After more than a month of intermittent long-range missile and "motorcycle" strikes, the Russian army launched another large-scale strike against Ukraine's energy infrastructure on November 15. According to the Ukrainian side, the scale of the blow was even greater than the one on October 10.
Under the blows of hundreds of missiles/"small motorcycles", Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been hit hard.
Of course, according to the results of the air defense announced by the Ukrainian army, most of the Russian missiles were "intercepted". As for what "interception" is used, this is a matter of opinion, high emotional intelligence and low emotional intelligence are said.
However, it is very interesting that the biggest public opinion consequence caused by this wave of blows is not how badly Ukraine was bombed or how prominent the achievements of the Ukrainian air defense forces are, but that Ukraine's western neighbor, Poland, was bombed.
On November 15, two "missiles" hit a farm in the village of Przewoduw, near the Polish-Ukrainian border in southeastern Lublin Voivodeship, Poland, killing two local people.
Because the explosion coincided with the Russian army's launch of a long-range strike, it is believed on Polish and Western networks that Russian missiles were responsible.
However, since Poland is a NATO country, whether the missile attack is intentional or unintentional, it objectively causes the reality of the strike and the casualties, which may trigger the NATO response mechanism. Therefore, although the incident is small, it is very significant.
If it is really determined that Russian missiles are responsible, then NATO will have to respond, but NATO's current tone of the war between Russia and Ukraine is that light and dark support can be put on the table, but it cannot really end itself.
Therefore, after this incident, Poland and NATO reacted more cautiously.
For example, Polish President Duda said that the investigation is still ongoing, and the missile is likely to be Russian-made, but there is no "clear evidence" that the missile launched by which side exploded in Poland and killed two people.
At the same time, a spokesman for the US State Department also said that it could not confirm that the Russian missile fell into Polish territory and was working with the Polish government to gather more information.
US President Joe Biden called the Polish counterpart, reiterating the strong commitment of the United States to NATO and saying that the United States will fully support and assist Poland in investigating the matter.
At present, various meetings within the United States and NATO are in full swing, and the combat readiness level of the Polish army is also being improved.
But in general, Poland and NATO have revealed that the missile is Russian-made, but a detailed investigation is needed to determine who did it.
Of course, the key to such a response is not to determine what the incident itself is, but to allow time for NATO's subsequent response to negotiate a more ideal response.
To put it simply, Poland and NATO actually know where the missile came from, but it is necessary to discuss in detail to determine who fired it and how they should respond.
Seeing this, everyone may think, since it is announced that it is a Russian-made missile for it, and it coincides with the Russian army launching a full-territory strike on Ukraine, is there still a need for investigation?
There are more problems involved, and they are not as simple as they seem.
First of all, Russian-made missiles, it is not necessarily really a weapon used by the Russian army, because the Soviet weapons equipped by the Ukrainian army are actually also called Russian-made weapons internationally.
Judging by the images coming out of the explosion site in Poland now, it is most likely the remains of the S300 anti-aircraft missile. This missile is equipped with both the Russian army and the Ukrainian army, of course, in addition to being used in normal air defense operations, it is not impossible to use for ground strikes.
It's just that the location of this explosion is far from the launch position of the Russian army, so there is a view that this may be collateral damage caused by the Ukrainian army's S300 missile when intercepting the incoming target.
In fact, because the missiles in the hands of the Ukrainian army are too old, there have indeed been many real cases of hitting residential buildings without intercepting targets in this Russian-Ukrainian war.
In addition, there are military experts on the Russian side who suspect it, and it is not ruled out that the Poles will direct their own actions and play bitter meat to escalate the situation. Of course, there is also a statement that the Ukrainian side deliberately tried to pull NATO into the water.
The official Russian statement is that the incident has nothing to do with Russia, the wreckage at the scene has nothing to do with Russian firepower, and Polish media and officials claim that the Russian missile hit the Przevoduv area as a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation.
The Ukrainian response to this is that Russia is promoting conspiracy theories, believing that the fall of Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles into Poland is not the truth, and no one should believe Russia's propaganda or amplify its information.
At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that after talking to the Polish president on the phone, he "expressed condolences to the Polish citizens killed in the Russian missile attack", meaning that Russian missiles caused the incident.
So this matter seems simple, but it is "fair and reasonable, mother-in-law says mother-in-law is reasonable", because of the heavy stakes, so in addition to the direct war of words between Russia and Ukraine, Poland and NATO reacted cautiously.
In fact, this incident may indeed be caused by the Ukrainian S300 air defense missile response when the Russian missile hit the target in Lviv in western Ukraine.
There really was nothing worth bombing around the village where the explosion took place
Because the Russian army lacks long-range missiles, everyone knows that it is really not rich enough to use 2 long-range missiles to bomb Polish farms across the border.
Or in other words, even if the Russian army deliberately wants to teach Poland a lesson, then the missiles should not be wasted on bombing farm targets. At present, the most important supply line of the Ukrainian army is the line from Rzeszow in Poland to Lviv in Ukraine, and the "cross-border accidental bombing" to bomb Rzeszow's arms hoarding point, isn't that more fragrant? Anyway, it's all bombing, it's good to simply blow up valuable targets, save bombing civilian targets, and take the initiative to find out in international public opinion.
Of course, if you want to say that the missile performance does not deviate from the target, will it be possible?
The red frame is the site of the explosion, and the north and south green boxes are the main communication routes from Poland to Ukraine
It depends on the location of the explosion, the Polish village of Przevoduv is less than 8 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, and there are no important communication lines nearby. It is about 80 kilometers away from the main communication line on the north side and more than 70 kilometers away from the main communication line on the south side, and the long-range missiles that the Russian army can hit will not be worse than this extent.
To say that it is specifically to use long-range missiles to bomb farms in Poland and stimulate NATO's further response is also unjustifiable in terms of strategic intentions.
Indeed, Poland is now the second largest country in military aid to Ukraine, and even the proportion of Polish mercenaries in the Ukrainian army is the highest, but if you really teach a lesson, you are not going to bomb farms. As mentioned earlier, such a large area of Rzeszow arms hoarding points, if you really want to "bomb" by mistake, there are many targets.
On the contrary, from the perspective of Ukraine's strategic needs, it is not difficult to understand that NATO will be stimulated to further respond and even directly end. Of course, we don't think Ukraine will do that, this matter may indeed be caused by the flying of anti-aircraft missiles, there are too many such examples before. It's just that this time it blew up the line, and the matter was bigger.
We say this, of course, some netizens will definitely not recognize, a lot of hats may fly again. However, please also note that although the above analysis is only a matter of fact (of course, it is not necessarily accurate), but in fact it is useless for half a dime, because the key to this incident is not actually who did it.
If NATO really wants to end, then no matter whose missiles Russia and Ukraine did it, or even say that Russia and Ukraine really did not do this, there will always be "explosions".
If NATO's bottom line is not to end, then even if Russian missiles are blown up, NATO can still find a statement that it will not send troops.
Therefore, who bombed it, we should analyze and analyze, which is for netizens who are willing to watch and analyze. Of course, according to the current relationship between NATO and Ukraine, even if it may really be done by Ukraine, I am afraid that NATO will not directly admit it, and the pot will definitely be thrown at Russia.
This is also the current difficulty between Poland and NATO, but its difficult place is precisely what we want to focus on, whether NATO is a real tiger or a paper tiger, depending on the next "findings" and what its substantive reaction is.
From this point of view, whether it is the high voice of the Russian missile or the high voice of the Ukrainian missile, it is not good news for NATO, and it is probably what NATO expects to suppress the tone, which is why NATO is currently cautious and tries to leave buffer time and space.