On September 2, India announced the official commissioning of its first self-built aircraft carrier, the USS Vikrant. India has become the sixth country after the United States, Russia, Britain, France and China to build its own large and medium-sized aircraft carriers.
The construction cost of the "Vikrant" aircraft carrier is about 17 billion yuan, which has been planned for more than 20 years since its inception. The aircraft carrier is about 260 meters long, about 60 meters wide, has a displacement of about 40,000 tons, a maximum speed of 28 knots, a sustainable navigation of 8,000 nautical miles, and can carry 30 carrier-based aircraft.
However, the carrier-based aircraft on the "Vikrant" aircraft carrier are still several Russian MiG fighters borrowed from India's first aircraft carrier, the Super Sun King.
On the same day, the Indian Navy changed its flag to a new flag with the British St. George's cross-character number removed and an octagonal coat of arms on a gold-rimmed blue background, which is derived from the octagonal seal of Shivaji, the monarch of the ancient Maratha Empire and the "father of the navy" of India.
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Twenty days ago, on August 15, India solemnly commemorated the 75th anniversary of independence. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a 75-minute speech at Red Fort, New Delhi, in which he vowed to build India into a developed country over the next 25 years.
40 days ago, on July 25, India welcomed the first indigenous female president in history, Derapadi Murmu, the second female president since India's independence.
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"Murmud is a very good candidate for the Modi government, first, she is a woman; Second, she is a buraku; Third, she is particularly clean politically, with half of India's parliamentarians having criminal cases. ”
According to the Indian Constitution, the president is the head of state and the commander-in-chief of the three armed forces, but India has a cabinet system, most of which is actually carried out by the prime minister, and the president is a symbolic virtual head of state.
Some media believe that India is trying to get rid of the burden of the caste system and the image of women and vulnerable groups that are difficult to turn over, and the Bharatiya Janata Party fully supports the election of Murmu, who has a positive image, comes from the grassroots and has experienced ups and downs, which is undoubtedly a good move.
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"When Murmud became president I think it was more of a symbolic meaning of symbolic significance. For the entire Indian society, including the solidification of class and the status of women, there will not be a substantial improvement. ”
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In addition to the status of women, there is also a continuing concern about India's rapid and steady population. India now employs 1.412 billion people, and a United Nations report predicts that by 2023, India will surpass China to become the most populous country in the world. By 2050, India's population will increase by 250 million to 1.668 billion.
Surveys show that 22% of the world's new workforce over the next 30 years will come from India. At the same time, the matching education training and employment opportunities that the Indian government can provide to the people are far from enough.
Wang Shida, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asia, China Academy of Contemporary International Relations:
"On the streets of India, including New Delhi, Mumbai and some other major cities, you can often see a bunch of people standing there doing nothing, probably nothing lively, they're standing there."
Although the rapid population can bring abundant labor, the pressure on social security, health resources, and ecological resources is also obvious.
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India's huge population pressure is also transmitted to the military.
On June 14, India announced the implementation of a new conscription system, "Agni Road", planning to recruit 46,000 new recruits between the ages of 17.5 and 21, "Agni Warriors", each new recruit serves for four years, after which three-quarters of the people have to leave, leaving only a quarter of the soldiers can stay in service for 15 years, which is a huge change from the old system of 17 years of service.
The upheaval in the old and new military service systems also lies in the welfare of military personnel after service. Under the old system, veterans were entitled to a lifetime long salary, while the new system of military personnel could only receive a discharge payment of about HK$110,000 to HK$120,000 after retirement, which was obviously less attractive than the regular long salary. As soon as the "Path of Fire" was launched, it attracted the anger of the people.
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"He raised a huge army, and the huge army formed a very powerful interest group, and he knocked out the jobs of a large number of these people who had been making a living as soldiers from their ancestors."
It is widely believed that India wants to change the military service system even if it provokes public anger because the current financial burden is too heavy and has to be reformed.
Wang Shida, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asia, China Academy of Contemporary International Relations:
"Who will reform benefit? Standing in the ruling party. For lower- and middle-class families, this is a way to achieve class rise, because after all, it has been guaranteed by the national finances, but it is clear that this practice has placed a serious burden on India's finances. ”
In addition, India is also vigorously promoting reforms in the military industry and the theater system.
Wang Shida, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asia, China Academy of Contemporary International Relations:
"The Indian authorities are trying to prioritize the implementation of so-called Made in India in the military industry, banning imports and having to produce them locally. Obviously, these orders are beneficial to local Indian companies. The starting point of the reform of the theater system is to improve the coordinated combat capability of the Indian three armed forces. ”
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In addition, India has recently targeted a large number of Chinese companies in India.
On May 30, India's Ministry of Corporate Affairs said it had received an anonymous report that Chinese companies in India might have committed fraud and other violations, and immediately launched an investigation into more than 500 Chinese companies, including ZTE, Vivo, Oppo and Huawei.
Wang Shida, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asia, China Academy of Contemporary International Relations:
"The Restriction and Suppression of Chinese Enterprises by the Indian Side is a national policy and a long-term approach."
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"India has always had a tradition of 'killing pigs behind closed doors', and although a foreign company has done a good job of localization in India, once it is stronger and bigger, there will be various informal obstacles."
Over the past two years, the Indian government's attitude towards Chinese enterprises has been uncertain. In 2020, after the conflict between China and India in the Galwan Valley, India has removed more than 200 Chinese apps. In March 2021, Indian officials said they could "selectively consider Chinese investment." In January 2022, when China and India held the 14th round of military commander-level talks, India said it was considering easing restrictions on some Chinese investment. Three months later, India launched an investigation into Vivo on the grounds that there were "material irregularities in financial reporting."
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"India's diplomacy, and even its foreign behavior, is of course a bit petty, always stressing that the border must return to the situation in April 2020, as long as China does not agree, it will continue to suppress Chinese-funded enterprises, in this way to make China pay a certain price."
In India, Chinese-made electronic products and daily necessities can be found everywhere.
Indian social activist Manu Singh:
"In 2015 or 2014, the market share of Indian companies was 70%, the market share of Chinese companies was 30%, now Indian companies are 1%, and Chinese companies are 68%."
In 2021, the bilateral trade volume between China and India exceeded the 100 billion US dollar mark for the first time, reaching 125.66 billion US dollars, an increase of 43% year-on-year. At the same time, the trade deficit between China and India also reached a record $74 billion.
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"After the Chinese purchasing group went to India, there was nothing that could really be purchased, or there were not many commodities, and what China really wanted to purchase, such as iron ore, India felt that this was India's resource and wanted to stay in India."
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On 26 February and 2 March 2022, the UN Security Council held a vote on the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and India abstained. On April 7, the United Nations General Assembly voted on whether to suspend Russia's membership in the Human Rights Council, and India again abstained.
Wang Shida, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asia, China Academy of Contemporary International Relations:
"Now it leads to India's success in achieving what it calls 'equidistant diplomacy', while both sides have demands of it."
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"India can eat at both ends, the United States can eat, Russia can eat, but for Russia, India is still quite iron brother."
On May 24, the summit of the U.S.-Japan-Australia-India Quadripartite Security Dialogue was held in Japan, and India did not follow its allies in imposing sanctions on Russia. On the contrary, India even proposed that trade between India and Russia be settled in rubles and continue trade with Moscow to reduce the pressure on Russia to be subject to Western sanctions. As early as the Crimean incident in 2014, India did the same.
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"If Russia is completely on the same side with China and Pakistan, Russia will become India's third enemy, so India cannot tolerate this situation, which is why despite the pressure of the United States, it must maintain its relations with Russia, which is a very important strategic consideration."
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, India has not only not participated in economic sanctions against Moscow, but also expanded economic and trade cooperation with Russia. On June 12, a new sea route connecting Russia and India was opened, and it currently takes only 14 days from St. Petersburg to Mumbai.
Lin Minwang, Deputy Director of the South Asia Research Center, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University:
"For India's strategic balance, the metaphor is that India holds two balls in its hands, and these two balls are thrown upwards at the same time, the left hand throws the right hand, the right hand throws the left hand, and the United States must feel that India is a partner that can be won, and Russia will feel that it has not lost India."
As early as the 1950s and 1960s, the Soviet Union had exported food and provided economic assistance to India to assist in its military development. In 1971, India and the Soviet Union concluded a treaty of friendship and cooperation, establishing close relations between the two sides. In the same year, the Indo-Pakistani War broke out, the Soviet Union supported India, and the Soviet Union supported the independence of Bangladesh, which was then East Pakistan, and since then India-Russia relations have been friendly for a long time.
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India is trying to find a strategic balance between the Russian-American conflict. To address maritime challenges, India needs the United States; In the face of inland challenges, India needs Russia. India is constantly adding its bargaining chips, after all, on the other side of the Himalayas, there is a large neighbor.
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"We have caught the weakness of the United States, and although the United States and Russia are in fundamental conflict with Russia and Ukraine, India knows that China is a long-term problem for the United States."
The total length of the Sino-Indian border is nearly 2,000 kilometers, and there are territorial disputes in an area of more than 120,000 square kilometers, involving three parts: the western, central and eastern sections, and sovereignty has never been formally delimited in history. The two countries have long formed a traditional line of custom according to the administrative jurisdiction of both sides, but there have been many confrontations, conflicts and even small-scale wars for decades.
In June 2020, Chinese and Indian soldiers clashed bloodily in the Galwan Valley, killing at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers in the line of duty, and relations between the two countries continued to be tense, with each hoarding troops on the border. According to US media reports, in mid-October 2022, the United States and India will hold a joint military exercise in the Orly area of Uttarakhand, less than 100 kilometers from the disputed Line of Actual Control between China and India.
Lin Minwang, Deputy Director of the South Asia Research Center, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University:
"India wants to tell the United States that the Sino-Indian relationship will be a long-term antagonistic relationship, so if the United States supports it, it will consume China for a long time, and India and the United States have common interests in jointly responding to China's rise."
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As one of the four ancient civilizations, India was once an advocate of the Non-Aligned Movement and a representative of the Third World, with a relatively independent and complete national economic system and good military strength. India has been quite active in international organizations, actively seeking opportunities to leap into a political power.
Wang Shida, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asia, China Academy of Contemporary International Relations:
"India's founding prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, once said, 'India, by its position, cannot play a second-rate role, either to become a great power with a voice and color, or to disappear.' Second-rate roles don't appeal to me, and second-rate roles I don't think are possible'. This sentence can be said to sum up the Indian authorities' dream of a great power. ”
Covid-19, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and mismanagement directly overwhelmed Sri Lanka in mid-2022, and the government declared bankruptcy. In response, neighboring India has provided significant assistance and has so far provided about $3.5 billion worth of loans and currency swaps.
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University:
"First of all, we must know that in South Asia, India has always regarded itself as a regional hegemon, and India is actually engaged in The Monroe Doctrine of South Asia."
Although India wants to seize the development opportunities, it has no choice but to restrict itself. According to estimates by an Indian university, 50 million Indians could have been lifted out of poverty by 2020, but the pandemic has ruthlessly shattered their dreams, leaving 230 million people in poverty due to the pandemic, living on less than $5 a day.
Between 2019 and 2021, the share of global FDI inflows to India fell from 3.4% to 2.8%. The U.S. State Department's 2021 Investment Climate Statement more directly describes India as a challenging place to do business. According to the World Bank, in 2021, India's manufacturing industry will only account for about 14% of the gross national product, and it will not meet the target of providing 100 million jobs, industrial development will be slow, and the global road to Indian manufacturing exports will remain long.
Wang Shida, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asia, China Academy of Contemporary International Relations:
"Now that there are many new formats, including artificial intelligence and new infrastructure, India has not completed the manufacturing and industrial take-off, and how to handle the relationship with the world economy in the current new format is crucial."
As Asia's third-largest economy, India's Asia strategy can influence peace and stability throughout Asia. In particular, at present, the United States is constantly promoting the Indo-Pacific strategy and trying to reshape the regional security structure, and India has become a "fragrant food" for the West to win. Asia's destiny stands at a new historical starting point, and India's strategic choice has also reached a crossroads.
Producer: Ke Zhongping
Choreographer: Zhou Zhenghao, Yue Mengying
Editor: Ding Xiao