On November 19, the commander of the US Navy's Pacific Fleet Sam Smith Smith Admiral Paparo revealed for the first time in a public interview that the US Navy's reconnaissance satellites have confirmed that China's newly developed JULANG-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile is officially in service, and the submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile, which has a longer range than the Julang-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile currently in mass service, allows the Chinese Navy to strike the US mainland directly from its doorstep, and is equipped with a larger number of missile warheads, and their presence has made the United States feel threatened.
Immediately after Google Earth, there was a suspected satellite photo of a new type of submarine pressure-resistant shell on a pier in northeast China, and the diameter of these two pressure-resistant shells of different sizes was estimated to be more than 12 meters, and the small one was about 9 meters, and more importantly, the 12-meter-diameter pressure-resistant shell inside had been welded in advance with the core ballistic missile launcher of the strategic nuclear submarine.
Since the maximum diameter of the 094 strategic nuclear submarine in active service of the Chinese Navy is about 9 meters, foreign media have speculated that this new 12-meter ultra-large diameter pressure-resistant shell segment should be the construction section of China's new generation of 096 strategic nuclear submarines, and it is expected that the new 096 strategic nuclear submarine will be officially unveiled in 2025. Because as early as the end of 2020, the US Bloomberg and the military website "1945" successively reported that China is suspected of completing the design plan of a new generation of strategic nuclear submarines and preparing to start construction.
Judging from the two news on China's new generation of sea-based strategy and platform development that the US media have successively broken, how true are these two news related to China's sea-based strategic development?
1. External factors:
Sea-based nuclear submarines have better strategic concealment capabilities than other strategic platforms because of their advantage of a larger global marine background. Therefore, after the P5 have successively equipped their latest strategic nuclear submarines in batches, including India, they have also begun to seek to develop their own strategic nuclear submarines to expand the construction of sea-based strategic nuclear platforms.
Especially after a number of Russia's new generation of strategic nuclear submarines "North Wind God" class entered service and began to have comprehensive combat readiness duty capability, the United States has also officially started construction of its new generation of Columbia-class strategic nuclear submarines. At the same time, France's Triumph-class was built late, the overall performance is advanced enough, and the United Kingdom has also adopted the mature nuclear reactor technology of the Columbia-class in the United States, submarine-launched ballistic missile launchers, and Trident IID5 submarine-launched intercontinental missiles in advance to build its own new generation of dreadnought-class strategic nuclear submarines, and the first two dreadnought-class strategic nuclear submarines are expected to be officially combat-ready in 2030.
So in the entire five permanent members of the United Nations, only China, which is lagging behind the United States, Russia, Britain and France in its own technology, has not yet announced its own next generation of strategic nuclear submarine development plan, so from the perspective of external factors, China has also reached a tense moment to develop a new generation of strategic nuclear submarines.
2. Domestic demand:
Indeed, the number of 094/094A strategic nuclear submarines in active service in the Chinese Navy is quite large, and each can carry 12 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and according to the words of the US Navy's Pacific Commander, China has replaced a number of 094/094A strategic nuclear submarines with a range of more than 10,000 kilometers with JL-3 submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles.
However, those who are familiar with China's 092 and 094 strategic nuclear submarines know that limited by the shortcomings and deficiencies of the mainland's large-diameter pressure-resistant shell construction technology, the 092 and 094/094A strategic nuclear submarines that have been retired and currently in service, in order to carry submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a longer range, have a particularly prominent "turtle back" on the back of the hull, and this huge turtle back not only increases navigation resistance, but also increases navigation noise. Because this turtle back is a non-pressure-resistant shell, and the ballast tank tank is designed inside, many inlet and drainage holes must be arranged on the surface of the turtle back, which makes the strategic nuclear submarine unable to reduce its own noise when submerged underwater, and will expose its own whereabouts.
In particular, the earlier technology shows that the 094 in mass service still uses the traditional large side-tilt propeller design, although it has the advantages of mature and reliable technology, but compared with the pump-jet thrusters that have been fully popularized in the United States and Russia, there is not only a large gap in propulsion efficiency, but also a large gap in noise performance, so these factors make the mainland after having the Great Wave-3, must build a new, overall more advanced 096 to meet the current and future strategic needs of the continental sea.
Many people may speculate, why not directly upgrade the existing 094 Julang-3, but build a new 096?
In fact, the main reason for the mainland to build a new generation of 096 strategic nuclear submarines, in addition to the 094 strategic nuclear submarines in service mentioned earlier, there is already a big gap compared with the new generation of strategic nuclear submarines of the United States, Russia, Britain and France, forcing China to start developing a new generation of strategic nuclear submarines with more advanced overall performance. Another reason may be that with the longer range of the Julang-3 submarine-launched ICBM after the batch equipment is put into service, the existing 094 can either not directly carry the finalized Julang-3 missile, or can only carry the reduced Julang-3 missile, so these reasons may be the core reason why China started building a new generation of 096.
As for why the 094 strategic nuclear submarine in service is likely to be unable to carry the longer-range Julang-3, the main reason may be directly related to the development of submarine-launched ballistic missiles on the mainland. As we all know, the mainland's submarine-launched ballistic missiles have always been closely related to the land-based Dongfeng series ballistic missiles. Like the earliest Great Wave-1 after its success, it landed to derive the DF-21 ballistic missile,
In fact, after testing the Julang-1 in the early 80s of last century, the Navy was not satisfied with its range of only more than 2,000 kilometers, so it intends to develop a new generation of submarine-launched ballistic missiles from scratch with the help of advanced technology, with a longer range and a larger number of warheads.
However, because submarine-launched ballistic missiles not only have to solve the problem of different resistance changes in the air flight after the missile comes out of the water, but also because the internal space of strategic nuclear submarines carrying submarine-launched ballistic missiles is limited, the miniaturization size of submarine-launched ballistic missiles is more required. However, in the early days, Continental was relatively backward in terms of solid rocket motor long-range and miniaturization.
Therefore, in the 80s of last century, the development project of Julang-2 was suspended, and the land-based version of the Dongfeng-31 developed by the same platform began to take the lead in tackling key problems, and after officially completing the first launch test in 1999 and achieving complete success, the hope of the Julang-2 project began to restart, and finally the JL-2 after several improvements and upgrades was officially finalized in 2011 and began mass production and replacement. But the range has shrunk slightly compared with the DF-31, which has exceeded 8,000 kilometers, only about 7,300 kilometers, after all, the pressure-resistant shell of the 094 strategic nuclear submarine in service is still too small, and the additional turtle back can not bulge too high, so the Julang-2 facilities have been shortened, but fortunately, the range is enough to reach the scope of intercontinental operations, and the biggest advantage of the Julang-2 over the Julang-1 is that under the premise of its greatly increased range, it can carry a more capable split-missile nuclear warhead.
The latest Julang-3 is rumored to have a maximum range of more than 12,000 kilometers, and the entire projectile size is much longer, conservative estimates, the length of the JULANG-2 projectile loaded in service 094 is estimated to be about 14 meters, that the range increases by at least 5,000 kilometers of the JL-3, boldly estimated that the length of the projectile body is also about 15 meters, so even if the raised turtle back of the active 094 can increase the length of the missile launcher, the length of the missile launcher is estimated to be less than the true length of the JL-3, so there is a reason why the 094 cannot be carried.
Of course, at this stage, the Julang-2 loaded with 094 has met the needs of our military at this stage and in the short term in terms of range, number of nuclear warheads, strike accuracy, etc., so it is estimated that it will not be reequipped or retired. However, for 094, if it really intends to replace it with a more advanced overall performance of the Julang-3 missile in the future, it is estimated that it will have to reduce the length of the solid rocket motor to shorten the length of the entire projectile, which will also reduce its maximum range and multi-warhead loading capacity. And it is foreseeable that with the simultaneous appearance of the Great Wave-3 and 096, the underwater nuclear power of the Chinese Navy will be further enhanced, in line with the other four countries of the P5, and the Chinese Navy will be as difficult to confront as the Chinese Army.