Recently, around the Kurdish issue, Turkey and Iran, two regional powers, have launched cross-border strikes. For a time, the Middle East region is tense, Syria, Iraq, and even the United States may personally end up in the future, burying a greater crisis in the security situation in this region.
Turkish warplanes took off to carry out bombing missions
According to RT and other foreign media reports, recently, the Turkish government determined that the terrorist attack in Istanbul was related to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its allies, and launched military operations in the name of revenge. A large number of Turkish warplanes flew across the border and launched air strikes against Kurdish forces in Syria and northern Iraq. In addition to cross-border air strikes, cross-border operations on the ground have also been put on the agenda. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech in parliament that Turkish ground forces will cross the border at the right time and enter Syria to fight further against Kurdish forces. At the same time, Iran is also using drones and missiles to launch cross-border strikes against Kurdish areas in northern Iraq.
The Kurdish problem has a long history, during World War I, Britain and France supported the Kurds to launch a rebellion against the Ottoman Empire, but after the war, the Allies did not assist the Kurds in establishing their own nation-state as agreed. Today, Kurds, the fourth largest ethnic group in the Middle East, with a population of more than 30 million, are still separated by the borders of Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq. But the establishment of an independent nation-state remains the main political demand of Kurdish forces such as the PKK, and Turkey's crackdown is also focused on these forces.
Caption: Syrian towns hit by Turkish air strikes
With the changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the current situation of Kurds in the four countries is obviously different. After the Iraq War, the Kurds in Iraq, with the support of the United States, were granted autonomy granted by the central government. The Kurds in Syria are in the process of the Syrian civil war and the rise of the "Islamic State", as allies of the West, gradually controlling the Kurdish settlements in northern Syria. In the case of the intertwined forces of all parties in northern Syria, the Assad government is temporarily unable to eliminate the Kurdish armed forces, and can only let the status quo be maintained here.
The de facto autonomy of the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds naturally alarmed Iran and Turkey. Especially on the Turkish side, as the country with the largest Kurdish population among the four countries, Turkey is now worried that the northern part of Syria and Iraq will become the rear of its own Kurdish independence forces, and eventually lead to the Kurds in southern Turkey, setting off a large-scale independence movement and undermining the integrity of Turkey. Therefore, the revenge of the Istanbul bombing is only an excuse for Turkey to launch a cross-border attack this time, and its fundamental purpose is to comprehensively attack Kurdish forces and cut off foreign aid to Kurds in the country.
Caption: Syrian targets hit by Turkish air strikes
Secondly, Erdogan's timing of this troop dispatch is excellent, at present, the world's attention is focused on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the World Cup, and the attention to the Kurdish issue is limited. Although the United States is the biggest backer of the Kurds, Washington is now unwilling to let the US-Turkish relations deteriorate again and push Turkey to the side of Russia because of the Kurdish problem.
Therefore, the United States has said that Turkey has the right to carry out military operations, but in the name of possibly affecting counter-terrorism, it has expressed concern about the actions of the Turkish army. As a supporter of the Assad government, Russia has contradictions with Turkey on the Syrian issue, but Putin's government is now focusing on the Ukrainian battlefield and has only expressed concern about Turkey's possible cross-border actions. It can be said that Turkey's troop dispatch this time is excellent, which can not only attack the Kurdish independent forces, but also ask for prices between the United States and Russia.
Caption: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Finally, for Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party, the cross-border strike is also a special operation to win popular support. Next year, Turkey will hold general elections with a change of president and 600 lawmakers, and Erdogan has announced that he will seek re-election. But due to the difficulties of the domestic economy, Erdogan's camp is already at a disadvantage in the polls. Using the Kurdish issue to win the support of the Turkish majority, and stabilize his base is undoubtedly an excellent option for Erdogan.
Compared with Turkey, Iran's new moves on the Kurdish issue inevitably involve a contest with the United States. Against the background of the stagnation of the Iranian nuclear negotiations and the pressing of the United States and the West around the nuclear issue, Iran's external security environment has deteriorated sharply. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the intervention of external forces, large-scale protests and demonstrations broke out in the country.
Iran uses more missiles and drones in air strikes
Therefore, Iran's recent attack on Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, in addition to attacking Kurdish independence forces like Turkey, is more likely to warn the United States not to go too far. The United States has reacted differently to Iran's actions, and the U.S. military has issued a strong warning to Iran. The Iraqi Government is also now considering the deployment of additional security forces to the border areas.
On the whole, although the motives behind it are not exactly the same, the actions of Turkey and Iran have now dealt a heavy blow to the Kurds and forced them into a dead end. If the actions of the two countries continue, even sending ground troops across the border, the governments of Syria and Iraq, and even the United States, behind the Kurds, may also end themselves. At that time, the situation in the Middle East will become more complicated.