"Vigilance storm" vs high-frequency guidance, how does the situation on the Korean Peninsula evolve?

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not yet cooled, and tensions on the Korean Peninsula have escalated abruptly.

According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea's Joint Staff Headquarters reported that North Korea launched six ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, on November 3. The day before, North Korea fired about 25 missiles in four rounds, and some of them crossed the "northern line", the first time since the division of South Korea and North Korea.

A number of countermeasures from South Korea and the United States have responded. On November 2, the ROK military fired three air-to-surface missiles north of the "Northern Line," and the ROK and US air forces decided to extend the "vigilance storm" of large-scale joint air exercises, which were scheduled to end on November 4. Moreover, the ROK and US defense ministers said on the 3rd that the two countries will deploy US strategic weapons on the Korean Peninsula at an appropriate time after consultation when necessary to deal with the nuclear threat from the DPRK, and will continue to take new measures to strengthen deterrence against the DPRK.

On November 3, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and resolving issues through dialogue and consultation are in the common interests of the region, commenting on the ROK-US decision to extend the joint military exercise. It is hoped that all parties concerned will squarely face the crux of the Korean Peninsula issue, meet each other halfway, and create conditions for resuming meaningful dialogue.

"While increased U.S.-South Korean military exercises can ensure readiness, propaganda and chest clapping around the exercises can be counterproductive." A former senior U.S. defense official told Reuters that the United States and South Korea wanted to send a message to North Korea — "we are genuine," but that did not help the current situation.

According to KCNA news agency, Park Chong-tian, secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, issued a statement on November 3, saying that the decision of the United States and South Korea to extend the "Vigilance Storm" joint air exercise was a very dangerous and wrong choice. The provocative military actions of the United States and South Korea have brought the current situation "to an uncontrollable situation."

Fighting the "Vigilance Storm"

Since 2015, South Korea and the United States have held a large-scale joint air exercise "Vigilant ACE" every December, especially in 2017, when the two militaries dispatched more than 230 aircraft to participate in the exercise, which was a record scale at the time. But since 2018, when inter-Korean and DPRK-U.S. dialogue began, the Moon Jae-in administration terminated the "Alert Ace" exercise and replaced it with the smaller "Integrated Combat Readiness Posture Exercise."

With the arrival of the Yoon Seok-yue administration this year, the large-scale air exercise in the United States and South Korea was launched again and renamed "Vigilant Storm". Before the start of the military exercise, Yonhap News Agency said that South Korea and the United States will dispatch more than 240 military aircraft, and the number of sorties will reach more than 1,600, exceeding the scale of 2017.

Compared with previous joint air exercises, the weapons and equipment sent by the US military have also been upgraded. On November 1, four F-35B fighters flew to South Korea from the U.S. base in Iwakuni, Japan, and were able to take off and land on the ground, aircraft carriers, and amphibious assault ships. The "Key West" "Los Angeles" class nuclear-powered rapid attack submarine also sailed into the port of Busan on 31 October; the submarine can operate without supplies for 90 days, has unlimited endurance, and can perform various military tasks such as anti-submarine, anti-ship, surveillance, reconnaissance, and attack.

The day after the ROK-US exercise was launched, Park Chung-cheon, secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, issued a statement, saying that the "vigilance storm" was an aggressive and provocative military exercise against the DPRK, and if the United States and South Korea attempted to use force against the DPRK, they would "pay the most terrible price in history." The next day, North Korea began intensive missile tests.

Liu Ming, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told The Paper that North Korea's intensive missile launch is first of all a response to the "vigilance storm", because the exercise is strong and high-level, such as the dispatch of F-35B fighters, which is not only a stealth fighter, but also a strategic weapon that can carry nuclear bombs. Moreover, the United States cooperated with South Korea in extending its nuclear deterrence by sending nuclear submarines. "After assessment, North Korea may believe that according to its original missile countermeasures, the deterrent strength, scale, and level cannot reflect its tough determination, and it is necessary to use hybrid test strikes to send a message to South Korea that North Korea can respond to any strike, and if South Korea uses force, North Korea also has the ability to preempt it." Liu Ming pointed out.

It is worth noting that North Korea and South Korea crossed the "northern line" by firing missiles at each other on November 2, causing concern that "guns go wrong". Yoon Seok-yue said on the same day that this was the first time that a DPRK missile had "crossed the border" after the division of the north and south of the Korean Peninsula. For the ROK army, it was also the first time to shoot missiles north of the "northern line".

This line in the western part of the Korean Peninsula, drawn by the then United Nations forces in 1953, is considered the demarcation line between the two Koreas, but it has never been recognized by the North Korean side, so it has become one of the sensitive areas of long-term conflict between the two Koreas. Liu Ming believes that the North Korean missile "crossed the border" but landed on the high sea, which means that although the North Korean side has exceeded the previous warning, it is actually looking for some "gray areas". The same is true of the South Korean military missile guidance and is controlled by the American side. Therefore, there is no possibility of "high-pressure brinkmanism" turning into skirmishes. However, problems can also arise if the control is not good.

At present, the DPRK and the ROK are both trying to gain the dominant power over the situation on the Korean Peninsula, while the United States is "standing" for the ROK, and a situation of intensified confrontation has emerged. Li Feng, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told The Paper that the current situation on the peninsula will not be completely out of control, because the dialogue channels of relevant countries are still there. Moreover, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has its own development characteristics, in history, as the Korean Peninsula crisis continues to escalate, when large-scale conflicts are on the verge of large-scale conflict, the two Koreas often actively seek opportunities to cool down the tense situation, and neighboring countries will also intervene, thus forming a potential brake mechanism.

When Yoon Seok-yue came to power, the atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula changed

The sudden heating up of the situation on the Korean Peninsula was not only triggered by the "vigilance storm", but traced back to the attitude and policy of the Yoon Seok-yue government towards the DPRK.

Yoon's appointment has put conservatives back at the center of South Korean foreign policy, and his foreign policy team has emphasized being tough on North Korea and clearly moving down a different path from the progressive Moon Jae-in administration. In May, Yoon said after talks with U.S. President Joe Biden that the two countries would step up joint military exercises and coordinate U.S. strategic military deployments in the region to counter the North Korean threat. In July, he announced the establishment of a new Strategic Command to command and control the "South Korean-type three-axis system" (which includes a "kill chain system" to strike North Korean missile launchers, a "South Korean missile defense system" to intercept incoming missiles, and a "large-scale retaliatory combat plan" to strike North Korean commands). ）

After this series of statements, the DPRK responded strongly. According to KCNA reported, North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un delivered a speech on July 27 this year at the commemoration of the 69th anniversary of the "Victory Day" (the day the signing of the "Armistice Agreement" in the Korean War), strongly condemning the South Korean government's military policy of "preempting the DPRK" and "the dangerous attempts of the ROK side will be immediately and forcefully punished."

On 8 September, the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK promulgated a decree on the policy of nuclear force, which provides for the mission, composition, command and control of nuclear force. The decree emphasizes that the basic principle of North Korea's nuclear force policy is "the use of nuclear weapons as a last resort."

Ri Feng believes that after the Yoon Seok-yue government took office, it adopted a tough stance toward the DPRK, and the North-South relations on the Korean Peninsula have actually changed since then. North Korea will naturally react more forcefully, strengthening its own national defense while vigorously attacking the United States and South Korea, which in turn is seen by South Korea as the North Korea's increased sense of provocation, so the threat spirals.

From the end of September to the beginning of October this year, as the US-ROK and US-Japan-ROK military exercises were successively held in the eastern waters of the Korean Peninsula, the military training of the tactical nuclear weapons use unit of the Korean People's Army carried out seven launch training during this period, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula attracted more attention from the outside world.

The US, Japan, and ROK warships conducted a joint anti-submarine military exercise at the end of September, marking the second time in more than five years that the three sides have held a joint military exercise with anti-submarine as the theme. South Korean media said that unlike the military exercises held during the Moon Jae-in administration and Park Geun-hye's administration, the U.S., Japanese and South Korean naval vessels used to only detect and track missile targets and share intelligence in the waters near their respective countries, but this time they are gathered.

While holding joint military exercises with the United States, South Korea is emphasizing the "bold concept" of its policy toward North Korea. Yoon said that as long as North Korea is willing to denuclearize, it will ensure "sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and the world", while South Korea will be willing to provide a series of assistance such as food production, energy infrastructure, port modernization, medical facilities and financial investment.

South Korea's "bold idea" was denounced by the DPRK. Kim Yo-jung, vice minister of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, delivered a speech on August 19, saying that South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue's "bold idea" of "denuclearization in exchange for investment" was "daydreaming," according to KCNA News Agency.

Scott Schneider, head of US-DPRK policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, pointed out in an article in the US media that Yoon Seok-yue's proposal uses the idea of "denuclearization for investment" that North Korea has clearly rejected many times, and only adds a new stroke to "a long list of failed initiatives."

The fact is that the Yoon Seok-yue administration's policy goals toward North Korea are not consistent with its security and diplomatic lines, and it will not be easy for inter-Korean relations to get back on track as South Korea deepens its security alliance with the United States.

U.S. "Supporting the Show"

On November 3, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin and South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup held the 54th U.S.-South Korea Security Consultative Meeting in Washington, D.C., after which the two issued a joint statement condemning North Korea's escalation of missile tests and other activities. Austin reiterated that the U.S. commitment to South Korea's security remains "rock-solid" and will use a full range of defense capabilities, including "nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities."

The options available to the United States and its allies are limited in confronting North Korea, and there is a question mark over whether punishment and threats alone can ease the situation. The US government announced a new course of policy toward the DPRK in May last year, and until now, there has been no substantive progress in the denuclearization negotiations. The coronavirus pandemic has hit the global economy and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and analysts generally believe that the North Korean nuclear issue has been relegated to the back burner of the Biden administration's diplomatic priorities.

Liu Ming analyzed that the Biden administration now has no intention of confronting North Korea, but is only cooperating with the South Korean side, and it is the Yoon Seok-yue government that is forcing the United States to increase pressure on North Korea.

The U.S. government's past diplomatic agreements with North Korea have mostly failed, and former U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to deal directly with North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, have ultimately failed. Given past failed attempts, many experts believe the only option left is to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power and then seek to improve relations.

According to CNN, Bonnie Jenkins, the State Department's undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, said at an October 27 meeting at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that "disarmament can also be an option if North Korea is willing to talk." This statement caused a sensation because it meant a disguised recognition of North Korea's status as a nuclear power.

At an October 28 State Department press conference, when asked about Jenkins' remarks about North Korea, U.S. State Department spokesman Price said that U.S. policy has not changed, it remains "the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," and it is committed to continuing to engage with North Korea through diplomatic means.

At the same time, there are some different voices on the Korean side. South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup said on October 26 that a change in strategy is needed to counter the threat of North Korea's nuclear weapons, Yonhap News Agency reported. South Korea has previously been committed to deterring North Korea from conducting nuclear tests or strengthening its nuclear weapons capabilities, and will focus on deterring North Korea's use of nuclear weapons in the future.

According to Reuters, some analysts believe that Lee's remarks reflect a sign that the United States and South Korea are facing the reality that North Korea is a nuclear state. But South Korean Foreign Ministry officials later clarified that Mr. Lee had no idea of acknowledging that North Korea was a nuclear state, but stressed the urgent need to prevent North Korea from using nuclear weapons.

Regarding the possibility of the US policy turning towards the DPRK, Li Feng said that Biden's policy towards the DPRK is an extremely rigid policy and will not undergo major changes. If the United States and the DPRK conduct disarmament negotiations, it is equivalent to recognizing the DPRK's status as a nuclear power in disguise, which will not only mean that the US nuclear policy on the Korean Peninsula has failed, but will also lose the trust of South Korea and Japan and other allies in the United States, greatly shaking the US East Asia alliance system, and the Biden administration will definitely not rashly touch it.

It is worth noting that the DPRK has not yet responded to the warnings issued by the United States, Japan and South Korea on the relevant nuclear movements of the DPRK in recent days. Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said in response to the US-Japan-ROK-related warnings that he hoped that the parties concerned would squarely face the root cause and context of the long-standing stalemate on the Korean Peninsula and do something conducive to enhancing mutual trust and resolving the concerns of all parties in a balanced manner.

In the past, South Korea once played the role of mediator between the United States and South Korea, but now the United States and South Korea are closer and tense with North Korea, the key is which of the two sides to "step down" to the other first, or who can mediate.