Per reporter: Li Menglin Per editor: Gao Han
British Prime Minister Truss's large-scale tax cut plan after taking office has caused violent turmoil in the British financial market, aroused widespread doubts and criticism from the outside world, and his personal image has also been hit. After the "fire" of Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwarten, who co-formulated economic policy last Friday (October 14), it is now Truss's turn to worry about his job.
According to CCTV news citing the "Guardian" news, a number of senior Conservative Party lawmakers will meet on October 17 local time to discuss Truss's stay, and some of them hope that Truss will resign in a few days. Britain's "Daily Mail" quoted anonymous sources as saying that more than 100 Conservative MPs are ready to submit a letter of no confidence to Truss to the chairman of the party's committee in charge of affairs, hoping to oust Truss within this week.
Meanwhile, Truss is working with newly appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt to revise his "blindly optimistic" fiscal policy. Whether the policy of the Great Turn can calm financial markets as soon as possible will undoubtedly have a significant impact on Truss's stay.
Just over 40 days in office, Truss may become the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.
Truss Image source: Visual China-VCG31N1243010391
Is it a foregone conclusion to "force the palace" to step down?
Truss may have been the worst prime minister in modern British history. On September 23, then-Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwarten announced a £43bn tax cut to boost the economy. The biggest tax cut in 50 years sparked concerns about the British government's finances, the pound fell and British gilts sold off sharply.
Poor policies have raised questions about Truss's ability to govern. According to a poll by pollster PeoplePoll last week, only 9% of British voters have a positive view of Truss.
On October 16, local time, Conservative MP Jamie Wallis wrote directly to Truss, asking her to step down. "In recent weeks, I have witnessed the current government undermining the UK's economic credibility and irreparably damaging our political parties. It's time to stop," he tweeted.
According to media reports, as of the evening of the 16th local time, three Conservative MPs have publicly asked Truss to step down. Below the surface, the Conservative Party's push for Truss's ouster is also accelerating.
According to CCTV news quoted by the British "Guardian" news, the main supporters of former British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak will hold a dinner party on the evening of the 17th local time, and 15 to 20 former British cabinet members and a number of senior parliamentarians are invited to participate. It is reported that the main topic of the dinner is to discuss how and when to remove Prime Minister Truss. Sunak lost to Truss in the final round in his bid for Conservative leader and prime minister, but his support within the Conservative party remains high.
According to the British "Daily Mail", anonymous sources said that more than 100 Conservative MPs are ready to submit a letter of no confidence in Truss to the chairman of the "1922 Committee" responsible for organizing the leadership campaign in the party, planning to remove Truss this week. They demanded that chairman Graham Brady either tell Truss that "her time is up" (implying that he persuades Truss to resign himself) or amend party rules to immediately launch a vote of confidence in Truss.
Graham Brady reportedly opposed the plan, arguing that Truss and the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hunt, should be given a chance to propose revised fiscal policy.
"I don't think she'll last long, and I'll give her a few weeks at most, or even less," said Vernon Bogdanor, a professor of political science at King's College London, adding that many Conservative MPs are most worried about Truss's reputation dragging down the Conservatives' crushing defeat in the next general election, "motivated by fear of losing their seats." ”
However, under the current policy of the Conservative Party, Truss's premiership is protected by a one-year exemption period. To amend this provision, about two-thirds of the nearly 360 Conservative MPs would need to propose to the "1922 Commission", which is a high threshold. This means that Truss will most likely not be ousted immediately.
The shortest serving prime minister in British history was George Canning. He died in office in 1827 after 119 days in office. Truss needs more than two and a half months to avoid setting a record for the shortest term.
New finance minister urgently "firefighting"
In order to save his premiership, Truss spent the whole day on Sunday (16th) discussing the revised medium-term fiscal plan with newly appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt. She plans to convene cabinet members on the evening of the 17th to listen to their opinions on the fiscal plan.
Originally, the plan, which aims to ensure market confidence in the UK's fiscal sustainability, was scheduled to be released on October 31. However, after the pressure of "forcing the palace" was successively broken out in the media, Hunter announced that he would make a statement on the medium-term fiscal plan at 18 o'clock Beijing time on the 17th, and made some disclosures on the main measures in the plan in advance.
Hunt is widely expected to further reverse Truss's fiscal policy. At the opening of the market on Monday, the British stock and bond exchange rate rose across the board. At press time, the yield on the UK 10-year bond slipped about 22.3 basis points (yield inversely to price) to 4.0975%. Considering that the Bank of England's temporary bond purchase program to support the government bond market ended on Friday, this increase is considerable. The pound rose 0.87% against the dollar to 1.1267 and Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.67% to 6904.64.
Image source: Yingwei Finance
After taking office on the 16th, Hunter said that the previously proposed fiscal policy was too "blindly optimistic" about the prospects, and ignored the basic demands of ordinary people, damaging the credibility of the government.
Hunter also criticized his predecessor, Kwoten. He said the abolition of the top income tax rate of 45 percent and the plan without the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) publishing costing were two major "mistakes" that he would correct.
According to the Sunday Times, British government sources said Hunt is expected to announce a one-year delay in plans to cut the base income tax rate by 1 per cent next April, another reversal of Truss's fiscal plan. Delaying the tax cuts for one year could reportedly add around £5 billion to revenue.
"Hunt is off to a good start as Chancellor of the Exchequer," Conservative MP Mel Stride said on Twitter, "[He] sent the message 'we know what to do and are working on it.'" ”
An anonymous Conservative veteran told Bloomberg that if financial markets stabilize and Hunt dominates fiscal policy, Truss's prime minister could last for weeks or even months. He thinks this is the most likely outcome, given that there is no consensus within the Conservative Party on who will replace Truss, and many MPs are willing to give Hunt's new policy some time to test its effects.
Roger Gale, another senior Conservative MP, believes that the power of Downing Street has been transferred from No. 10 (prime minister) to No. 11 (chancellor) and "I think Hunt has become the de facto prime minister," he told the BBC.
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