On January 17, the national statistics released the relevant data of real estate investment and sales in December 2022, so far the release of real estate investment and sales data for the whole year of 2022 has been released.
Overall, the cumulative total real estate investment in 2022 will be 13.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%; The cumulative sales amount of commercial housing was 13.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%, the cumulative area was 1.358 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%, and the area of commercial housing for sale at the end of the year was 564 million square meters, an increase of 11% year-on-year; The average sales price of commercial housing was 9814 yuan/㎡, a year-on-year decrease of 3.21%.
Here's the details:
1. Real estate investment and sales in December
(1) Real estate investment in December
Real estate investment in December was 903.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.21%, of which residential investment was 663 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%; The investment in office buildings was 46.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.25%; Investment in commercial business premises was 80.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%.
The year-on-year decrease in real estate investment mainly comes from two reasons, one is the decrease in the amount of land purchase by housing enterprises in the same period, and the other is the decrease in the construction area in the same period, resulting in a decrease in the investment of housing enterprises. In December, the land transaction amount of housing enterprises was 157.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.34%, and the land acquisition area was 15.97 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 51.65%.
From the perspective of the months of the year, June is the high point of real estate investment, the monthly investment scale reached 1.62 trillion yuan, after November, the monthly investment scale fell below one trillion yuan, according to the current land acquisition and construction area situation, it is expected that the recovery of real estate investment scale has greater uncertainty.
(2) Sales of commercial housing in December
In December, the sales of commercial housing were 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.65%, of which residential sales were 1.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.7%; office sales were 68.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.79%; Sales of commercial business premises amounted to RMB87 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 46.2%.
In December, the sales area of commercial housing was 146 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.52%, of which residential sales were 119 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.49%; office sales were 4.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.98%; The sales of commercial business premises were 10.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 33.71%.
The average sales price of commercial housing in December was 10,050 yuan / ㎡, up 5.65% year-on-year. Among them, the average residential price was 10,550 yuan/㎡, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The average price of office space was 15428 yuan/㎡, a year-on-year increase of 12.58%; The average price of commercial business premises was 8657 yuan/㎡, a year-on-year decrease of 18.84%.
On the surface, although the average price of commercial housing has increased year-on-year, combined with the rise and fall of residential prices of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country announced by the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day, the reason for the increase in the national average price may be due to the relatively small transaction volume of low-level and low-house price areas, while the transaction volume of commercial housing in high-level and high-housing price areas accounts for relatively large, resulting in statistical results.
At the same time, we see that among the three product categories of residential, commercial and office, the average sales price of commercial business premises is the lowest, and it decreases year-on-year. This is mainly due to the fact that, on the one hand, the distribution of commercial business premises in cities of all levels in the country is relatively balanced, and on the other hand, the actual transaction price of commercial business housing is indeed declining.
From the perspective of the months of the year, the "golden nine silver ten" has become a thing of the past, the high point of real estate sales is in June and December, and real estate sales are showing an increasingly strong correlation with the pre-enrollment period and year-end cash return. To some extent, it can also reflect that the diversity of customers is decreasing, and the unity of customers is increasing.
From the perspective of the average transaction price in each month of the year, July and August are the high points of house prices, while March and April are the low points of house prices.
2. Investment and sales from January to December 2022
(1) Cumulative real estate investment from January to December
1. Cumulative investment in real estate
From January to December, the cumulative investment in real estate was 13.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. Among them, residential investment was 1.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%; office investment was 529.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%; Investment in commercial business premises was 1.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%.
Similarly, the decrease in the scale of real estate investment mainly comes from the reduction of land acquisition amount and the reduction of real estate construction area.
From January to December, the cumulative amount of land purchased in real estate was 916.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.2%, the land acquisition area was 101 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 54.6%, and the real estate construction area was 9.05 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%.
2. Investment in various regions of the country
In terms of regions, according to the geographical division of the National Bureau of Statistics, the investment in the eastern region was 7.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%; investment in the central region was 2.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%; investment in the western region was 2.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%; The investment in Northeast China was 400.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.5%. Investment divergence between regions is clear.
(2) Cumulative sales of commercial housing from January to December
1. Cumulative sales amount
From January to December, the sales amount of commercial housing accumulated 13.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%. Among them, the cumulative sales of residential buildings were 11.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.6%; The cumulative sales of office were 452.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%; The cumulative sales of commercial were 812.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%.
2. Cumulative sales area
From January to December, the sales area of commercial housing totaled 1.358 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%. Among them, the cumulative sales of residential area were 1.146 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.65%; The cumulative sales area of office was 32.64 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; The cumulative sales area of commercial business premises was 82.39 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%.
3. Cumulative average sales price
From January to December, the cumulative average price of commercial housing sales was 9814 yuan/㎡, a year-on-year decrease of 3.21%. Among them, the cumulative average sales price of residential buildings was 10,185 yuan/㎡, a year-on-year decrease of 2.03%; The cumulative average sales price of office was 13,783 yuan/㎡, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%; The cumulative average sales price of commercial business premises was 9864 yuan/㎡, a year-on-year decrease of 7.93%.
Looking at the whole year, the cumulative average price of residential properties in a single month has also decreased compared to December. Among the three product categories, the average price of commercial business premises continued to fall the most.
3. Sales in various regions of the country
According to the geographical division of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales amount of commercial housing in the eastern region from January to December was 7.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and the sales area of commercial housing was 564 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23%; The sales amount in the central region was 2.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7%, and the sales area was 408 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%; The sales amount in the western region was 2.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.6%, and the sales area was 350 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.7%; The sales amount in Northeast China was 308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.9%, and the sales area was 41.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 37.9%.
The sales of commercial housing between regions are quite differentiated, and the northeast region lags significantly behind other regions.
4. Commercial housing for sale
At the end of the year, the area of commercial housing for sale was 564 million square meters, an increase of 11% year-on-year. Among them, the residential area for sale was 269 million square meters, an increase of 19.4% year-on-year; The office area for sale was 40.73 million square meters, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year; The area for sale of commercial business premises was 126 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. It can be clearly observed that the area for sale of residential and commercial has increased significantly year-on-year, and the area for sale of commercial business premises has been decreasing due to the incremental decrease in recent years.
Third, the situation of housing enterprises in place
By the end of December, the cumulative funds in place for housing enterprises were 14.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7%. Among them, domestic loans were 1.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.2%; the utilization of foreign capital was 7.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.7%; self-financing amounted to 5.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%; deposits and advance receipts amounted to RMB4.93 trillion, down 33.4% year-on-year; Personal mortgage loans amounted to 2.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%.
Among the funds in place for housing enterprises, the use of foreign capital decreased the most year-on-year, and the exchange rate with the US dollar rose, and most real estate enterprises actively or passively defaulted, resulting in a decrease in the credit of overseas bond issuance and a decrease in borrowing; The decline in deposits and advance receipts ranked second, mainly due to the sharp decline in commercial housing sales; The decrease in funds available for personal mortgage loans is the result of a combination of reduced sales scale and increased loan amount; The decrease in funds in place for housing enterprises is due to the decline in total sales, the slowdown in carryover, and the decline in profit margins, resulting in a small number of housing enterprises leaving the market after liquidation after sales collection, and the overall investment of remaining housing enterprises after carrying forward profits, but this phenomenon will improve after opening capital financing equity financing in December.
From the perspective of the proportion of various funding channels, self-financing, deposits and advance receipts are still the main ways for housing enterprises to raise funds, and the proportion of the two is getting higher and higher, from 62.78% at the beginning of the year to 68.62% at the end of the year; Although a strong financial support for real estate policies was implemented during the year, the overall borrowing and the trend of reduction in proportion did not improve, falling from 32.76% at the beginning of the year to 27.71%.
IV. Conclusion
Although in 2022, macro policies, whether in the supply side of the continuous adoption of financial support real estate policies, lending, bond issuance, equity financing multi-pronged to give active support, on the demand side, continue to reduce the purchase interest rate to increase the loan amount, according to the city's policies to different degrees of relaxation of purchase restrictions and sales policies, but in 2022 as a whole, real estate has seen a sharp decline in all aspects such as investment and sales, and the end of the year is still in a downward trend.
Looking forward to the future, if real estate wants to return to its former glory, it is almost impossible, affected by the sharp reduction in 2022, the year-on-year base in 2023 will be reduced, and the year-on-year indicator will not fall as much as in 2022, but the probability of a sustained slight decline in investment and sales still exists.
Affected by changes in basic social conditions such as the decrease in total population, the intensification of aging, and the slowdown of urbanization, the current real estate industry is still in the development stage of shrinking downward, market differentiation, new model exploration, and diversified supply, until a new market balance is achieved.