On November 14, 2022, Japan's Defense Agency, which monitors Russian naval activities, issued an announcement that the missile cruiser Varyag, the flagship of the Russian Pacific Fleet, accompanied by the large anti-submarine ship Admiral Tribates and three auxiliary ships, entered the East China Sea through the Bass Strait on November 13, preparing to return to its home port of Vladivostok. This daily report may seem prosaic, but when combined with the previous surveillance, it makes a lot of sense.
Thousands of miles of reinforcements returned empty-handed
According to previous surveillance reports, the task force with the two Russian capital ships as the core traveled south to the Indian Ocean through the Tsushima Strait on December 29, 2021, stopping at various ports such as Cochin, India, and Chabahar, Iran, and finally entered the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal on February 2, 2022, where it stayed for nine months until October this year.
■ Reports of the Japanese Defense Agency on the operational movements of the Russian Varyag formation in December 2021 and November 2022.
Coincidentally, the missile cruiser "Marshal Ustinov" of the Russian Northern Fleet, the large anti-submarine ship "Vice Admiral Kurakov", the frigate "Admiral Kasatonov" and the oil tanker "Viazma" arrived in the Mediterranean on February 7, 2022, and stayed for several months with the "Varyag" formation until August. It is worth noting that "Varyag" and "Ustinov" happen to be sister ships of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet "Moskva", and "Tribates", "Kurakov" are also the main forces of the Russian Navy of the first rank.
■ The missile cruiser "Marshal Ustinov" of the Russian Navy, which is attached to the Russian Northern Fleet.
On the eve of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian Navy's concentration of several capital ships to the Mediterranean Sea is obviously quite meaningful, and there are at least two purposes: first, to monitor NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean Sea and prevent them from intervening in the upcoming Russian-Ukrainian conflict from the sea; The second is to enter the Black Sea to support the Black Sea Fleet when necessary. The first goal should have been achieved, but the second was completely in vain, especially after the sinking of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet "Moskva" and the attack on the home port of Sevastopol, it is a pity that the above-mentioned capital ships could not come to the rescue.
■ On April 13, 2022, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, was hit hard by a missile attack.
If 3 Glorious class ships gather in the Black Sea, plus 2 dreadnought-class large anti-submarine ships, it will multiply the strength of the Black Sea Fleet and control the Black Sea sea supremacy more powerfully. However, the reasons that prevented this scenario from being realized were very simple and clear, because Turkey, in accordance with the 1936 Convention on the Montreux Strait Regime (hereinafter referred to as the Montreux Convention), closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles (hereinafter collectively referred to as the Black Sea Strait) to Russian warships, so that the main Russian fleet wandered in the Mediterranean for several months and had to go home. Why is this treaty so powerful that even Russia does not dare to violate it? That's a long story.
■ The large anti-submarine ship "Admiral Tribats" of the Russian Navy, which is part of the Russian Pacific Fleet.
Strategic channels are controversial
The Black Sea Strait between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea (including the Bosphorus, the Dardanelles and the Sea of Marmara in between) has been a strategic choke point since ancient times, when the Persian army crossed the strait to invade Greece, and the capital of the Ottoman Turkish Empire was in Constantinople on the side of the strait.
■ The Bosphorus and Dardanelles are the choke points connecting the Black Sea with the Mediterranean.
In modern times, with the occupation of the northern shore of the Black Sea by Tsarist Russia, the Black Sea Strait has become the only passage for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to exit the Mediterranean Sea and even the Atlantic, and its strategic value has become more prominent. After the end of World War I, the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire both disintegrated, and the Western powers led by Britain and France took advantage of the situation to encroach on the control of the Black Sea Strait, and stipulated in the Treaty of Lausanne signed with Turkey in 1923 that the Black Sea Strait was demilitarized and controlled by the League of Nations, and that both warships and civilian ships could pass freely, and that Turkey could not fortify the strait, let alone have the right to close the strait.
■ In July 1923, Turkey and the Allies signed the Treaty of Lausanne in Lausanne, Switzerland, and thus lost control of the Black Sea Strait.
In the mid-30s of the 20th century, the situation in Europe changed significantly, and Italy, which was dominated by fascist parties, actively expanded in the Balkans and occupied several important islands in the Aegean Sea by force, which made Turkey feel threatened. In March 1936, Nazi Germany entered the Rhine Demilitarized Zone in flagrant violation of the Treaty of Versailles, and the European international order established after World War I began to collapse. In this context, Turkey sent a note to the signatories of the Treaty of Lausanne in April 1936, proposing to reformulate the Straits Convention, and Britain and France also agreed with Turkey's proposition out of the need to protect their own rights and interests. In June 1936, representatives of the signatories other than Italy, as well as the Soviet Union, gathered in Montreux, Switzerland, to hold consultations on the Black Sea Strait.
■Montreux Palace Hotel in Montreux, Switzerland, site of the 1936 Montreux Conference.
All parties play a game to make a new agreement
At the meeting, the Soviet Union, Britain and Turkey put forward their own proposals based on their own positions, and the Soviet Union advocated that the Black Sea littoral countries should have free passage of warships and civilian ships, and that warships of non-Black Sea countries should be restricted, and the straits should be blocked in wartime, and no ships should be allowed to pass. Britain advocated equal passage for all countries, free navigation in time of war, and the approval of a majority of the League of Nations for the blockade of the strait. Turkey, for its part, is seeking to regain sovereignty and jurisdiction over the Straits area. After more than a month of debate and compromise, the participants signed the Montreux Strait Regime Convention on 20 July, establishing new rules for the passage of States through the Black Sea Straits.
■ In June 1936, representatives of various countries met at the Montreux Palace to study the rules of passage through the Black Sea Strait.
The Montreux Convention provided that merchant ships of all nations could freely pass through the strait in both peacetime and wartime; In peacetime, warships of the countries bordering the Black Sea are allowed to pass freely; The passage of warships of non-littoral Black Sea countries is restricted as follows: no more than nine warships may pass through the strait at any one time, with a gross tonnage of 15,000 tons, large warships exceeding 10,000 tons, warships in the Black Sea with a total tonnage of 30,000 tons and a stay of no more than 21 days. In wartime, warships of belligerents are not allowed to pass if Turkey is neutral, and if Turkey is a belligerent, passage permission is determined by Turkey at its discretion. In addition, any foreign warship passing through the strait must notify Turkey in advance, 8 days in advance for Black Sea littoral states and 15 days for non-Black Sea littoral states. The Montreux Convention opened the back door for the Soviet Union, whose peacetime passage of large warships was not limited by tonnage, but escort ships could not exceed 2 destroyers, and Soviet warships whose home port was in the Black Sea could be allowed to return through the strait in wartime.
■ The Montreux Convention stipulates in detail the right of passage of various countries for passage routes in the Black Sea Strait.
It is clear that the greatest beneficiaries of the Montreux Convention were Turkey and the Soviet Union, which regained control of the strait, the Soviet Union was granted peacetime free passage and restricted Western naval access to the Black Sea, and Britain and France achieved the purpose of preventing the Soviet navy from entering the Mediterranean Sea in wartime. It is worth noting that the United States is not a signatory to the Convention, but it generally complies with its provisions. After the end of World War II, the Soviet Union attempted to abolish the Montreux Convention and force Turkey to renew the treaty and place the Black Sea Strait under Soviet-Turkish condominium, which failed due to Western opposition. To this day, the Montreux Convention remains one of the internationally important rules governing maritime passage.
■ In June 2015, the U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Ross sailed out of the Black Sea via the Bosphorus.
There are two sides to whether it is a blessing or a curse
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian government immediately asked Turkey to invoke the Montreux Convention to close the strait to Russian warships to prevent the Russian Navy from mobilizing troops from the Mediterranean Sea into the Black Sea, and in February six Russian warships and one submarine entered the Black Sea through the strait. Turkey did not respond immediately to Ukraine's demands, and although it is a member of NATO, Turkey has a delicate relationship with Russia, and Turkey, which seeks to move between East and West, does not intend to immediately offend Russia.
■ A Russian Navy's Kilo-class submarine sails through the Bosphorus Strait toward the Black Sea, with Istanbul's famous landmark Sophia Cathedral in the background.
Under pressure from all sides, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu announced on February 27 that the Turkish government had recognized Russia's "special military operation" as an act of war and would implement the Montreux Convention in a transparent manner, while closing the Black Sea Strait to the navies of Russia and Ukraine and NATO countries, but also said that it still followed the exemption clause to allow the passage of Russian warships whose home port is in the Black Sea. Between February 27 and 28, four Russian warships applied to pass through the strait, three of which were rejected by Turkey under the terms of the convention because their home ports are not on the Black Sea coast. The two Glory-class cruisers who came from afar were also turned away from the Black Sea gates, waiting for months without success and then returning home.
■ The Minister for Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Mevlüt Cavusoglu, announced the implementation of the Montreux Convention on behalf of the Turkish Government on 27 February.
However, as the so-called "misfortune depends, fortune falls", the refusal of Russian reinforcements is indeed bad news for the Black Sea Fleet, but if you look at the development trend of the war and the overall situation of the Russian Navy, Turkey's compliance with the rules has saved the Russian Navy. The three Glorious-class cruisers are one of the most important legacies inherited by the Russian Navy from the former Soviet Navy, but due to the fragmentation of the former Soviet military-industrial system and perennial economic difficulties, the Russian Navy is unable to upgrade it on a large scale, and the combat effectiveness of the "Moskva" and its two sister ships is far from as powerful as it seems, and it is no longer able to adapt to modern naval warfare with a high degree of information. Since the Ukrainian side can sink the "Moskva" with anti-ship missiles, and can use drones and unmanned boats to harass the Russian military base, then the "Varyag" and "Ustinov" may not be able to avoid the open guns and arrows of the Ukrainian army, and even the port of Sevastopol cannot guarantee 100% safety.
■ On October 29, 2022, the Sevastopol naval base was attacked by Ukrainian drones and unmanned boats, and a column of smoke rose in the port.
Assuming another cruiser or other large warship is sunk or damaged, or trapped in the harbor immobilized, or retreated from the Crimea and escapes, in either case it would be quite embarrassing for the Russian Navy. If a Russian-Ukrainian conflict loses most of the old capital of the surface ships of the Russian Navy, it is really worth the loss! Thus, the Montreux Convention prevented Russian reinforcements and was the worst enemy of the Black Sea Fleet, but on the other hand, the existence of this treaty also saved the last face of the Russian Navy.
■ Although the cruiser "Varyag" failed to enter the Black Sea, it is likely that by a blessing in disguise, it escaped the blows of the Ukrainian army.