At the beginning of 2022, Kazakhstan has become the focus of world attention. In just ten days, Kazakhstan experienced turmoil and coup d'état under the watchful eye of public opinion at home and abroad. One wonders, what happened to Kazakhstan? Although the current turmoil has subsided, the CSTO peacekeeping forces, the gradually revealing Western figure, cannot but recall the lingering shadow of "color revolutions". Perhaps, at this juncture, reviewing Kazakhstan's diplomatic route since the founding of the State can help onlookers find some clues from the outside.
Where interests converge, where the competition lies
Perhaps having too many resources is also something to worry about
As a crossroads connecting the Eurasian continent, Central Asia has never lacked the word contention. Nomadic and agrarian peoples, Orthodox and Islamic, Slavic and Mongol, Chinese, Persian, British Empire and Tsarist Russia, almost all those concepts that have profoundly influenced human history can be echoed in the history of Central Asia.
Truly worthy of the "crossroads"
(Source: Bing)
Newly independent Kazakhstan sees a world in which "a skinny camel is bigger than a horse" Russia, which has an important say in the international system and regional system, although it is difficult to maintain the original regional division of labor; To the east, it is a China that is accumulating strength that is difficult to ignore, but at that time China focused on domestic development and was not interested in participating in international affairs; To the south, the Central Asian countries are facing various domestic and foreign difficulties, and it is unknown whether their crises will spill over, and the development of the "three forces" has gradually aroused people's vigilance; The United States, west and into the Western Hemisphere, is seeking further involvement in post-Soviet space affairs, wielding capital and power in exchange for sovereignty.
The discovery of the vast and massive oil and gas resources of the Caspian Sea is both surprising and straining for Kazakhstan. Standing at a geopolitical crossroads, Kazakhstan must not only seek to integrate into the international community, but also to preserve its hard-won sovereignty; It is not only necessary to find a way out for the abundant oil and gas resources and seek economic growth, but also to use this as the cornerstone of diplomacy as much as possible to expand a broader diplomatic space.
Whether reactive or active, Kazakhstan's diplomacy has embarked on a "road to water".
Three parties come to the water, and the end is balanced
Relationships that cannot be avoided are better to manage seriously
(1) The waters of the northern territory
Tokayev and Putin met very happily
(Source: Bing)
Geographically, Kazakhstan's diplomacy must first deal with relations with Russia. The long borders, the inescapable entanglements of history, the practical interests of collusion, and the large scale of Russians in Kazakhstan make Kazakhstan necessary to take Russia seriously. At the beginning of independence, a rising wave of nationalism pushed Kazakh-Russian relations to the brink of tension, but this fierce mood was soon replaced by sober reason. Kazakhstan's relations with Russia are based on cooperation, involving political, economic, military, financial, regional agendas and other aspects. After independence, Kazakhstan also increasingly found the need to integrate into the international system with the strength and experience of Russia, and in the 90s the two countries dealt with a series of historical problems and formed a basic framework for cooperation, laying the foundation for future cooperation. In the new century, Kazakhstan's relations with Russia have become more pragmatic, and what is particularly noteworthy is that after the end of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, Nazarbayev proposed to accelerate the construction of the Eurasian Economic Union in a timely manner. The organization finally became operational in 2015, which is seen as an important step in economic integration within the CIS.
(2) The waters of the Western Ocean
Russia and the CIS are undoubtedly Kazakhstan's primary diplomatic directions, but Kazakhstan's diplomatic goals are not to succumb to Russia's "great power shadow". In order to seek a broader international space and truly integrate into the international system and the international community, it is necessary for Kazakhstan to maintain good relations with the United States, Europe and other Western countries. And in the face of the great changes in the world pattern at the beginning of the end of the Cold War, there are and only Western countries led by the United States that can bring the post-Soviet countries, including Russia, into the international community.
NATO's presence in Central Asia is enough for Russia to take seriously
(Source: Microsoft Bing)
After the end of the Cold War, NATO and the European Union have taken measures to "expand eastward", and Kazakhstan is still a member of NATO's "Partnership for Peace Program" today, and the annual military exercise "Steppe Eagle" jointly organized by NATO and Kazakhstan since 2003 has also continued until 2019 before the epidemic, and the EU's eastward expansion plan has almost leveraged Russia's Central Asian "backyard". The United States has always coveted the rich oil and gas resources of Central Asia, and after the start of the war on terrorism in Afghanistan, the United States has a specific grip on intervening in Central Asia, and cooperation with Central Asian countries has been further deepened. Kazakhstan actively and moderately introduces Western factors into the country's foreign relations, which not only forms a considerable degree of hedging against the geopolitical pressure brought by Russia, but also successfully contacts the frontier agenda of the international community on the basis of fully safeguarding national sovereignty and seeks to play an active role.
(3) The waters of the East
For Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, China's rise has brought new factors to regional peace, stability and development. In terms of energy, Kazakhstan's abundant oil and gas resources will seek a large and stable market in China, and China also needs more diversified and safer energy channels; In terms of security, both Kazakhstan and China are facing serious threats from the "three forces" that need to be solved urgently. In this context, Kazakhstan attaches great importance to its role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which was established in 2001 to combat terrorism. In 2013, Nazarbayev University of Kazakhstan became the birthplace of China's "Silk Road Economic Belt" concept, and with the gradual implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, China's economic role in Kazakhstan's diplomatic system has become increasingly important. In 2019, the first President of Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev, was awarded the "Order of Friendship", the highest foreign honor of the People's Republic of China, which also shows the good and profound friendship between Kazakhstan and China.
Kazakhstan has become an important source of hydrocarbon energy for China
(Source: Bing)
Central Asia, where various interests, relations, and forces converge, inevitably faces explicit or covert external contention, but even so, Kazakhstan is unwilling to become a "chessboard" in the game of great powers. While making peace with Russia, Kazakhstan actively and moderately contacts with the West to hedge against the geopolitical pressure brought by Russia. In the process of China's rise, it quickly caught the express train of China's development, making up for the economic advantages that the United States and Russia could not give, and at the same time cooperating with China and Russia to ease the pressure of "color revolutions". It can be said that Kazakhstan has achieved "Duanshui" between China, the United States and Russia to the extreme.
Find the water far away and quench my thirst
Not only in the answer, but also in the seek
(1) Turkic waters
In November 2021, the Organization of Turkic-speaking Countries announced the name change to the Organization of Turkic States, which once again sparked a wave of public opinion. In fact, "Turkism" is exactly the "bowl of water" that Kazakhstan has taken the initiative to carry since the founding of the state. At the beginning of independence, Kazakh nationalism flourished, and Nazarbayev made relevant statements in support of "Turkism" more than once. This coincides with Turkey's willingness to expand its power. In this way, under the active initiative of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Kyrgyzstan announced the establishment of the "Parliament of Turkic-speaking Countries" in 2009, and then changed its name and expanded several times, until the "Organization of Turkic States" came out last year. There are also a large number of universities and educational projects related to Turkey in Kazakhstan, as well as the "World Turkic Academy of Sciences" specializing in academic research, and it can be said that Kazakhstan plays a very important role in the relevant agenda of the world "Turkism".
A "sensitive" inter-state cooperation organization
(Source: Bing)
However, Kazakhstan is still "Duanshui" in the final analysis, and there are a wide range of Turkic-speaking peoples in both Russia and China, and there are more or less hidden concerns of separatist forces in these ethnic areas, especially the terrorist forces of "East Turkistan", and Kazakhstan needs to find a balance between being able to fully demonstrate its "Turkism" and ultra-nationalism, as well as the legitimate concerns of other countries.
(2) Global water
As mentioned earlier, Kazakhstan is not willing to succumb to the geopolitical constraints of Central Asia. It is precisely for this reason that Kazakhstan has always been active in the global governance agenda, especially the CICA Conference. At the United Nations General Assembly in 1992, then Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed the establishment of such a platform. After unremitting efforts, the initiative was gradually implemented from the expert meeting to the foreign ministers' meeting, and finally the first CICA summit was held in Almaty, Kazakhstan in 2002. Since the beginning of the new century, this platform has gradually become institutionalized and has become a very important forum for security cooperation in the Asian region and a successful move for Kazakhstan to participate in global governance. In addition, Kazakhstan is actively participating in regional integration in Central Asia and in resolving regional hotspot issues. So far, the "Astana process" is still an important platform for resolving the Syrian issue, and Kazakhstan's mediation can also be seen in the Russian-Turkish conflict in 2015. Kazakhstan's actions have won high praise from the international community and have effectively enhanced its international status.
Conclusion
Long sleeves are not easy to dance in interpersonal situations, and it is even more difficult in the world
In Kazakhstan's foreign policy, the three echelons of diplomacy are never minounced, which hint at the knack for the success of Kazakhstan's "Duanshui art". Of these three echelons, the first echelon is Russia and the CIS, the second is China and Iran and other Islamic countries, and the third is the United States and Western countries such as the European Union. It is precisely because Kazakhstan has both ambition and judgment of the situation that it can be on the "chessboard" and become a "chess player", and can achieve the art of diplomacy of small and medium-sized countries.
However, despite Kazakhstan's extreme diplomacy, it cannot change the fact that it is at the intersection of the interests of world powers, and thus has to face the "front" of great power competition. The core of "Duanshui" lies in "living", and Kazakhstan must maintain a relatively high degree of flexibility between the interests of major powers and national interests. However, this is itself an extremely high test for the leader who masters the course of the country, Nazarbayev can, Tokayev as one of the founders of the foreign policy of the republic, but how will the next successor face? In addition, the requirement for flexibility actually implies the fact that various domestic interest groups are highly subordinate, so can this obedience be sustained in the long run? At least from the sudden unrest at the beginning of this year, we can see that perhaps there is a division within Kazakhstan, and if the country does not take decisive measures, the country is likely to become a contest between great powers, and Kazakhstan will probably have very little "water" to raise again.
Ask where the canal is clear,
For the source of living water.
This is especially true in Central Asia, a water-poor place.
(The author is Yang Xiaojie, an assistant intern at a research fellow at the University Diplomacy Think Tank; Reviewed by Wu Xiang and Wang Gaigai)
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