[Text/Observer Network columnist Xu Shicheng]
The windows of the presidential palace are damaged, furniture is scattered, the Capitol is flooded, documents are scattered all over the place...
A week after Lula took office as Brazil's president for the third time on January 1, 2023, thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro broke through the cordon and forcibly entered the Capitol, the Federal Supreme Court and the presidential palace in the Plaza of Three Powers in the capital Brasilia, smashing and looting, and clashing with military and police.
Hours later, Brazilian police and security forces regained control of these state authorities. Intruders reportedly vandalized the windows and furniture of the presidential palace, flooded parts of the Capitol and looted several Supreme Court chambers.
After being stormed by demonstrators, several Brazilian authorities were in chaos. Source: Visual China
President Lula, who was visiting the state of São Paulo, was visiting the state of São Paulo and held a local news conference at a press conference where he strongly condemned the vandalism of the intruders, accusing former President Bolsonaro of being responsible for instigating these "fanatical fascists" behind it, and vowing that "all these people will be found and punished."
Lula signed an executive decree authorizing the Federal Government to intervene in the security management of the region from now until January 30, during which time the management of public security in the capital region will be under the responsibility of Ricardo Capelli, Permanent Deputy Minister of Justice.
In the evening of the same day, the Presidential Guard and Army units completed the clearance of the Sanquan Square, the seat of the state authority, and the political core of Brazil's federal government was returned to government control. President Lula then rushed from São Paulo back to the capital, Brasilia, and inspected the destruction of the presidential palace and the Supreme Court.
After the brutal assault on state authority, Ibaneis Rocha, the administrator of the Federal District in the Brazilian capital, announced the dismissal of Anderson Torres, the head of public security in the Federal District, who was the justice minister in Bolsonaro's government.
Brazil's version of the "congressional riot" continues to ferment: the military forces of Rio de Janeiro take measures. Source: Visual China
On January 9, President Lula met with the leaders of Congress and the Supreme Court and issued a joint statement condemning the "terrorist act" that took place in Brasilia on the 8th, and the Minister of the Federal Supreme Court, Alexandre de Moraes, announced that the governor of the Federal District, Ibanis Rocha, belonging to the right-wing Democratic Movement of Brazil MDB, had been removed from office for 90 days due to the alleged riots, until the incident was clarified. On the same day, more than 400 intruders were arrested. On the 10th, about 1,500 intruders were detained for investigation. Brazil's Federal Attorney General, Augusto Aras, has asked the Federal District authorities to investigate and hold the intruders accountable.
The cause of the riots in Brasilia
Everyone can't help but ask: when Lula came to power, why did the riots in Brasilia occur? In the author's opinion, there are mainly the following four reasons.
First, Lula won by a narrow margin, with nearly half of the voters supporting Bolsonaro.
Lula, leader of Brazil's leftist Workers' Party, was sworn in in the Brazilian Congress on January 1, 2023. Lula was elected president by a narrow margin of 1.8% in the second round of voting on October 30, 2022, with 50.9% of the vote, defeating Bolsonaro (49.10%).
Lula was elected president for two terms between 2003 and 2010, the third time he became Brazil's head of state after 12 years. Lula's third term faced greater political, economic, social and diplomatic challenges than ever before.
On the political front, it is its top priority to win political allies to ease the serious political antagonism at home; On the economic front, curbing inflation and promoting growth is the main issue that needs to be solved urgently, and the government's policy balance will be tested; In terms of society, the tasks of protecting people's livelihood and promoting development, eradicating hunger, and giving priority to helping low-income families are arduous. In terms of diplomacy, it is imperative to reverse the anti-globalization tendencies of the Bolsonaro government and restore the image of pluralistic and autonomous diplomacy of major countries.
Second, Lula confronts a divided Brazilian society.
Brazil has 26 states, plus the capital Brasilia Federal District with a total of 27 administrative units. In last year's election, Lula and his supporters won 14 states. Bolsonaro's right-wing supporters won 13 states, including the capital Federal District and Brazil's wealthiest states of São Paulo, Rio de Jano and Minas Gerais.
Of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the Labour Party and its coalition party, the left, hold only 141 (27 percent), the right-wing Liberal Party (Bolsonaro's party) holds 249 seats (49 percent), and centrist and independents hold 123 (24 percent). Of the 81 seats in the Senate, the left holds 13 (16 percent), the right 36 (44 percent) and centrist and independents 32 (40 percent).
It can be seen that Lula faces a right-wing and centrist predominance in the House of Representatives and Senate. Therefore, any reform proposal that Lula submits to Congress, if it wants to be approved by Congress, must win the support of a part of opposition and opposition lawmakers, which undoubtedly makes it difficult for him to govern.
Share of seats by party in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies.
Lula's new Brazilian cabinet consists of 37 ministers, composed of 9 political parties, left, center and right, including 10 from Lula's PT, 3 from the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PDB), 3 from Vice President Alkmin's Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), 3 from the Brazilian Union Party (UB), 3 from the Democratic Socialist Party (PSD), 1 from the Democratic Labour Party (PDT), 1 from the Communist Party (PCdB), 1 from the Socialist and Liberal Party (PSOL), and 1 from the Continuous Liaison Party (REDE). There are 11 non-party figures. Among them were 11 women ministers, 5 blacks and 2 Indians. This shows that Lula had to arrange dissident as ministers in order to coordinate the different political forces in the country.
Age, affiliation, gender, ethnic composition of the members of Lula's new government.
In addition, there is a sharp contradiction between Brazil's three powers—executive (government), legislative (Congress) and judicial (Federal High Court). Although Bolsonaro lost the election, he would not rest on his laurels, and the forces that supported him, such as farmers and exporters, a considerable number of military officers and evangelicals, governors of the South and Southeast, and Midwestern states, remained, and they would not willingly obey Lula's leadership.
In his inaugural speech, Lula stressed, "This victory is a victory for the democratic movement. "From today, I will lead 215 million Brazilians, not just those who voted for me." There are no two Brazils, we are one country, a great people. "The new government wants to lift 33 million people out of hunger and lift more than 100 million people out of poverty."
Third, since the results of the general election at the end of October last year, thousands of Bolsonaro's supporters have been gathering in front of the army headquarters in Brasilia, holding signs demanding "federal intervention" by the military to prevent Lula's inauguration. In the three days after the election, truckers set up hundreds of roadblocks across the country.
Fourth, the riots in Brasilia show that right-wing forces in Brazil and Latin America are attacking left-wing governments and left-wing forces in Brazil and Latin America. And this right-wing force is supported by former US President Donald Trump.
On November 18-19, the Political Conference on Action of the Conservative Party (CPAC), founded in 1971, was held for the first time in a Latin American country (Mexico City), and Trump himself delivered a video speech in which he threatened that "we need to stop the spread of socialism and not let it continue to drive us out of our region or our land."
The CPAC, an action organization of the far-right conservative coalition in the United States, has tried in recent years to extend its influence to Latin America and other regions, and the purpose of the conference is to try to stop the spread of socialism in Latin America and oppose progressive organizations such as the São Paulo Forum and the Puebla Group. Invited to attend the meeting in person were Bolsonaro's son, Rep. Eduardo Bolsonaro, Argentine far-right Representative Javier Milei, Bolivian right-wing Santa Cruz governor Luis Camacho, former Polish President Walesa, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, U.S. Senator Cruz and others.
It is worth paying attention to the attitude of the US government to this incident. The U.S. State Department said Jan. 9 that if Bolsonaro entered the United States on a diplomatic visa, he would have to leave at the end of the month or apply for a different visa. Some U.S. lawmakers have called for Bolsonaro's expulsion, and Bolsonaro, who is in Miami, USA, has denied involvement in the incident.
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was hospitalized in the United States for "abdominal pain". Source: Visual China
US President Joe Biden condemned the incident on January 8, calling the riots in Brazil "outrageous." On January 9, U.S. President Joe Biden, who is attending the 10th North American Trilateral Summit in Mexico, spoke with Brazil's new President Lula, in which Biden expressed U.S. "unwavering support" for democracy in Brazil and invited Lula to visit the White House early next month, and Lula accepted the invitation. The commentary believes that the Biden administration's attitude towards the riots in Brazil reflects the struggle between the two parties in the United States over the riots at the US Capitol.
The presidents of Mexico, Argentina, Cuba, Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Chile and other Latin American countries, leaders of France, Germany, Spain and other European countries, and leaders of international organizations such as the Secretary-General of the United Nations condemned the violent incident.
Domestic and foreign affairs of Lula's new government
At the time of the riots, Lula was inspecting the torrential rains in the state of São Paulo. The new president, who is committed to lifting the Brazilian people out of poverty and owns "coffee and bread", began to live up to his promise as soon as he took office.
In terms of domestic affairs, when Lula came to power, he signed more than a dozen presidential decrees. These include: a moratorium on arms procurement; withdrew plans to privatize eight state-owned enterprises, including Petrobras and Logistics Corporation; Extend federal tax exemptions for fuel; resumed operations of the Amazon Fund; reactivation of the Bolsa Família (Family Allowance) scheme, which provides R$600 (about US$ 112) per month to the poorest families; Signing decrees to raise the minimum wage and tax reforms, etc.
Brazilian President Lula rushes back to the capital The Brazilian government regains control of the federal political core. Source: Visual China
At the same time, Lula proposed the "Brazilian Reconstruction and Transformation Plan", which advocates the fight against poverty and social inequality and overcoming the neoliberal model that has led to the country's decline. Key points include:
1. Put the country's "poor and workers in the budget" and work to eradicate hunger and social inequality.
2. Abolish the spending cap and review Brazil's current tax system to build a new tax system that is credible, predictable, and sustainable.
3. Coordinate economic policies to eliminate inflation and address food, fuel and electricity shortages.
4. Resume investment in infrastructure and housing.
5. Solidarity, fair and sustainable tax reform.
6. Reinstate policies that emphasize minimum wages and restore workers' purchasing power.
7. Reformulation of anti-corruption instruments.
8 Strengthening legislation.
9. Protection of civil rights, guarantees and individual freedoms.
10. Enact new labor laws.
11. Rebuilding and strengthening of social assistance systems, etc.
In terms of diplomacy, Lula promised that the future government will overcome international isolation, reposition Brazil as the world's protagonist, restore an independent and proactive foreign policy, promote democratic dialogue and respect the right of peoples to self-determination; Brazil will reinvest in regional integration, Mercosur and other Latin American initiatives, as well as dialogue with BRICS, African countries, the European Union and the United States; Break down isolation, restore successful foreign policies, and expand foreign trade and technical cooperation to promote fairer and more democratic relations between nations.
"Today, we want to tell the world that Brazil is back," Lula said. Brazil cannot be left behind by the world. We will re-establish the credibility, predictability and stability of the country so that investors at home and abroad can regain confidence in Brazil. "We want to rebuild our partnership with the United States and the European Union on a new basis... We will once again fight for a new global governance that allows more countries to join the UN Security Council and ends the veto that upsets the balance among states. ”
Lula also stressed the need to strengthen South-South cooperation and multilateral relations, treating developing countries as important partners and committing to a new global order of multilateralism, respect for national sovereignty, peace, inclusiveness and sustainable environmental development. Lula has immediately resumed relations with the Maduro government in Venezuela since he came to power.
On January 5, Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Brazil's return to CELAC and Lula will travel to Argentina on January 24 to participate in the 7th CELAC Summit. The Lula government will improve relations with left-wing Latin American countries, promote Latin American unity and integration, and focus on restoring the Union of South American Nations.
Lula, on the other hand, has also set his sights on China. Before becoming president, Lula said he planned to visit China in the first quarter of 2023. Lula's return will also promote high-quality cooperation between China and Pakistan.
China-Pakistan economic and trade cooperation is the stabilizer and ballast stone of bilateral relations. In 2021, China-Pakistan trade reached a record US$164.06 billion in a row, achieving contrarian growth during the epidemic. According to the Huajing Industry Research Institute, the import and export volume of bilateral goods between China and Brazil from January to November 2022 was US$159 billion, an increase of 5% year-on-year, and the two sides will actively promote cooperation in sustainable development such as clean energy, public health, and poverty reduction.
The two sides will also take the BRICS cooperation mechanism as an opportunity to promote practical results in BRICS membership expansion and monetary cooperation, and set a model for South-South cooperation. In addition, the two sides will use platforms such as the G20, WTO, IMF and World Bank to unite developing countries to strengthen cooperation on global governance issues, and contribute developing countries' solutions and wisdom in implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, addressing climate change, and building national security.
Lula is facing an old Brazil, but for China, we are more looking forward to the return of Lula to build a new Brazil. For Lula, the challenges of being in the "backyard of the United States" have just begun.
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