preface:
Although I will write about the bidding before each Major, my final "homework" will not be the same as the mainstream quiz results, and I am personally more "adventurous", and more inclined to "prejudge" the performance of certain teams, coupled with my "either thin or unique" concept, so I do not advocate players to copy my quiz results, because once copied, the probability will die very badly, it is recommended that you refer to the mainstream quiz results, you can be safer.
(Note: Because the BUCHHOLZ rules will be used at the beginning of the third round of competition, and my entire betting prediction is based on the "seeded team order", it should not be as accurate as BUCHHOLZ, but after all, BUCHHOLZ is the "advanced version" of the "seed team order", so it is also feasible to predict according to the seed team order)
body:
Let's first set our sights on Tyloo vs. Heroic:
Heroic's preferred figures are, in order: Nuke, Overpass, Vertigo, secondary figures Inferno, Mirage, three selected as Ancient, and Dust2 basically bans directly.
On this basis, tyloo is definitely going to get rid of Nuke, Overpass, relatively speaking, Heroic will take the initiative, they can choose to restrict Tyloo to remove Inferno, Mirage, or they can choose to remove their own relatively weak figure Ancient, Dust2.
But I don't think Heroic will leave Dust2 or Ancient behind, because these two pictures are their "medium horses", and if Tyloo's head is dead, Heroic will not be able to pay off.
So I think Heroic will get rid of Ancient, Dust2, so that the game graph is generated in Inferno, Mirage, Vertigo.
At this point, if heroic is ban again, then I think heroic will limit the tyloo a little, that is, BAN Inferno, leaving Vertigo (his own preferred graph) and Mirage (his own secondary selected graph).
At this time, if you let Tyloo choose Vertigo and Mirage, it is not difficult to guess that it is basically Mirage.
And if it is tyloo and then BAN, then I think Tyloo will BAN Vertigo (the other side's preferred picture), leaving Inferno and Mirage (the only two figures that can be played by the other side).
If Heroic chooses to play Infinito, everyone is happy; if Heroic chooses to play Mirage, Tyloo can also play.
I have published on October 24, 2021,2021," "Tell me why I think major first round tyloo has a chance to play Heroic", detailing the possibility of BAN PICK when tyloo plays Heroic, if you are interested, you can read it for yourself, and I will not repeat it here.
Prediction: Even if Heroic wins, the point difference will be small, and Tyloo has a chance to fight.
In addition, I would like to say that many players, including foreign professionals and amateurs, will put Tyloo in the position of "0-3", in fact, I think the probability of Tyloo playing 0-3 is relatively low.
Foreign players believe that Tyloo will 0-3 based on four points:
First, tyloo itself is not strong, and the epidemic caused Tyloo has been out of the World Series for two years, in these two years, the domestic local events are limited, and some domestic events, foreign players do not pay much attention, so that most people think that the level of Tyloo will decline, and the probability of 0-3 is greater.
Second, most people abroad believe that under the publicity of their own media, the country is in a deep and fierce situation under the influence of the epidemic, and tyloo has no time to conduct large-scale training to maintain a competitive state, which is caused by the stereotype of foreign people on China.
Third, foreign players on the CIS, Europe, the Americas of the team blind confidence, CSGO although the global is still tepid, but more and more professional players to leave is an indisputable fact, high-intensity confrontation only exists in so many teams, aside from these top teams, other sub-teams are basically half a pound, the pool is also around "Dust2, Inferno, Mirage" to carry out.
But thanks to CIS and the strong CS background (inner volume) in Europe, in the short term, their secondary teams have a bit of a "skinny camel is bigger than a horse" visual sense.
(To what extent did the previous CS involution go?) For example, Olofmeister, in fact, he debuted in CS1.6, I began to play CS in 2005, until CSGO came out, I have no impression of him, but trance knows that there is such a person, because when the Swedish professional brother brushes the screen, olofmeister is always in the upper right corner as the background.
At that time, it was the heyday of the Swedish team, olofmeister could not be ranked at all, and he could not be seen in the secondary team of The Swedish mainland, and the degree of inner volume can be imagined)
Under this blind self-confidence, they obviously think that Tyloo is a relatively weaker existence.
Fourth, "foreign CSGO environment is not good" = "tyloo's CSGO environment is not good", do not know that tyloo has a lot of time to spend on CSGO (even some readers say that a member of the tyloo team is still on the ladder before leaving for Stockholm), but in view of geographical factors can not frequently fight with foreign teams.
Looking at it another way, say that the Tyloo team members do not worry about eating and drinking, no problem, right? What about foreign teams? The bitter history of the falleN gang's debut should be known to everyone, what is the situation with the remaining SA (Brazilian team) that is not as good as Luminosity?
Conclusion of foreign players: I can't = you can't.
That is, the environmental difference of our team playing CSGO is equal to the environmental difference of Tyloo playing CSGO;
We begged Grandpa to sue Grandma to pull sponsorship equal to Tyloo as well;
We had to work and train to make ends meet, and so did Tyloo.
At this time, foreign players think that the probability of tyloo 0-3 is particularly large, is there something wrong? Nothing wrong with that!
However, as domestic players, we should know more clearly what Tyloo's strength is.
Is tyloo bad? difference!
Is it possible for tyloo to be 0-3? Yes, and the probability is high!
Other regional secondary teams with tyloo who have a greater probability of 0-3? I don't know.
I say so much, not that I don't think Tyloo won't be 0-3, I also think Tyloo is poor, but if you pick thin people in a bunch of fat people, tyloo really isn't necessarily the thinnest one.
We go back and look at it and next up is Astralis vs. Copenhagen Flames:
Copenhagen Flames have been very strong recently, and because this team does not often appear in everyone's field of vision, many people may not know them very well.
Their pool is very balanced, except for Dust2, there is nothing that cannot be played, although most of the matches are dominated by secondary teams, but there are also top teams such as Vitality, Mouz, G2, Gambit, etc., and the results of the game are also mutually winning, even when losing, the point difference between the two sides is relatively small.
Looking at Astralis, after dev1ce joined NiP, the impact on Astralis is still very large, and in these six months, Astralis has moved from the balance of the pool to the partial section.
Astralis has been extremely dependent on Nuke for half a year, with a 23 appearances, and although the winning rate has reached a very impressive 65.2%, except for Nuke, the other figures are basically serious biases.
Inferno made 14 appearances and won 57.1%;
Dust2 made 9 appearances and won 55.6%;
Vertigo made 9 appearances and won 33.3%;
Overpass made 8 appearances and won 37.5%;
Ancient made 5 appearances with a winning percentage of 20.0%;
Mirage doesn't fight.
When Astralis plays against Copenhagen Flames, First of all, Dust2 and Mirage will definitely be banned.
Copenhagen Flames considers Astralis' appearances, wins, and ban Nuke.
Astralis combined his own Vertigo, Overpass, Ancient win rates, and compared the win rates of Copenhagen Flames (76.5%, 72.2%, 68.6%), I speculate that these three charts will also be BANNed.
In this way, the only Inferno is a diagram acceptable to both parties.
But will Copenhagen Flames target that? That is, will Inferno be removed by Copenhagen Flames? This is highly likely.
If Astralis bans first, it is probably BAN Mirage, Ancient.
At this time, If The Copenhagen Flames is aimed at Astralis, BAN Dust2, Inferno, Nuke, and the remaining Overpass and Vertigo let Astralis choose.
The winning percentages of Astralis are 37.5% and 33.3%, respectively, and copenhagen Flames is 72.2% and 68.6%.
If it is Copenhagen Flames ban first, it is basically the same, and the last two diagrams left by Astralis for Copenhagen Flames are not surprisingly Inferno, Vertigo, and then Copenhagen Flames removes Inferno, and the two sides compete on Vertigo.
With the support of the data, it is obvious that the Copenhagen Flames has a higher probability of winning, but after all, the Copenhagen Flames are the secondary team, and although the Astralis is not in its heyday, it is ultimately a skinny camel bigger than a horse, whether from the experience of the game or the team as a whole, it is above the Copenhagen Flames.
Prediction: If dev1ce is in Astralis, even if Astralis's strength declines, I will not hesitate to choose Astralis to win, but I have to think about it now.
In summary, combined with my own "spirit of adventure", I chose Copenhagen Flames to win.
FaZe vs. Spirit:
The two sides met at IEM Cologne in July 2021, with FaZe winning 2-1 and a very small point difference between the three charts.
Both sides did not play Vertigo, and Although FaZe played Nuke, the record can be described as sparse, with a winning percentage of only 28.6%.
In addition, the pool of the two sides is very close, in a word, both sides are good at Ancient, Mirage, so the game chart is one of the two figures, mirage's probability is greater.
On this basis, Mirage,which pays more attention to the breakdown of individual competitive status, is not easy to judge the outcome of the game.
FaZe bears the title of "Star Team" and does not know whether it will withstand Spirit's offensive.
Prediction: Spirit narrowly beat FaZe by a narrow score.
ENCE vs. GODSENT:
One is ENCE, which has been slightly stronger recently, and the other is Brazil's emerging talents led by TACO and felps, and the pool of both sides is similar.
Prediction: Given that the European division where ENCE is located has a better atmosphere and higher intensity, I think ENCE has a greater probability of winning.
Virtus.pro against PaiN:
Virtus.pro changed sides before the game and avoided BIG, even though Virtus.pro's competitive state fluctuated greatly, I still think Virtus.pro can win the paiN.
Prediction: Virtus.pro win and hope not to be punched in the face.
BIG vs. Entropiq:
The two sides had one encounter on Spring Sweet Spring 2 on June 2, 2021, with BIG winning 2-0.
This Bo1 will most likely be carried out on Dust2.
Prediction: BIG wins.
Movistar Riders vs. Renegades:
Movistar Riders eliminated Dust2 and Inferno, Renegades removed Ancient and Vertigo, and the remaining Nuke, Mirage, and Overpass could play both.
Movistar Riders has been very strong in the past month, with Heroic, Astralis, Complexity, NiP, and G2.
Prediction: Movistar Riders win.
MOUZ vs Sharks:
I believe the vast majority of people will choose MOUZ, but THE RECENT STATE OF MOUZ IS VERY UNSTABLE, DEXTER, ACOR OFTEN TURNS OFF, BYMAS FROM FAZe TO MOUZ, WHICH CAN BASICALLY BE CLASSIFIED AS "NEITHER BELONGS TO THE TOP PLAYERS, BUT IS BETTER THAN THE SECONDARY PLAYERS", AND IT IS ALSO NOT IN THE GAME OF MOUZ.
Prediction: Mouz wins, hoping not to be punched in the face.
The first round of eight Bo1s is written, and to sum up, I think the teams that won the first round were: Copenhagen Flames, Spirit, ENCE, Virtus.pro, BIG, Movistar Riders, Heroic, Mouz.
Then, for the second round of the winner's group, the seed order is probably:
From this, we can speculate that the second round of the winner group is roughly:
Spirit vs. Copenhagen Flames;
ENCE vs. Virtus.pro;
BIG vs. Mouz;
Movistar Riders vs. Heroic.
The four winners I predicted were, in order: Copenhagen Flames, ENCE, Mouz, and Heroic.
To add, BIG has played Mouz four times recently, Mouz wins 6 charts and BIG wins 3 charts, so I think Mouz has a slightly higher probability of winning.
At this point four "2-0" teams came to the qualifying round, and according to the seedings, we assumed that the qualifying rounds were Copenhagen Flames vs. ENCE and Mouz vs. Heroic.
Using Bo3 in qualifying, I think Heroic will take one "3-0" spot, the other one is hard to say.
Because Copenhagen Flames is relatively close to ENCE's strength and recent performances, if I have to choose, I choose ENCE, which is more seeded, after all, ENCE entered the Major main competition as the "second challenger in Europe", and the Copenhagen Flames entered the Major main competition as a "competitor".
However, there is a variable in this, that is, in the first round of the matchup, Astralis can also do copenhagen Flames, and in case the tyloo map factor and luck bonus drag Heroic into the water, the situation will be chaotic.
So, I predict that with a 3-0 record of the team to reach the top sixteen, ENCE will occupy one, the other is not very good, and if I choose hard, I will choose neither Copenhagen Flames nor Heroic, I will choose Astralis.
The 3-0 option only needs to be selected, so I choose ENCE.
Let's go back and look at the seed position distribution of the loser group in the first round, as shown in the following figure:
Based on the seed position distribution, we can roughly guess that the second round of the loser group is:
Astralis vs. FaZe;
paiN vs. GODSENT;
Sharks vs Entropiq;
Tyloo against Renegades.
The four losers I predicted were: FaZe, PaiN, Sharks, renegades.
(Additional note: GODSENT and paiN recently played 7 pictures, GODSENT won 4 photos)
At this point four "0-2" teams came to the knockout round, and I don't think FaZe would be eliminated, and of the remaining 3 teams, I tended to make Sharks and Renegades out 0-3.
(Addendum: PaiN's historical results and RMR division results are better than Sharks's)
In summary, in the "0-3" option, I chose Sharks, and the reason for not choosing Renegades was that maybe Tyloo would lose to Renegades.
"3-0" and "0-3" are all selected, let's go back and look at the other teams' qualifying situation.
After the second round, the "1-1" teams were, in order: Spirit, Virtus.pro, BIG, Movistar Riders, Astralis, GODSENT, Entropiq, Tyloo.
A rough estimate of their seed location is:
Based on this rough seed position distribution, the third round of "1-1" matches is roughly:
Spirit vs. Virtus.pro;
Astralis vs. GODSENT;
BIG vs. Tyloo;
Movistar Riders vs. Entropiq.
The historical record of Spirit's encounters with Virtus.pro shows that 11 charts, Spirit wins 4 charts, rough estimates, Virtus.pro wins.
Astralis beat GODSENT, BIG beat Tyloo, and Movistar Riders beat Entropiq.
The 2-1 teams at this time were: Astralis, BIG, Movistar Riders, Mouz, Virtus.pro, Copenhagen Flames.
Teams 1-2 are: Spirit, PaiN, Tyloo, Entropiq, GODSENT, FaZe.
The game entered the fourth round, and the 2-1 and 1-2 teams played each other in pairs, and based on the rough seed position, the two sides were speculated to be:
Astralis vs. Virtus.pro;
BIG vs. Copenhagen Flames;
Movistar Riders vs. Mouz;
Spirit vs. GODSENT;
paiN vs. FaZe;
Tyloo vs. Entropiq.
The teams I predict to advance 3-1 are: Astralis, Copenhagen Flames, Mouz.
The teams with 1-3 outs were: GODSENT, PaiN, Tyloo.
At this time, the 2-2 teams are: Spirit, BIG, Movistar Riders, Entropiq, Virtus.pro, FaZe.
The fifth round of matches is roughly as follows:
Spirit vs. Entropiq;
BIG vs. FaZe;
Movistar Riders against Virtus.pro.
The three winning teams (3-2) were: Spirit, FaZe, Virtus.pro.
To summarize my prediction:
3-0: ENCE, Astralis (relatively small probability).
3-1：Heroic、Copenhagen Flames、Mouz。
3-2:Spirit、FaZe、Virtus.pro。
2-3：Entropiq、BIG、Movistar Riders。
1-3：GODSENT、paiN、Tyloo。
0-3：Sharks、Renegades。
I think the changes above are BIG and FaZe, and the two of them are likely to have the result reversed, that is, BIG is out 3-2, while FaZe is out 2-3, and the other teams I don't think are much of a problem.
Finally, I attach my personal quiz and good luck to all of you!
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Text/SixteeN :)