Recently, the US Air Force gradually transferred two F-15 fighter squadrons from the US military base in Okinawa, Japan, which attracted great attention from foreign media. The US "Stars and Stripes" newspaper quoted former Marine Corps pilots and senior diplomats as saying that although the US Air Force used four F-22 fighters to "temporarily replenish" the vacancy, it has become a well-known fact that the US military is drawing military forces from bases in Japan.
F-15 fighter squadron of the U.S. military base in Okinawa in Japan
What is surprising is that the US military is replacing the F-15 fighter squadron permanently deployed in Okinawa by rotating F-22 fighter units, and this replacement deployment activity actually means that the US military stationing system in Okinawa is quietly changing, and whether the US military deployment in the first island chain such as Okinawa and Japan's main island chain is "weakening" has aroused strong doubts in the United States.
U.S. continental F-22 fleet
The analysis believes that the US military's active adjustment of the first island chain military deployment has already begun, and the United States believes that China is about to achieve regional military superiority, and the "pessimists" who squeeze the US military out of the Western Pacific region quickly occupy the mainstream. They proposed that the U.S. military strategy should be adjusted to deny Chinese military action in the Asia-Pacific region, but the prerequisite for achieving this goal is that it is not destroyed by China's superior firepower.
US Air Force F-35A
There are indications that while maintaining a military presence in the first island chain, the U.S. military is continuing to strengthen the deployment of military forces at sea and in the air and the construction of new power projection methods, supplemented by flexible overseas rotational garrisons, highlighting the flexible and regular forward presence in the first and second island chains. The United States believes that maintaining a long-term presence in the first island chain can demonstrate to China its national determination to fight, strengthen and consolidate military alliances, dissuade potential adversaries, and improve rapid response capabilities to emergencies. Therefore, the US military will not completely withdraw from the first island chain, but will gradually withdraw the main forces to safer places.
F-22 ground service, inspecting the magazine
Judging from the recent statements of the US military, it is impossible for the US military to completely withdraw from Okinawa in any case. From a strategic point of view, the military importance of the Okinawa base seems self-evident – the United States has several important overseas military installations in the region. For example, the 18th Air Regiment, the largest of the U.S. Overseas Air Regiments stationed at Kadena Airport, the Kadena Ammunition Depot, the U.S. Air Force's largest conventional weapons ammunition depot in the world, and the U.S. Marine Corps Barracks, Courtney Barracks, and Futenma Base, which are important overseas bases for the U.S. Marine Corps. These bases have played a key role in the U.S. military's military operations in the Asia-Pacific region for more than 60 years.
In the U.S. military's view, Okinawa's advantage is its proximity to a series of potentially high-risk conflict zones in the Asia-Pacific region, and its disadvantage is that it is vulnerable to adversaries, while Guam, on the contrary, can complement each other. In other words, the United States is no longer "just counting" on the first island chain in its long-term strategy. According to the simulation and military deployment research of the US military in recent years, in the face of the PLA's new generation of navy, land, air, and space electric strike system, the first island chain, including the Japanese mainland, is likely to be hit by a "storm-like" saturation strike in a short period of time once it enters wartime, and the danger of the US military deploying a large number of new combat forces in the first island chain is increasing sharply.
In order to avoid the risk of being "one pot end", the US military is gradually dispersing its deployment, using the military bases of the first island chain as "bridgeheads" and "connectors" for long-range reinforcements, rather than the core main force for counterattacks. This change means that the US military is emphasizing that in the event of war, the first island chain base, including Okinawa, will mainly play the function of long-range projection "bridgehead", such as intelligence reconnaissance, arrival reconnaissance, logistics supply and air refueling and other auxiliary operations will be carried out by them. Therefore, the US Air Force replaced the "permanent garrison" with a "periodic rotation", in essence, to preserve strength and disperse the risk of annihilation by one-time fire assault.
U.S. White House press secretary
The Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategic framework also states that the United States will primarily deny the PRC sustained air and sea superiority between the first and second island chains and dominate "all areas" beyond the first island chain. In recent times, it has become the mainstream for the US military to withdraw the naval and air forces deployed in the first island chain to the second and third island chains. Recently, the gradual elimination of the main superior naval and air forces from the first line of Japan and South Korea to Guam and Tinian in the second line, and the strengthening of the US military presence in Australia, are all major adjustments in the US military deployment.
Analysts pointed out that the U.S. military base in Okinawa is the most important forward stronghold of the United States in the western Pacific and the pillar of the U.S.-Japan alliance, which plays a key role in maintaining military superiority in the Indo-Pacific region and quickly responding to various emergencies. However, Okinawa occupies less than 1 percent of Japan's land area, but it concentrates 33 of the 85 U.S. military installations stationed in Japan. In the face of the PLA's superior combat forces, the US military's "putting eggs in one basket" obviously does not meet the needs of actual combat. The latest research by the US military believes that military deployment at a greater distance from the imaginary enemy is more in line with the current actual combat environment.