago in the aftermath of the Crimean crisis.
Poland will also be a geopolitical hotspot in Europe for the foreseeable future. A year ago, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out due to a series of historical and practical problems such as "NATO's eastward expansion"; A year later, with the blessing of all sides, this confrontation does not seem to be cooling down, and the Central and Eastern European countries are on the "front lines of conflict", and they are still producing weapons, and ordinary people are still suffering from war, rising prices and energy shortages.
Central and Eastern Europe is the intersection of multiple civilizations such as Catholic, Orthodox and Islamic, with unique human geographical landscapes and historical and cultural traditions. But history doesn't seem to take care of it, and both world wars spread from here. Nearly a year after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the world's attention is focused on this land. Western politicians came at this time, each saying their own thing, brushing up their sense of existence, but it seems that they did not give the answer that history and the people wanted. (Prague, February 22 -- Prague-based reporter Yang Yiming)