According to the Russian EADaily website, a few days ago, the Russian "Eurasian - New Wave" fund organized a roundtable in Bishkek, focusing on "Afghanistan a year later: is the terrorist threat from the Taliban still there?" "This topic is discussed by experts. The event was attended by experts from Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.
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Kyrgyzstani political analyst Mars Saliyev said at the meeting that terrorist groups from Afghanistan could launch an armed invasion of Central Asia, particularly Tajikistan, by October.
For the United States, Afghanistan under the Taliban is a tool for destabilizing the Central Asian region.
"NATO forces have left the Taliban with a lot of weapons and armaments. At the same time, the Taliban have no positive experience in state governance and peace-building. I think Western strategists have the intention that the Taliban, who cannot cope with domestic conditions, will go to war in neighboring countries. That is, do what they do best. At the same time, the West and Eurasia are at odds in Afghanistan. Russia, Iran, China, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have tried to negotiate with the country's unrecognized government to spur its peaceful development. Because unlike the United States, we need a stable, developing Afghanistan. Sariyev explained.
He argues that Central Asian countries and Russia need to "develop a unified policy and build joint think tanks to resist destructive Western projects."
Sarryev warned: "If each continues to implement its loose policy without a unified strategy, then the Western concept center will be 'in the room' in Afghanistan." ”
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Sefolo Safov, president of the Association of Political Scientists of Tajikistan, believes that the threat in the region has increased significantly since the Taliban came to power.
"Drug trafficking through Tajikistan has increased 2 times in one year," he said. In addition, the Badakhshan province of Afghanistan has gathered many conflicting terrorist organizations. They threaten the security of Tajikistan and the entire Central Asian region. According to the latest United Nations report, about 10,000 militants are stationed in Afghanistan. In addition, the Afghan National Resistance Front is growing. ”
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Russian political analyst Anna Korolevskaya believes that "poor Afghans can only be forced into the drug trade".
"Drugs were and are the main source of income in Afghanistan," she said. In particular, the current overseas assets of the Central Bank of Afghanistan have been frozen, prohibiting the supply of dollars to the country. ”
At the same time, however, she believes that there have been some positive changes in the situation under the current Afghan Government.
"(According to data,) During the six months of Taliban rule, the U.N. mission in Afghanistan recorded three-quarters fewer deaths. Most of them were caused by Islamic State attacks. In addition, the authorities are trying to build a trans-Afghan railway that connects Afghanistan with northeastern Pakistan through Central Asia. Although the project should have started 50 years ago. If it were launched under the Taliban regime, it would be a huge economic breakthrough for Afghanistan. Korolevskaya added.
At the same time, she believes the Taliban are "not interested in attacking neighboring countries because they are busy dealing with internal problems and trying to maintain order and build a regular army."
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Nikita Mendekovich, head of the Moscow Eurasian Analysis Club, believes that Russia and central Asian countries now have no choice but to reach an agreement with the Afghan authorities.
"We may not like the Taliban regime, but it is flesh and blood in national politics," he said. Nor was the country's original regime known for secularism and humanism. Under Ghani, for example, the military has the power to execute extrajudicially anyone suspected of cooperating with the Taliban. These provisions are often unacceptable and unwanted by us. But unfortunately, we don't have another Afghan or another Afghan regime. We can only deal with existing [regimes]. Either we negotiate with this problematic neighbor or launch a military operation. Of course, no one is interested in the latter. ”
In this context, Mendekovich proposed strengthening the borders of Afghanistan's neighboring countries and establishing diplomatic relations with the Taliban government.
"Strengthening borders will help stop drug trafficking and illegal immigration from infiltrating our country." Cooperation with the Afghan Government is also important. Although not recognized, the Taliban do control the situation in the country. Therefore, I think that some politicians trying to fund or otherwise support the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front is dangerous behavior. I confess that some people in Tajikistan 'like' these rebels, but cannot bet on them, and they will not have a real impact on politics in the coming years. Above all, we need to reach a common position on Afghanistan. Build national coalitions to protect and strengthen borders, combat drug trafficking and build relations with the Taliban. But the Taliban must not interfere with women's rights issues or the establishment of an inclusive Government in Afghanistan. Mendekovich concluded.
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Faridun Usmonov, director of the Foundation for Dialogue of Civilizations in Tajikistan, believes that "describing the Pashtun government as having no choice" is incorrect and even dangerous.
"Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic state," he said. An inclusive Government that encompasses all political parties, movements and peoples needs to be established here. Of all the Central Asian countries, however, Tajikistan is the most vulnerable to the Afghan threat. We have a common border of 1200 km long. Between 40 and 47 per cent of Afghanistan's population is Ethnic Tajik. We cannot but worry about it. That is why our most acceptable option is to create a federation with special powers over the regions. If this is not done, it will be difficult to build a united, peaceful State here. ”
Usmonov also expressed doubts about whether the Taliban were truly in control of the situation in Afghanistan.
"The Taliban don't even control their own groups," he said. Terrorist attacks, which have resulted in a number of deaths, continue to occur. Not long ago, United States security forces launched an operation in Afghanistan to eliminate Al-Qaida leader Zawahiri. This shows that the Taliban are under the control of the United States. In fact, NATO's hasty withdrawal is precisely to transfer power in Afghanistan to the Taliban. Indirect evidence suggests that it was the United States that has contributed to the spread of Taliban influence in northern Afghanistan in recent years. ”
Source: Asia Express
Compile: Vika