Last night, during the US stock market, the results of the leadership of the British ruling Conservative Party were announced. As the leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt, announced at the last minute that she would withdraw from the race and express her support for Sunak, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, as the only candidate, was automatically elected as the new leader of the British Conservative Party, and he will replace Elizabeth Truss, who resigned after only 45 days in office, as the British Prime Minister. It will also be the first Asian prime minister in British history.
Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, a group of Conservative MPs in the lower house of the British parliament, subsequently announced the results. According to previous media statistics, Sunak has the support of 188 MPs, more than half of the support (the total number of seats in the Conservative Party in the House of Commons is 357). Earlier, on the evening of the 23rd local time, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his withdrawal from the election.
Sunak, born in Southampton, UK, in 1980, became a Conservative MP in 2015 and Chancellor of the Exchequer on 13 February 2020. On July 5, 2022, Sunak announced his resignation from the government due to a loss of confidence in the leadership of then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Josh Mahoney, senior market analyst at IG Group in London, said the news of Sunak's appointment as the new prime minister had created additional uncertainty in today's markets, and it would essentially be Sunak and Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt to lead the LinkedIn country through the crisis. The reaction in the UK gilt market has undoubtedly been positive, with falling yields raising hope that we will see borrowing costs continue to fall after a tumultuous tenure at Truss. Nevertheless, the pound is under pressure as pro-growth policies are a thing of the past and given the warning signs from the sharply slipped PMI data released this morning. Many hope that the Bank of England's tightening and government policy will quickly push down inflation without doing much harm to the economy. However, traders remain concerned that these policies will be more disruptive to the economy than expected, and high inflation will keep interest rates high for longer.
The international market reacted quickly, with European and American stocks and bonds both rising and the dollar index rising.
U.S. stocks opened mixed, with the Dow up about 0.5%, the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the NASDAQ down 0.4%. In terms of industries, cruise stocks and chip stocks mostly opened higher. European stocks continued to expand gains after the release of weak October PMI data. Spain's IBEX 35 index rose 2% on the day, Italy's FTSE MIB index rose 1.9%, France's CAC 40 index rose 1.8% on the day, Germany's DAX index rose 1.8%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 1.7%, and Europe's Stoxx 600 index extended its gain to 1.6%.
European government bonds rose across the board, with the yield of 10-year government bonds of the United Kingdom and Italy falling by nearly 21 basis points during the day, and the yield of 10-year government bonds of Germany and France falling by 13 basis points during the day. U.S. Treasuries were little volatile, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling 2 basis points on the day. In anticipation of interest rate hikes, the dollar index remained strong, rising by 0.4% on the day.
In addition, European natural gas prices continued to decline due to the continued recovery of inventories and expectations of a warm winter. European benchmark Dutch natural gas TTF futures fell as much as 16% during the day, falling below the €100/MWh mark, down 72% from their August high.
GDP grew 3.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and palm oil imports doubled in September, hitting a new high for the year
On October 24, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first three quarters. According to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters was 870269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in constant prices, 0.5 percentage points faster than the first half of the year.
In the third quarter, the mainland's GDP was 307627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9 percent in constant prices, and 3.5 percentage points faster than the second quarter. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 2,564.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; the added value of the secondary industry was 121553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 160432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. On a month-on-month basis, GDP grew by 3.9% in the third quarter.
Generally speaking, the National Bureau of Statistics said that since the beginning of this year, the mainland's national economy has withstood the pressure and continued to recover, the economy recovered in the third quarter, which is obviously better than the second quarter, production demand has continued to improve, employment prices are generally stable, people's livelihood security is strong and effective, and the overall operation is in a reasonable range. In the next stage, the National Bureau of Statistics stated that it will continue to do a good job in the work of "six stability" and "six guarantees", vigorously grasp the implementation of relevant policies and achieve results, fully release the effectiveness of policies, focus on ensuring that market entities stabilize employment and prices, expand effective demand, promote the activation of reform, consolidate the foundation for economic recovery and development, maintain economic operation in a reasonable range, and strive to achieve the best results.
Shenyin Wanguo Futures analyst Tang Guanghua said in an interview with a reporter from Futures Daily that overall, a series of new policies to stabilize the market since August this year have gradually achieved results, and the extreme weather and epidemic disturbances in August have gradually weakened, and the economy in the third quarter basically showed a rebound trend after contraction, with GDP in the quarter increasing by 3.9% year-on-year, considering the relatively high base of the same period last year, and the overall economic resilience continued.
From the perspective of September alone, Li Yansen, chief macroeconomic researcher of Founder Medium-term Futures Research Institute, analyzed that the growth rate of industrial added value in September rose more than expected, and the increase in output overshadowed the impact of output prices, driving the nominal growth rate to pick up. In terms of industries, while the midstream manufacturing industry maintained steady growth, commodity prices slowed down the pace of decline, which supported the output of the upstream industry, while the midstream raw materials industry grew significantly, benefiting more from the growth of infrastructure investment and the expected improvement of real estate, in addition, the output of major industrial products also indicated that the recovery of midstream and upstream products was faster. The output data performance is consistent with the previously released PMIs, combined with the high-frequency data available in October, indicating that the economy is still on the recovery track, and the pace of active inventory increase has accelerated.
"At the same time, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to rise in September, and more was still driven by infrastructure and manufacturing investment. Among them, infrastructure construction is supported by the early incremental local special debt investment and new policy-based development financial bonds, and it is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm of local special debt balance into financing and investment in the later stage, and it is expected that infrastructure investment can still maintain steady growth before the end of the year. The growth of manufacturing investment corresponds to the improvement in domestic demand and the increase in medium and long-term loans of enterprises. We expect that the main indicators of real estate have bottomed out and will continue to be repaired in the future, and sales can continue to improve and support upstream construction and construction. Li Yansen said.
From the perspective of consumption, Li Yansen said that the total amount of social consumption in September continued to be in line with seasonal growth. It is expected that consumption of goods will continue to be stable, and consumption of services may increase in October due to the impact of Golden Week, but it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic.
It is worth noting that according to the latest data released by the customs statistics online query platform, China's palm oil imports in September were 612,607.17 tons, an increase of 102.4% month-on-month and 26.2% year-on-year, and the import volume hit a new high this year. Among them, 492,425.53 tons of palm oil were imported from Indonesia, an increase of 223,286.9 tons from the previous month. During the same period, palm oil imports from Malaysia were 119,990.02 tons, an increase of 86,571.64 tons month-on-month, and the substitution effect of Indonesian palm oil with lower prices on horse palm was significant. Some analysts pointed out that in the first half of this year, domestic palm oil imports continued to be low, and the pattern of "low inventory and high basis" caused by tight supply has always been accompanied by the market, but with the relaxation of export restrictions in Indonesia, the import profit has been opened again after the superimposed palm oil price has rebounded sharply, and the domestic palm oil import volume has rebounded significantly since July, and the tight spot supply situation has continued to improve.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, in Tang Guanghua's view, the next global economic slowdown will inhibit economic momentum, but as the role of domestic economic stabilization policies continues to play, the mainland's economic growth rate will improve compared with the third quarter. From the policy point of view, the fourth quarter continued to rely on the previous policy of stabilizing the overall market to stimulate domestic demand. First, infrastructure investment will continue to play a supporting role, coupled with the possibility of issuing a part of next year's special bonds in advance in the fourth quarter, infrastructure will continue to maintain rapid growth. Second, the real estate market is expected to stabilize weakly. Recently, policies are exerting force from both the demand side and the supply side, especially the introduction of special loans from policy banks to guarantee the delivery of buildings, which has significantly accelerated the completion speed, which will help stabilize market confidence.
The performance of non-colored varieties is differentiated, with strong copper-nickel and weak zinc-tin
On Monday, the overall trend of domestic non-ferrous varieties diverged. As of the afternoon close, the main contracts for copper and nickel closed higher, up 1.17% and 1.22% respectively, while zinc and tin were weak, down 2.14% and 1.23% respectively.
Xia Yingying, metal director of the South China Futures Advisory Service Department, told reporters that the main reason for the mixed performance of non-ferrous metals in recent years is the differentiation of the fundamentals of varieties. In contrast, the downstream demand for copper and nickel is strong, the superimposed inventory level is low, and the fundamental performance is strong.
"Taking nickel as an example, its downstream demand is currently resilient, the demand for ternary batteries continues to increase, and the supply of MHP is tight; Ferronickel demand also increased on the back of a month-on-month improvement in stainless steel production; At the same time, the demand for pure nickel remains rigid, and the demand for nickel elements is expected to increase in the short term. Xia Yingying said.
Li Yaoyao, a nonferrous researcher at Xinhu Futures, also said that the current global pure nickel inventory continues to be at a historical low, while the demand for nickel is performing well. According to Mysteel data, in September, domestic stainless steel crude steel production increased by 12.1% month-on-month, of which 300 series increased by 7.8% month-on-month, October is expected to domestic stainless steel crude steel production continued to pick up, stainless steel field nickel demand improved, in the cost support and demand improvement driven, nickel iron prices continued to rise; at the same time the new energy field nickel demand remained strong, the recent market MHP supply turned tight, nickel sulfate prices also rose, individual raw material shortage enterprises plan to purchase nickel beans.
"In addition, in the fourth quarter, the main mining area in the Philippines entered the rainy season, and the source of negotiable goods decreased, which led to a recovery in nickel ore quotations." Li Yaoyao believes that in general, in the context of low nickel inventory, demand picks up to boost nickel prices, and it is expected that short-term nickel will be volatile and strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression of nickel prices in the face of macroscopism.
In copper, copper prices rebounded sharply on Monday against the backdrop of the hawkish stance of a number of Fed officials on Friday, the market's expectations for the Fed's 75BP rate hike in December declined, and expectations for the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike were revised.
Xia Yingying analyzed that copper has stronger financial attributes than other non-ferrous varieties, so the impact of changes in macro indicators such as the US dollar index on copper prices will be stronger than other non-ferrous varieties, and the recent decline in the US index has formed a strong boost to copper prices.
From the perspective of copper fundamentals, Li Yaoyao told reporters that economic data released on Monday showed that domestic infrastructure investment increased by 11.2% year-on-year from January to September, boosted by new energy and infrastructure investment, domestic copper consumption performance is acceptable, the operating rate of cable companies in September increased by 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, and the operating rate of copper rod enterprises increased by 2 percentage points year-on-year. Domestic copper consumption is expected to remain resilient in the fourth quarter. From the perspective of supply, domestic copper inventories rebounded sharply after the National Day, as of October 21, the inventory of the previous period increased by 59,000 tons to 89,000 tons compared with September 30, and the inventory recovery made the copper spot rise and the BACK price spread narrowed. It is expected that with the increase in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter, copper inventories may continue to rise, and the support of low inventories and high premiums on copper prices will weaken.
"In addition, on the macro level, the Fed's 75BP interest rate hike in November is still a high probability event, and the global central bank has aggressively raised interest rates in the context of high inflation, and overseas recession expectations continue to suppress copper prices." Overall, we expect copper prices to be range-bound in the fourth quarter. Li Yaoyao said.
From the perspective of non-ferrous varieties that fell on Monday, Xia Yingying believes that the fundamentals of zinc and tin are relatively weak, affected by weak downstream demand, and inventories are in a state of accumulation.
In terms of tin, data show that Shanghai and tin have shown a volatile downward trend since late September, falling by 15,730 yuan / ton from the high of 180,740 yuan / ton on September 22, a decline of 8.7%.
In Xia Yingying's view, the main reason for the decline in tin prices in the past month comes from the negative side of its downstream demand. In the current situation of the global economic situation, the market demand for electronic products has decreased, which in turn has led to a significant decline in demand for the entire solder end. Mobile phone terminal manufacturers led by Samsung and Apple have significantly reduced shipments, and production schedules are gradually moving downward, resulting in weak downstream demand for tin. At the same time, the weak demand for tin is also reflected in the inventory performance of tin, from the domestic point of view, the social inventory of tin has gradually accumulated from more than 1,800 tons at the end of August to more than 4,100 tons; Overseas accumulation is even more serious, with inventories now rising from around 2,000 tons at the beginning of the year to around 4,700 tons.
"Looking ahead, we see the possibility of further declines in tin prices, with the main issue still focused on the demand side. Compared with other colored varieties, tin is more affected by its own fundamentals, so when the demand is not good, the price of tin will also fall more obviously. Therefore, we believe there is room for further declines in tin prices in the future. Xia Yingying said.
Zinc, which led the decline in the non-ferrous sector on Monday, has shown a volatile upward trend since the end of September, rising from a low of 23,260 yuan / ton on September 28 to 24,675 yuan / ton at present. But on Monday, Shanghai zinc fell more than 2%, leading the non-ferrous sector.
"The early rise in zinc prices was mainly due to the long single delivery of some holders, resulting in insufficient spot circulation, but as the delivery ended, the circulation of goods resumed, and the factors supporting the strength of zinc prices gradually disappeared." Xia Yingying said.
From the current point of view, Xia Yingying further said that zinc has the expectation of supply and demand increase, and its fundamentals show signs of weakening. On the supply side, the import window of zinc ore has been open since September, and the current refinery raw material inventory and mine port inventory are at a high level, and the supply at the mine end is loose; At the same time, the latest data released show that zinc ore imports in September were 390,600 tons, an increase of 53.92% year-on-year; in addition, there are also expectations of an increase in production in refined zinc, and zinc ingots flow from refineries to society after the holiday, and the supply increases. On the demand side, zinc demand is expected to weaken month-on-month as the peak season approaches, and inventories are likely to continue to build. Overall, it is expected that the future zinc price will be dominated by weak operation.
The US media revealed that the US 101st Airborne Division was "ready", and Russia issued warnings one after another about the "dirty bomb" problem
According to Russia's TASS news agency on the 24th, a number of senior Russian officials pointed out on the 24th that Ukraine has the threat of using "dirty bombs".
Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that some countries do not believe Russia's warnings about Ukraine or the use of "dirty bombs" does not mean that the threat does not exist. "Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has informed all parties about the relevant information," he said. ”
The commander of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Corps of the Russian Armed Forces, Admiral Igor Kirillov, said on Monday that the two Ukrainian organizations had received clear instructions to create "dirty bombs" and that the work was nearing completion. He said: "The Russian Ministry of Defense has information that the Ukrainian side is planning new provocations to detonate the so-called 'dirty bomb' or low-yield nuclear weapons." The purpose is to blame Russia and accuse Russia of using weapons of mass destruction, thereby setting off a large-scale anti-Russian movement around the world and damaging Russia's reputation. ”
TASS reported that at present, the United States, Britain and France believe that Russia's warnings about Ukraine or the use of "dirty bombs" are "groundless".
In addition, when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is deadlocked and relations between Russia and NATO have deteriorated sharply, more than 4,700 people of the 101st Airborne Division of the US Army have been deployed in Romania. This was the first time the team had appeared on the European continent since World War II. Currently, the 101st Airborne Division is training exercises just a few miles from the Ukrainian border in preparation for a "potential war" with the Russian army. According to the report, the commanders of the 101st Airborne Division declared: "Although this deployment is to defend NATO territory, we are ready to cross the border into Ukraine if the fighting escalates or NATO is attacked." Lubas, deputy commander of the division, told CBS.
This article is from Futures Daily
![Is Megan too inferior? Meghan has really been out of the limelight these days, Kate is sick, she has no opponents, she can't find a benchmark, and Prince Harry has completely left the UK[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)