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Jin Canrong: The system is very large, there are many weaknesses, what is the top priority of China's industrial development?

author:Professor Jin Canrong

The report of the 20th National Congress summarizes the achievements made in the past five years, especially in the past 10 years in the new era, and makes plans for the future. This goal is to realize the great rejuvenation of our Chinese nation and create a new form of human civilization through Chinese-style modernization, which is a very high goal and not easy.

After years of hard work, our modernization should be said to be fruitful. We can say that China has basically industrialized. I personally think that our industrialization should have reached the middle and late stages, not yet to the highest level, to the middle and late stages. It has some numbers to prove:

One is that our current per capita GDP last year was $12,500, ranking about 66th in the world, in the middle and upper income. There are 65 people in front of us, a total of 1.2 billion people, all of whom together are not as large as us.

This year 2022 is probably the same as the total manufacturing output value of our country and G7, almost twice the appearance of the United States, which is very bullish, the United States used to have 5 opponents, the United States was the first GDP in 1894, and then he experienced 5 opponents divided into Britain, Germany, the Soviet Union, Japan, the European Union, but these 5 opponents have a flaw, their manufacturing industry has not reached the same level as the United States, and there is a manufacturing base called power generation, they have not exceeded the United States. Now China manufactures twice as much as the U.S. and generates twice as much electricity, so it's an opponent the U.S. has never met. Therefore, the United States now regards us as the first opponent, and from his point of view, it is an inevitable choice.

Jin Canrong: The system is very large, there are many weaknesses, what is the top priority of China's industrial development?

On October 12, the White House officially released the Biden administration's version of the US National Security Strategy report, which identified China as the "most important geopolitical challenge."

The United States is probably equivalent to a doctoral degree at the industrial level, and our country is probably equivalent to a bachelor's degree, which I think may be more realistic, but it is different from 1949. In 1949, the United States may have graduated with a master's degree, we have become illiterate, so he casually fooled you to say an English word you are dumbfounded, now it is different, now he is a higher level than us, he has a doctorate with our undergraduate but the gap is not like in 1949, the difference between master's and illiterate. This is not a qualitative difference, it is a quantitative difference, plus we have many people and large numbers, so we actually have a certain negotiating confidence now.

At present, everyone has noticed that the United States is stuck in us, and we now find that we have quite a lot of shortcomings, chips, especially high-end chips, industrial design software is more dependent on the United States, industrial testing equipment, high-end industrial materials, high-end machine tools, etc., are all short boards. We still have a lot of weaknesses, and I think this new industrial system is first of all to solve these stuck necks.

Promising industries in the future must be obtained, and then industrial safety must be ensured. We must now refocus agriculture again. Agriculture is called the primary industry, the proportion of agriculture in the modern economy is getting smaller and smaller, the experience of the West is like this, at the beginning everyone has a large proportion of agriculture, and then manufacturing up to squeeze agriculture, and then the service industry, all such a law. But in fact, agriculture still relies on it, and without agriculture, if you can't eat, the economy will collapse.

I noticed that the supreme leaders paid special attention to agriculture, because we have a large agricultural output, ranking first and the United States second. Now agricultural mechanization is very good, soon agricultural mechanization, agricultural science development is now basically running to the middle and high end, not the highest end of the middle and high end. But we do have weaknesses, especially in previous years, when we couldn't farm seeds, which are now basically controlled by the West.

Jin Canrong: The system is very large, there are many weaknesses, what is the top priority of China's industrial development?

So in recent years, the central government has attached great importance to agricultural security, and now we have solved the seeds of staple grains ourselves, but many people do not know that vegetables are not good, so now everyone likes to eat small tomatoes, crystal tomatoes, which are all coming in from the outside, mainly Israel, Israel only needs to transport two planes of seeds a year, one seed for a dollar, can not do without it, too profitable.

In addition, in a sense, with the development of the country's economy, it will definitely encounter some new problems, such as the cost of labor must rise, which is no way, and it is reasonable, and it cannot develop economically, and there are many people who take low wages, which is unreasonable. With the development of land for economy, labor costs, land costs, and other natural factor costs rise, which is inevitable. Then under this pressure, some low-end industries can be expected.

Now in fact, in fact, some industries have gone to Southeast Asia to South Asia, the more eye-catching ones have received us more transfer is India and Vietnam, in fact, other Southeast Asian countries have also received, I see Myanmar, Laos, including Thailand, Cambodia have received a lot, and then we often ignore a South Asian country, Bangladesh is now very powerful, received a lot, and the performance is particularly good, many friends may not know, Bangladesh like per capita GDP has exceeded India, he will get rich in a muffled voice, he does not brag, India likes to brag, and everything is known all over the world.

So this is happening. But you insist that you won't let it go, and you can't confront the market, so what to do? One is the traditional industry, we have to master the high-end, I see that the entire textile system of the textile industry is doing very well, part of the clothing industry has gone to Vietnam, but we actually now master such as clothing machinery and equipment, dyeing cloth to make clothing It has some equipment now in China. In addition, the fabric, you must always have good fabrics to make clothes, I see that our textile system is actually working hard, sewing buttons or something, now we are expensive, you let the Vietnamese, Laos, Cambodians, Burmese to do it, you give him fabrics. Design and machines, in fact, you can still keep your output value.

So this is the first, low-end, we in the low-end industry itself we high-end can still control the key market, and another is to open up new markets, open up new markets is now okay, so everyone noticed that Elon Musk said last month, said that at least two industries, China won, a new energy vehicle, on electric vehicles, we account for half of the world, so this year our car exports are particularly fierce, now car exports have surpassed Germany, the second is second only to Japan. He said that the current development trend may surpass Japan next year, and we should be this not called overtaking on a corner, but also overtaking in a change of lane.

Jin Canrong: The system is very large, there are many weaknesses, what is the top priority of China's industrial development?

There is also a new energy, wind, light, water on this piece we won, now about solar energy we account for 90% of the world, wind energy can account for more than 80%, water energy is more than half, nuclear energy more than half, other biological intelligence, geothermal tidal energy, China is now leading.

So that's how we're going to deal with it now. With our economic development, there must be some low-end to go out, there is no way to do it? You take the middle and low end inside the high end. This market share is still preserved. In addition, it is to develop new industries, that kind of new trillion-level industry, then China can still do this, the new electric is electric vehicles and new energy is now ahead.

Although China's economy is very difficult now, and small and medium-sized enterprises, especially traditional small and medium-sized enterprises, are very difficult, this we must admit, but China's economy is still very competitive in global comparison.

Many things in the 20th Party Congress are summaries of the achievements and experience of the economy in the past 10 years. Most of the report itself should be said to be continuation, with characteristics, probably a few. Cultural self-confidence, ecological security and overall national security, then the future must be like this in our country, there are still many achievements of us, but there are also many difficulties, we must be acknowledged.

There are several difficulties in the future, one is not a demographic problem. Population aging has arrived early, of course, the next 5 years are not a big problem, and the next 5 years may become more and more serious, population aging, because this is now coming early population aging, which needs attention.

In addition, we should pay attention to the fact that the connotation of the regional imbalance in our development has changed; we used to talk about the gap between the east and the west, but now the new problem is that the gap between the north and the south is becoming more and more intense.

Jin Canrong: The system is very large, there are many weaknesses, what is the top priority of China's industrial development?

In addition, there are intergenerational contradictions, and now it should be said that the reform has succeeded, developed, and then born in many places where prices have risen and the cost of living has risen. Like the 50s, 40s, 50s, 60s, and 60s have paid in the reform, but there are also gains, this age group has houses in big cities, and the 70s and 80s also get a little cheaper, and now the 90s and 00s can't do it, and they can't afford to buy a house in the north.

This is a very specific question. Of course, there are still some problems in our current industrial development, such as some bottlenecks that have not been solved, and then in a sense, it has attracted from reality to virtuality, and finance has run away a lot of profits from industry, you see we actually have many problems internally.

Of course, the external problems are also very big, I think the future is that the West, led by the United States, will definitely press China, and I think the next 10 years is a measure.

In addition, some neighboring countries do not like China's rise either. They have a Yuliang complex for China, saying that since Yu Sheng He Shengliang, it is good to have some neighboring countries without China. Taking India as an example, I tell everyone that India is definitely No.1 if there is no China Third World, it is a model.

Now that the 20th National Congress has also begun, we have a new team, and we have a good plan, we must be mentally prepared, there are still many internal and external difficulties, and it is still very challenging for our new team. Especially in the next 5 years, it is especially important, and then according to the two steps, 2035, 2049 each step is done well, and move forward steadily.

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