To all the civilians who appeared before me, listening to your tireless explanations and warnings saved me from making some terrible mistakes. Thank you.
"As a bitcoin newbie, I think this time is different." — I (and every Bitcoin supporter past, present, and future)
The above statement was something I said to my wife a few weeks ago, before the massacre brought us down to $20,000 again. I'm sure this time is different. Bitcoin will no longer have 70% withdrawals. This is the moment when super bitcoinization and Bitcoin soars above $100,000. This is when Bitcoin became the world's reserve currency.
It is... Until, it is not. Don't get me wrong, that day will still come. It's just a little further than I originally thought.
The purpose of this article is not to repeat what all Bitcoiners who have been here before already know; More as a warning for future Bitcoin newcomers. When you approach Bitcoin, you think, "This time is different." Thankfully, I entered at this price before it took off and never came back! You think, "Thankfully, bear markets and retracements are a thing of the past." That is, you will think of all the wrong things, and you will think of them immediately.
To give you a perspective, this is my Bitcoin journey.
I first heard about Bitcoin in 2012, when filmmaker Nick Mross, who I worked with, posted on Facebook a documentary he was directing. It didn't have a title at the time, but eventually became the movie "The Rise of Bitcoin." I looked into it and considered guessing, but like everyone, my next thought was, "It's going to be hacked."
The next year, I saw the price rise to $100 per bitcoin, and I was going to put in $1,000 and get 10 bitcoins, but like everyone else, I thought I was too late and would definitely lose my money. Instead, I used that money to stay a few more days on my honeymoon. "Hey dear, I only paid $200,000 to give us three extra nights during our honeymoon," I should say.
I told the story to Ben Prentice and the heavily armed clowns, and they reassured me that if I bought 10 bitcoins for $1,000, I would sell them for $1,200 and thought I was a genius. Never said anything more true.
For a while afterward, Bitcoin was something I studied occasionally, but not enough to fully understand. In 2017, the price soared and I was too late again – $10,000 in Bitcoin was too expensive for me. It definitely crashed, and this time I paid enough attention to it that I felt it made sense when it did. It's over; Bitcoin is dead, but it has been around until 2018. It didn't die. Then I started looking more closely to see if it would bounce back, and it did. By spring 2020, I was ready to turn FOMO into Bitcoin.
At the beginning of the pandemic, it started with "we own a little bit of Bitcoin" and quickly escalated to "liquidate everything and buy as much as we can!" I was determined to buy as much as I could before it hit its previous all-time high of $20,000 again. I did it, and then Bitcoin started running. It exceeded $15,000. I'm a genius! It broke above $20,000. My IQ is growing in seconds!
When it broke through $30,000, I started telling people how I was 100% sure this was going to happen. I even thought of another great idea that no one else had thought of, "I'm going to start a podcast!" About Bitcoin! "The "Bitcoin Made Simple" podcast network is the only good thing at this stage, not because I'm good at podcasting or learning about Bitcoin, but because the interviews I do have made me more aware of how little I know about Bitcoin and how much I have to learn.
Then Elon Musk invested. I know I'm smart, but now I'm smarter than the only person sending into space a rocket shaped like a male genitalia.
Bitcoin breaks through $40,000. I try to get everyone I know to invest before taking off and running out of $100,000. My streaming platform, Movies Plus, just attracted investors, and I convinced them to invest in Bitcoin in its entirety because of "To tHe MoOn!" ”
Bitcoin broke through $50,000. I was so ahead of my time that I made Hal Finney look like a rookie.
Then it broke through $60,000. It was Satoshi Nakamoto and me. We did it together, just the two of us.
And then suddenly, it backtracked a little. I confidently told people that this was the expected drop, because at one point I saw someone post a chart with an arrow. "Just look at S2F (inventory-to-flow) and it's only going to go up from now on."
Then, the bottom fell off. It fell to $30,000! What happened?! This must be Musk's fault. What an idiot. On the day it crashed, I even texted Guy Swann saying, "So did I get a bear market badge today?" When I typed it out, I really blushed. I was naïve. I might as well tattoo, "Hey, I'm new to Bitcoin." Here's how I'm going to fix it," on my forehead.
On summer nights in 2021, I slammed those in power on Twitter Spaces, pushing everyone to fight for freedom, but I noticed that I slowly stopped talking about how much I knew about Bitcoin. Realized I didn't know anything about Bitcoin. I need to shut up and learn. It was then that I thought I finally understood Matt Odell's famous quote: "Be humble and calm down." I went back to humility, back to just piling up sitting and studying.
Then Bitcoin started bouncing back and I thought, "Wow, I'm lucky, we only went down 50 percent." "Bitcoin is soaring to all-time highs, so I'm "confused" and go all-in.
Once we get back above $60,000, we all know it's like that. This is the moment we are waiting for. To hell, look at the tweets I sent at the top of the price action.
No one saw what would happen next. (Except for HODL Magoo, whose explanation you can hear in this podcast.) Prices were again pushed down. It went down and down, and then landed in the range where we were trapped throughout the summer of 2021. "It's okay," I thought. "The argument hasn't changed, and I still haven't experienced the greatest pain."
At this point, I began to adopt my own advice: invest only money that can remain the same for more than four years (sorry, the "zero" gang), keep your head down, find a way to crush it in "fiat" to mine the world to increase your cash flow, and pile up Bitcoin. Or, as Odell puts it, "Be humble and quiet." ”
Finally understood: Bitcoin is a test of many things, but what it really tests is your ability to remain humble. Modesty goes a long way in life. Thanks to Bitcoin, I am trying to become more humble in all aspects of my life.
I'm happy to be humiliated, but even happier that I don't have to deal with those drawdowns over 70% because "this time is different". Until recently, when this period began to look like a thing of the past.
It wasn't until recently that I understood why the "stay humble" part was so important. If you hang out on Twitter and pay attention to emotions, almost everyone will get frustrated. They have done everything they can to feel like everyone is retreating into a corner. Everyone, that is, except for those real civilians who have been here before and will not go anywhere. Follow their lead. That's why it's so important to stay humble, and it can help you stay humble during tough times.
Bitcoin has nothing to do with me and nothing to do with you. It's a chance to escape the clutches of the fiat world. It won't happen on your schedule and won't wait until you're ready. It will simply continue to produce blocks one by one.
So, if you are new to this field, listen to your fellow citizens, those who have lived through hell but are still standing. They are people to listen to. If they try to sell you tokens other than Bitcoin, block and move on. If they seem too "toxic", then honestly, they are just trying to do your best for you. Ask questions, learn from their mistakes, and most importantly ... Be humble and persevere, because next time won't be different from the last one – until one day it won't.