"Ring Time Depth" 2022 Qatar World Cup, see the hot and look at the dark horse

Source: Global Times

In the early morning of the 21st, Beijing time, the 2022 Qatar World Cup officially kicked off, and the round of 32 will compete for the Hercules Cup, which represents the highest glory in world football. From soccer experts to Paul the octopus, predictions about World Cup winners have always been a hot topic on the sidelines: some are based on experience and intuition, while others are based on data analysis. However, the biggest charm of football is "unpredictable", and in the end, "who will fall into the cup" will have to wait until the last game on December 18, the last minute.

favourites: Brazil, England and France

In June, the website "Opta Analyst" speculated after thousands of supercomputer simulations that France was most likely to defend the title, with a high probability of winning the title as high as 17.9%, followed by Brazil and Spain. But now the situation has changed, data website "analysts" said earlier this month that South American duo Brazil and Argentina are more favorable, Brazil has a 16.3% probability of winning the title, and Messi's Argentina has a 13.1% chance of reaching the top.

Consistent with Opta's predictions, many sports experts believe that the era of South American heroes has arrived again. Veteran sports journalist Amy Lawrence said: "Since winning the title in 2002, Brazil has made a series of mistakes in its World Cup journey. But now that the Samba Army has a bunch of great goalscorers, it's time to rise again. ”

Data and tactics expert Liam Talme said: "It is a dilemma between Brazil and Argentina who will win the title, but I support the latter. They are unbeaten in more than 30 games thanks to Lionel Scaloni's flexible tactical schedule, which guarantees the team excellent performances in all positions. Even without considering Messi's absolute talent, his teammates can show talent. At the UEFA Super Cup in June this year, Argentina limited European champions Italy. What's more, their victory over Brazil in last year's Copa America final meant a lot to the team. ”

Britain's Lloyd's takes a different view, as the world's leading provider of enterprise risk solutions, Lloyd's forecasting principle is "simple and crude" – the team with the highest valuation wins. Based on this principle, Lloyd's has accurately predicted the winners of the 2014 and 2018 World Cups. This year, Lloyd's valued England at $3.74 billion, making the "Three Lions" the most valuable team at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, with France in second place with $3.14 billion and Brazil third with $3.02 billion.

The British "Daily Telegraph" said that the betting website "BET 365" gave the odds of winning the championship, England team is the fourth favorite after Brazil, Argentina and France. After a bad UEFA Nations League campaign, Gareth Southgate's side will need to prove themselves in the first round of the group stage.

As the defending champions, the talented French team are also favourites to win the title. However, the US "Sports Illustrated" analysis said that the French team should beware of the "reigning champion curse". In the last five World Cups, four defending champions have been eliminated in the group stage.

Agence France-Presse said on the 20th that the defending champion suffered a heavy blow last weekend, Benzema suffered a quadriceps injury in training without confrontation, and withdrew due to injury when participating in the French team's joint training for the first time. The French newspaper "Team News" said that the old injury has made all of Benzema's good expectations come to naught, and the Ballon d'Or winner can only bid farewell to the World Cup again in this way. The French team officially said that it will not recruit players to replace it, and the number of participants remains at 25.

The French newspaper Le Figaro commented, "Benzema's exit is like a punch, a real and huge disaster. The French players, who could not make it to the World Cup for various reasons, were about to form another team, and the preparation of the French team was a mess, and Deschamps could only falter to defend the title with the remnants of the team."

Dark horses: Wales, Qatar and Denmark

In the excitement and tension of the World Cup, dark horse teams are also hot topics. Sports Illustrated said that usually, dark horses are always labeled as "weak teams". But in fact, if you can get a bloody path from the death group, then this team is also worth looking forward to. From this point of view, Wales, which is in the same group as England, the United States, Iran, has a chance to become a dark horse.

Wales, with Bale, Aaron Ramsay and Brennan Johnson, finished second in the group with 4 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the World Qualifiers, thus qualifying for the play-offs, followed by a victory over Austria and Ukraine. Wales are not very good at passing, but the team is pushing fast and they have a chance to win against the United States and Iran.

The American website "The Ringer" said that because the World Cup is held in the winter, fatigue, injuries and crowded league schedules have challenged many big teams. In this case, the host Qatar has a chance to become a real dark horse. Dutch midfielder De Jong said in an interview with FIFA's official website that while most people think the Netherlands can easily qualify from Group A, Qatar, Ecuador and Senegal should not be underestimated.

In addition, the official website of FIFA believes that with a talented and united team lineup, Denmark is expected to usher in a breakthrough in Qatar. They staged a "Danish fairy tale" at the 1992 European Championships, never being favored until eventually winning the title. Compared to reaching the round of 16 of the World Cup in 1986, Denmark played in 1992 with a more practical style.

Current Denmark coach Ullemann says he will combine the glamour of 1986 with the practicality of 1992 to make the Danish team a success. The current Danish team has a flexible tactical system and no lack of aggression on the field. The team's World Qualifier results were excellent, with 9 wins and 1 loss in 10 games.

If you want to win the Golden Boot, score at least 5 goals

Based on the odds given by "BET 365", England's Kane has the best chance of locking up the Golden Boot. As an important offensive guarantee for the "Three Lions" frontcourt, Kane is in good form before the World Cup. After scoring in the round of 16 of the Premier League, Kane has scored in seven consecutive Premier League home games, and his 12 goals this season is second only to Haaland, the second highest scorer in the Premier League.

Kane was also the top scorer at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, scoring six goals. As a favorite for the 2022 World Cup Golden Boot, Kane has a chance to become the first player in history to win the Golden Boot back-to-back. According to statistics, the 29-year-old striker has scored a total of 51 goals for the "Three Lions", 12 of which were scored during the qualifiers for this World Cup.

In addition, Kylian Mbappe, Messi and Neymar are ranked 2 to 4 in the top scorer odds. According to Bleacher Sports, Mbappe, Neymar and Messi have all contributed great moments on the World Cup stage, but none of them have made it to the top three goalscorers. To win the Golden Boot in Qatar, these good goalscorers must score at least six goals. Of the past 14 Golden Boot winners, 12 have reached that figure.

If scoring six goals is too difficult, five goals are probably the minimum standard for the Golden Boot. In the 2006 and 2010 World Cups, Klose and Müller scored five goals each. The last time the World Cup was in Asia, Brazil's Ronaldo was the top scorer with eight goals in seven games.

Given France's serious injury problems, the likelihood of Mbappe winning the Golden Boot is increasing. In Ligue 1 this season, Kylian Mbappe has scored 13 goals for Paris Saint-Germain, while he has also scored six goals in the Champions League. Arguably the 23-year-old striker is the best of all players in the round of 32 and will be France's main choice in attack. Of course, Mbappe's two team-mates at the club (Neymar and Messi) also have a chance to win the Golden Boot.

Brazilian striker Neymar has scored 12 goals in Ligue 1 this season and five in the Champions League, and Brazil's luxurious midfield configuration can create more chances for him. Messi has never scored more than four goals in a single tournament in his previous World Cup history, but considering that this is his last World Cup, Messi's desire to win will be even more stimulated.

After 20 years, Chinese referees appeared in the World Cup

The Qatar World Cup schedule released by FIFA on the 20th shows that in the first round of Group B on the 22nd, Ma Ning and Cao Yi from China served as the fourth official and assistant referee respectively, which was the debut of Chinese referees in this World Cup.

For Ma Ning, the British "Sun" introduced on the 19th: "Ma Ning was born in 1979, has been a FIFA referee since 2011, and has coached a series of World Cup Asian qualifiers this year. While working as an international referee, Ma Ning is also a teacher. ”

The Sun said that Ma Ning showed three red cards in a single game in the 2015 Chinese Super League "Shanghai Derby", and the incident of being deliberately knocked down by Brazilian player Henrik Dorado this summer put Ma Ning in the spotlight again, and Dorado was banned for 12 months, the harshest penalty in the history of the Chinese Super League.

It is reported that this World Cup has a total of 129 male and female referees from all over the world, including 3 Chinese referees - international referee Ma Ning, international assistant referee Cao Yi and Shi Xiang. According to the custom, FIFA will announce the list of referees 48 hours before the match, and the number of Shi Xiang's matches has not yet been determined. Among the three Chinese referees, Ma Ning has rich experience and qualifications, and he is also the first Chinese referee to enter the World Cup finals as an international referee in 20 years after Lu Jun.

Previously, Ma Ning said in an interview that he has been directing Chinese Super League matches recently, and he is "physically and in good condition". In order to enter the World Cup, the competition between referees is also quite fierce, Ma Ning revealed that FIFA and AFC have strictly examined referee candidates from the beginning of the selection, not only going back to the state of recent years, but also specifically requiring the stability of law enforcement, and the recognition of unstable referees will be reduced, "I personally have always had confidence in myself and have been meticulous in the process of enforcement."

In order to better referee, especially when facing big teams, referees will also study the playing styles of each team in advance under the premise of ensuring fairness and justice, and strive to protect the safety of players and ensure the fluency of the game. Before the official debut, the referee also has to go through physical and technical training, and the law enforcement simulation game to train judgment and adaptability.