2022 can be described as the most difficult year for the buying market.
When talking about the situation of game launch this year, I often hear my friends complain:
Now domestic games are becoming more and more difficult to do, first the version limit, then the anti-addiction policy, coupled with a large number of strong launches of small games, it is really a belly enemy. The cost of buying is getting higher and higher, and the boss is also stricter about recycling cards, and he can't grab the amount at all, and he feels that he has entered a bottleneck period.
Liu Wuhua, founder and CEO of Sail to the Sea, and others once mentioned on Chinajoy that "if you don't go out to sea, you are out", and it has become a saying in the mobile game track.
Many mobile game companies have no choice but to transform their layout in overseas markets. However, the owner of a game company that has transformed overseas has also revealed that there are many overseas opportunities, but they also face many thresholds.
How will mobile game purchases increase in 2023?
Just recently, Heat Cloud Data and Sensor Tower jointly released the "2022 Global Mobile Game Purchase White Paper", which provides a comprehensive and in-depth insight and analysis of domestic mobile game purchases and global mobile game purchases in 2022, and the content is very detailed, which I believe can help everyone bring more business inspiration in terms of purchase volume.
01
Chinese mainland mobile game market
1. The domestic mobile game buying market continues to be sluggish, and the stock market is seriously involuted
Affected by the version number problem, the domestic mobile game market was sluggish for a while.
From August 2021 to March 2022, the domestic game industry experienced an eight-month suspension of version issuance, and did not resume until April 2022. As of December 2022, the number of game version numbers issued was 512, a sharp decrease of 32% from last year and the lowest value since 2016. After removing the gap period, the average number of monthly release numbers in 2022 is also less than in 2021.
Coupled with the impact of the epidemic in recent years, the stay-at-home economy has first brought more download demand to the game industry and brought a wave of incremental dividends.
However, the overall macroeconomic environment is up, people's income is unstable, resulting in the overall weakening of consumption power, and the ability to pay for mobile games is also weakened, resulting in a significant decline in the scale of mobile game revenue.
And the CPA on the buying side continues to soar, which has long exceeded the scope that many small and medium-sized companies can afford, and only a batch of products in the head and middle waist are continuing to be launched.
In 2022, the total number of mobile game purchases and products launched in the market will be about 20,300, the lowest in the past three years.
Among them, the proportion of novice tours has further shrunk, accounting for only about 50%, down 7% from last year. The decline in the total number of launches and the decline in the proportion of new products indicate that the competition intensity of the market has further increased.
Although the head and mid-waist products continue to be launched, the marketing strategies of major listed game companies have also changed from extensive to intensive, and more attention is paid to quantifiable marketing effects and refined operations in terms of purchase volume, and advertisers are more pragmatic about cost-effective control.
In addition, according to the content of this white paper, the total number of launched products has decreased, but the number of creative groups has increased. It can be seen that the involution of existing game products is very serious.
2. The performance of HYIP is more prominent in the purchase volume of mobile games in 2022, and in 2023, "HYIP +" type games may be developed
According to the white paper data, in the 2022 purchase volume of Top500 mobile game products, in the distribution of each game type, role-playing and HYIP are almost equally divided, both belong to the first echelon of buying type, each accounting for nearly 30%, the performance is more prominent.
However, among the top 30 mobile game products with an average daily purchase volume, HYIP has an absolute advantage.
Whether it is among the non-new mobile games in 2022 or among the newly added mobile game products, the HYIP category is among the best, accounting for 45-50%. This may be closely related to the characteristics of short life cycle, fast iteration, diverse gameplay, strong variability, and high dependence on purchase volume to acquire customers.
It can also be seen from the top 30 purchases of non-new mobile games that the HYIP category has gradually revealed the possibility of long-term operation, which may be directly related to the changes in "HYIP + X" in recent years.
Hyip products mainly earn marketing revenue by retaining users to watch advertisements, and most of them are in the form of red envelopes to attract users.
But the types of gameplay are diverse, whether it is HYIP novels, HYIP short videos, and HYIP mini games, they are more popular in the sinking market.
This also inspires us that the "HYIP+" series may become the general direction of gameplay innovation to be explored in depth in 2023.
For example: HYIP + elimination games, such as Bubble Park, connect the elements of the same bubble in the game to eliminate them, accumulate park points to achieve the goal of clearing the level, and achieve the level to earn money;
HYIP + tower defense games, such as destroying the circle, killing the mutant in the game can obtain the corresponding energy value, the energy value is the key to making money, it is directly exchanged for RMB withdrawal;
HYIP + quiz games, such as the strongest brain-burning family, answering questions to become the richest man, guessing idioms, guessing questions, guessing brain teasers in the game... Yes.
As long as the mini-game itself meets the user's preferences, combined with the HYIP attribute, it is very likely to open the market.
3. Alliance media and short videos become the head buying volume preference media
According to the insight into the types of domestic mobile game buying media in 2022, it can be seen from the white paper's insight into the most popular media.
Whether it is a new mobile game or a non-new one in 2022, the proportion of alliance media investment exceeds 50%.
In addition to affiliate media, the proportion of short video and music investment is also relatively high, especially the short video category has exceeded 15%.
It can be seen that the users of the game itself have a wide coverage and a relatively wide range of types.
The characteristics of alliance media and short video media are also that the number of apps covered is large, the population covered is relatively wide, and it can bring more exposure opportunities, and the two are just matched.
Therefore, advertisers who buy games need to pay attention to alliance media, short video media, and pan-entertainment media with the same characteristics when buying volume in 2023.
Party A's friends who are doing HYIP mini games around me also said:
The HYIP mini-game itself attaches great importance to the retention effect, and the amount of poor retention is equal to waste.
Therefore, the previous purchase volume has always felt that the traffic of these alliance locations is more mixed, and the retention and back-end effects may not be good, and it is almost impossible for the agency's partners to put these media, and the effect is still relatively unexpected after trying.
Not only is it sufficient in magnitude, it can cover users in a large area, and under the optimization of the oCPX model, it can also meet the requirements of retention, and the magnitude has also doubled several times compared with before.
This also reminds us that we should not be too subjective when choosing to put media, or test more, pay attention to the market in time, adjust our buying strategy, and prevent news blockage from leading to losses Better buying volume choices.
4. Modern and legendary mobile games occupy half of the purchase volume in 2022, and 2023 may open up another way from the perspective of the theme
Compared with last year, the theme of head mobile games is still 5 categories: modern, legendary, fairy, magical, and Three Kingdoms, and has not changed.
In particular, modern themes account for about 36%, followed by legends, accounting for 20%. Especially among the products that bought the Top500 in 2022, modern themes are even stronger, accounting for more than 50%, far ahead of other themes.
After a long period of baptism of the same type of theme, users may expect the new theme to bring refreshing effects, and mobile game advertisers can also take the theme as an innovative angle.
5. In the second half of the year, the proportion of video materials decreased, and all kinds of mobile games favored image materials
So what are the big changes in the types of mobile game advertisers buying volume materials in 2022?
According to the data of this white paper, the proportion of material types in several major categories of games has changed significantly since the second half of 2022:
The proportion of video material in the role-playing category decreased from 60-64% in the first half of the year to 42%-51% in the second half of the year. The proportion of video material in SLG decreased from 53-58% in the first half of the year to 40-42% in the second half of the year. In particular, the change in casual puzzles was the most obvious, from 60-75% in the first half of the year to 30-41% in the second half of the year.
This data sends us several signals:
1. Affected by the decline in game revenue levels and the increase in purchase costs, major game types have begun to control the cost of material production, reduce the number of video materials, and increase the number of picture materials with lower production costs.
2. Video materials have been rolled up to a certain extent, video creative innovation has encountered bottlenecks, and image materials have begun to become a new incremental means for all kinds of mobile games.
3. The advertising space traffic that can be preempted by only video materials has reached saturation, and more new advertising space traffic has begun to be explored through pictures.
Optimizers who have done it from the age of pictures will think: aren't all pictures the types of materials that have been eliminated by video? I never thought that I would pick up the picture again, and the grab effect could be so impressive.
And the optimizer who has only started to do it since the video era will think: since I entered the industry, I have been listening to everyone talk about video, studying videos, I don't know that there are still picture materials to use, let alone that some of the original placements can only cast pictures, I always thought that videos can run all placements.
There are many optimizers with the above ideas, and the root cause is the lack of overall understanding of the delivery channel and the lack of innovation ability of buying strategy. However, this is also caused by insufficient entry time and weak strategy ability.
Usually, you can take "paying attention to the analysis of the buying trend of the broader market" as a habit, because there are always people or companies who are ahead of others in terms of buying volume strategy, and their past experience has confirmed a truth: the first mover eats meat, the last to drink soup, and the late one suffers.
Strategy-first makes it easier to grab traffic dividends. Since we can't do the earliest innovative buying strategy, we can only follow closely and keep open.
The data on the proportion of purchase volume material types has given us some new purchase volume inspiration, in the process of launching major categories of mobile games in 2023, in addition to paying attention to video materials, image materials also need to pay special attention.
In addition to focusing on the original largest percentage of materials, it is also necessary to expand the number of sizes and durations, because different ad slots may allow different ad sizes, and the purpose is to explore more new ad slot traffic.
If you have never tried live video materials in the past or rarely try live materials, you can also try the live video routines of the non-game industry in your own products, which may bring unexpected incremental effects.
02
Global mobile gaming market
1. Global mobile game downloads and revenue have declined, but they are still at a high level in recent years, and the situation is relatively optimistic than in China
In recent years, affected by the epidemic, version number, anti-addiction, macroeconomic situation, etc., the domestic market has been sluggish, and many game manufacturers have begun to go out to sea.
The sea fever has also allowed many mobile games to taste the sweetness of dividends, but the overseas market has also cooled down in 2022.
According to the data of the white paper, as of November 2022, the global mobile game revenue data and download data have also shown different degrees of decline, although the total number of downloads has decreased but basically flat, the total revenue has decreased by 9%, which is more optimistic than the domestic mobile game market. (Total domestic revenue fell 17%)
2. The global mature market is slightly weak, and the emerging market is thriving; Overseas markets are still promising in 2023
Since the overseas market is relatively optimistic than that of China, what are the most suitable countries/regions for domestic mobile games to go overseas in 2023?
According to the data in this white paper on the "distribution of the proportion of products launched in major countries/regions where domestic mobile games go overseas", it can be seen:
The United States is still the country with the strongest domestic mobile game overseas purchase, followed by Southeast Asia, Japan, China's Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, South Korea, and Brazil.
As a popular game overseas market in recent years, Brazil's differences from the other popular regions mentioned above are gradually decreasing.
With their geographical and cultural advantages, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are more preferred by newcomers to travel to sea in 2022, with the highest proportion of new games going to sea, followed by Southeast Asia and the United States. These mature overseas buying countries can still be used as a must-choose overseas area in 2023.
So is it enough to buy in 2023 only these mature overseas buying areas? The answer, of course, is no.
Let's take a look at the data of a set of white papers: the number of global mobile game downloads in 2022 is basically the same as last year.
Although the buying volume in the mature markets of Europe and the United States is slightly weak, it is still in a more optimistic growth trend in emerging markets, such as Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
In addition, from the white paper global mobile game revenue distribution data, it can also be seen that the global mobile game revenue in 2022 decreased by 9.2% compared with 2021, which shows that the mobile market dividend brought by the new crown epidemic is fading, especially the user consumption in the head market, such as the United States, China, Japan, and South Korea.
However, revenues in some emerging markets are still growing, such as Brazil, Indonesia and India, which rose by 13.7%, 6.8% and 40.3% respectively. Therefore, these emerging markets cannot be ignored when buying abroad.
Originally, in 21 years, the domestic involution began to be serious, and many small partners who were domestic began to rush overseas, but when they really participated in the overseas market, they found out: "It turns out that the overseas market is no longer a blue ocean, and the purchase volume of many countries has also become saturated, or even declined, which is also relatively rolled." ”
I believe that after reading the above set of data, it can also rekindle the confidence of many small partners and understand the real status of the current overseas launch: after all, whether it is a mature buying country or an emerging country that has just tapped its potential, it has only tapped a very limited number of countries and regions in the world, and the overseas market is still promising.
When buying mobile games in 2023, in mature markets such as Europe, the United States, China, Japan and South Korea, you can choose some unpopular categories and achieve the purpose of breaking the circle and gaining customers by doing some integration or innovation in gameplay and themes;
If it is a popular game category, you can also focus on these emerging markets: Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa to achieve the purpose of significant expansion. Along this line, we need to tap the potential of these emerging markets while exploring other emerging markets as soon as possible.
3. The proportion of video materials has increased, becoming an indispensable "weapon" for accelerating global game purchases; The absorption capacity of live-action video footage is stronger, and it can be further accelerated in 2023
After selecting the purchase volume area, let's take a look at the purchase volume material. According to the data of the white paper, it can be seen that the proportion of video content has exceeded 60%, and the proportion of video material at both ends will continue to expand in the second half of 2022.
Moreover, in the second half of the year, all types of mobile games are increasing the proportion of video advertising, which shows that video advertising has a stronger absorption capacity than image materials, and has become a necessary weapon for mobile games to accelerate the purchase volume of overseas purchases.
According to the insight of Hot Cloud data, it is not difficult to find that the current purchase materials of mobile games around the world are mainly text, image ads, and pure game video ads.
The types of materials that have been verified to be effective in domestic mobile game purchases include: text ads, image ads, pure game video ads, live vegan video ads, real KOLs, KOC video ads, live star video ads, 3D animation materials and other forms.
Among them, the production cost of "live vegan video plot advertising" and "real KOL\KOC advertising" is not very high, but it has been proved in the domestic market that "the absorption capacity is much stronger than that of pure game video advertising".
However, at present, the proportion of mobile games going overseas is very small, and many mobile games have almost no live-action materials, and you can optimize students in the follow-up delivery, and you can learn from the process of making materials.
03
epilogue
According to the "2022 Global Mobile Game Purchase White Paper" jointly released by Hot Cloud Data and Sensor Tower, both domestic and global mobile game launches have been more or less affected by comprehensive factors such as the economic situation, industry and national policies, and mini programs, and have declined in 2022.
However, advertisers are also actively seeking new opportunities, and game categories, media placements, themes, material types, and new overseas markets may be new ways to increase in 2023.
In addition, according to the observation of hot cloud data, we also found that real human materials are still in the initial development stage in overseas markets, or can become a way to try to achieve an incremental explosion in 2023, especially the successful running routines that have been verified in China can be further tried in overseas markets.