There are many big things on Sunday!
According to the central radio and television station, the "American Association in Taiwan" confirmed on the evening of the 14th that 5 members of the congressional delegation led by US Senator Ed Markey landed at Taipei Songshan Airport at about 19:00 on the 14th in a US Air Force C-40C administrative plane, and will visit Taiwan on the 14th and 15th.
Recently, US politicians have frequently visited the Taiwan region, sending a serious wrong signal to the "Taiwan independence" forces. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly urged the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three Sino-US joint communiques with practical actions, stop any form of official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, stop sending wrong signals to the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, and "not go farther and farther down the wrong and dangerous road." ”
Global Network quoted the United States Fox News Network reported on the 14th that witnesses saw an unidentified man driving into the roadblock near the US Capitol, the man got out of the car after the vehicle was engulfed in flames, the man then shot into the air, and finally committed suicide.
The news released by the US Capitol police on the 14th said that the incident occurred at about 4 a.m. local time, when the Capitol police heard the gunshots immediately reacted, when the police approached the man, he shot himself, no one else was injured. U.S. Congressional police investigators are investigating the man's background.
According to yesterday's news from the South China Sea Strategic SituationAlign, combined with remote sensing satellite imagery and carrier-based aircraft trajectories, the US Navy's "Reagan" aircraft carrier went south again around August 12, and by noon on the 13th, two days had turned southwest into about 500 nautical miles, and is currently located in the waters south of Okinawa. Recently, Typhoon "Mire" has ravaged the waters south of the Main Island of Japan and honshu Island, and the "Reagan" may have considered shelter from the wind. In addition, several senior U.S. officials have repeatedly said in recent days that they "will send warships and aircraft through the Taiwan Strait in the coming weeks," and that the carrier strike group may be designed to orchestrate these tasks or maintain a deterrent posture, although the aircraft carrier is unlikely to be directly involved in such operations.
The United States imposes new export controls on EDA tools, among others
On August 12, local time, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) disclosed in the Federal Register a new temporary final rule for export restrictions, involving advanced semiconductors, turbine engines and other fields.
The ban imposes new export controls on EDA/ECAD software necessary for integrated circuits with GAAFET (surround gate field effect transistor) structures, ultra-wide bandgap semiconductor materials represented by diamond and gallium oxide, and four technologies, including pressure gain combustion (PGC).
The ban takes effect on August 15, 2022!
The influence of EDA software restrictions is as strong as Samsung, and the 3nm GAA architecture process technology that it just broke through in June was also completed with the full assistance of EDA software such as ANSYS, Synopsys, cadence and so on. Without the cooperation of EDA software, it is more difficult to break through the limitations of architecture and process.
What is the "Mother of Chips" EDA software?
According to Tianfeng International Research Report, if chip manufacturing is compared to building a building, IC design is the design drawing of the building, EDA software is the design tool of this drawing, but the complexity of EDA software is N orders of magnitude higher than architectural design software.
EDA is a "small and fine" link in the field of integrated circuit industry, with a small output value but extremely important. According to data from THE CCID think tank, the global EDA market grew from $6.22 billion to $7.23 billion from 2018 to 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.81%. It's not worth mentioning the hundreds of billions of dollars of integrated circuit industry, but without this product, all chip design companies around the world will have to shut down.
Tianfeng International concluded that U.S. pressure on China has been comprehensively upgraded from the trade field to science and technology. EDA, as the "pearl of semiconductors", will inevitably be restricted by the United States. In the face of this long R&D cycle and low profit industry, Chinese EDA companies that lack long-term capital, talent and industrial chain support are still struggling. But even if the road ahead is long, domestic EDA must be there.
Foreign media: More than 72,000 people in Japan were ordered to evacuate
According to CCTV Finance, the Russian Satellite Agency quoted Japan's Kyodo News Agency on the 13th as saying that more than 72,000 people in Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan, were ordered to evacuate due to the imminent approaching of Typhoon Mire No. 8 this year.
Evacuation instructions are the fourth of five potential threat levels, which means retreating to a safe location while evacuation is still possible. Next is the highest fifth level, which means that the threat is imminent and must be urgently escaped. Authorities called for the evacuation to be completed before the level five threat was declared.
Typhoon Mire was reported to have formed on the 12th in the northwest Pacific Ocean south of Japan. It is expected to hit Japan's Pacific coast on the afternoon of the 13th, and it may be Shizuoka Prefecture that bears the brunt of it. According to the meteorological department, more than 200 mm of rain has been received here in the past 24 hours.
What causes steel prices to strengthen in the off-season?
Since the middle of July, the current price of thread and iron ore has strengthened, the main futures price of rebar has risen to 4158 yuan / ton, the cumulative increase of the low level is more than 570 yuan / ton, and the cumulative increase of spot prices in East China is also more than 400 yuan / ton; The main futures price of iron ore rose from the lowest 598 yuan / ton to a high of 755 yuan / ton, an increase of 26.25%, and the Platts iron ore price index rose from the lowest 96.45 US dollars / ton to 117.95 US dollars / ton.
Tu Weihua, a researcher at the black department of Boseong Futures, told reporters that the driving thread and iron ore strength stemmed from three factors, one of which was the internal and external macro atmosphere switch, the Fed's interest rate hike in July was in line with market expectations, and inflation also ushered in a high decline, the corresponding domestic clear "guarantee of the building", real estate concerns have eased, coupled with strong exports in July, the domestic economy is expected to be good, the market macro sentiment ushered in an improvement, driving the domestic commodity collective upward. One is that the supply contraction has brought about an improvement in the fundamentals of the steel market, especially the construction steel is the most significant, and the weekly output of rebar under the active reduction of steel mills has dropped to 2.3029 million tons, refreshing the historical data, and the low supply of threads in the off-season has been greatly removed from the warehouse, boosting the ferrous metal market. Finally, the improvement of steel profits superimposed on the low inventory of raw materials in the factory, and the expected resumption of production of steel mills drives the price of raw materials to strengthen.
Since the beginning of this year, the overall trend of the entire black futures has experienced a trend of first rising and then suppressing, and gradually showed signs of moving towards the "N" shape trend, the finished material is far weaker than raw materials, corresponding to the biggest feature of this year is the continuous sluggish demand, the epidemic repeatedly superimposed on the political situation and the unstable factors of economic pressure, making this year's table demand almost lose seasonal fluctuations, almost stable in the same period of demand along the run; The strongest raw material is iron ore, which is mainly supported by the supply of less than expected and the continuous release of inventory pressure. "Last week, the overall price of black futures maintained an oscillating operation, the fluctuation was not large, with the recovery of steel mill profitability, steel mill resumption of production continued, but the trader mentality is generally still weak, and even with the rebound of steel prices in the early stage, there is a certain fear of heights, the transaction situation in the building materials market has weakened compared with the previous week, the spot price is relatively inferior to the futures performance, and the steel basis has weakened." Qiu Yihong, a researcher in the black department of Haitong Futures, said.
At present, from the perspective of the fundamentals of the black industry chain, what are the characteristics?
"Profits have been significantly repaired, but the profit margin on coils continues to weaken." Qiu Yihong said that the overall profits of steel companies in July were hit by an unprecedented impact. The profitability of 247 steel companies in the steel federation statistics hit a record low of 9.96% at the end of mid-July, but with the decline in raw material prices and the repair led by steel after the oversold rebound of the entire black commodity, the profit level of steel companies has also been quickly repaired, the profitability of steel companies has stabilized and rebounded, and the repair is expected to continue to strengthen, the profitability of 247 steel companies this week has risen to 54.55%, and it only took three weeks to achieve more than half of the profit level, and the immediate profit of The East China Rebar Blast Furnace even rose to the high level of the same period in the past four years. However, with the continuous inversion of the coil conch difference, the profit difference of the coil conch fell to a new low this year, which is the absolute low in the same period, which also reverses the recovery of hot coil production is not as strong as rebar, and this week's hot coil factory library has also appeared a slight accumulation phenomenon.
It is worth noting that the overall growth rate difference between production and marketing continues to be weak, and the inventory pressure has eased significantly. In July, in the context of the strengthening risk of global recession, the manufacturing boom level was once again impacted, returning to the boom-bust line, and the sub-indicators also fell across the board, but the PMI supply and demand gap narrowed from 2.4% to 1.3%, indicating that the manufacturing supply and demand pattern did not deteriorate significantly. From the perspective of high-frequency performance, although the current apparent consumption and transactions have not been able to break through the low range of the same period, the year-on-year gap has narrowed compared with the previous period, and the local regional table needs to show marginal warming signs, such as the apparent consumption of rebar in the northern region is basically the same as that of the same period last year, and the apparent consumption of hot coils in East China has maintained positive growth year-on-year. "Under the support of strong supply contraction and the slight recovery of local regional tables, rebar stocks have been destocked for 8 consecutive weeks, falling to the lowest level in the same period in the past four years, and as the gap between supply and demand continues to weaken, the inventory pressure is basically released for the most part, and the support for steel price rebound is gradually strengthened." Qiu Yihong said.
Tu Weihua also told reporters that at present, the price of threads in the off-season has increased significantly, and it has been better to cash in on the above benefits, but the pattern of thread supply and demand has not improved substantially. After the profit improvement, the construction steel mill resumed production actively, the weekly output of the thread the finest increased by 72,900 tons month-on-month, an increase for three consecutive weeks and the increase was significant, and the inventory decline was also continuing to narrow, showing that the low supply positive effect weakened at the margin, and it is necessary to pay attention to the lack of electricity in various places in the near future.
At the same time, there is no demand side to cooperate with the current round of steel prices, and the current thread demand is still weak. Last week's weekly table demand fell by 225,500 tons month-on-month, approaching the previous new low; and terminal procurement performance was a high decline, the average transaction volume last Sunday was only 148,500 tons, down 7.48% month-on-month, falling for two consecutive weeks; the current high-frequency demand indicators are still at the low level of the same period in recent years, showing that the characteristics of the thread off-season are still in place, weak demand is easy to bear the pressure on steel prices, relatively good or the market is expected to improve demand in the peak season, but the improvement in the context of the downward trend of real estate steel is also difficult to be optimistic.
"Multi-factor resonance drives the off-season steel prices to strengthen, but after the profit improvement of steel mills resumed production actively, supply rebounded as scheduled, and demand performance is relatively weak, thread supply and demand pattern has not substantially improved, high steel prices upward drive is not strong, relatively good is inventory, supply is at a low level, giving steel price support, supply and demand under the pattern of weak steel prices are expected to be weak operation, the future steel market fundamentals to break the situation need to improve demand, otherwise steel prices will still be under pressure again."
Can "Golden Nine Silver Ten" drive the demand for the future market?
Recently, after the coke enterprises have raised many times, downstream steel mills have accepted price increases. The reporter learned in the interview that the price increase was affected by many factors, one is that the downstream demand for finished products has stabilized, steel prices have risen, and steel mill profits have been gradually repaired, which has the basis for accepting price increases; Second, the capacity utilization rate of the blast furnace is improved, and at the same time, its own coke inventory is insufficient, and in the case of high demand and low inventory, it has the conditions for the rise in coke prices; Third, coke enterprises are generally in a state of loss, the loss inhibits the release of coke oven production capacity, and the supply of coke is somewhat insufficient, which further consolidates the foundation for the upward price of coke; Finally, in the case of price increases, speculative demand entered the market, and traders increased the number of port collections, exacerbating the tight supply and demand of coke.
"At present, coke supply and demand are recovering. Last week, sample coke oven operating rates rose 4% to 68.6%, and average daily coke production increased by 52,000 to 619,000 tonnes. The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in downstream steel mills increased by 1.62% to 81.22%, and the average daily output of molten iron increased by 4.36 to 2.1867 million tons. The southern high temperature season has gradually passed, the superimposed macro policy has gradually exerted force, the demand for finished products is slowly recovering, and the futures disk is also reflecting this phenomenon with oscillations. Du Peng, a coal and coke researcher at Zhonghui Futures, said.
Du Peng believes that the "golden nine silver ten", followed by the traditional peak season of demand for finished materials, although the performance of real estate is relatively weak, but there is a force of related large infrastructure, weakening the impact of real estate on the demand for building materials, and the demand for building materials will not be too weak in the end. On the other hand, the supply side continues to emphasize the reduction of crude steel production by 50 million tons, and the reduction of supply has also alleviated the contradiction between supply and demand of finished timber. Therefore, in the case of the upward trend of the building materials market, the coke market can still be expected.
In addition, the reporter found that the iron ore supply and demand pattern is weakening, which is directly reflected in the continuous increase in ore stocks, and the latest 45 Hong Kong iron ore stocks are 138.8616 million tons, an increase of 1.8218 million tons month-on-month, and the increase is still significant.
At this stage, after the improvement of profits, steel mills continue to resume production, ore terminal consumption continues to rise, the average daily output of molten iron and the daily consumption of imported ore in 247 sample steel mills of the Steel Union increased by 43,600 tons and 36,800 tons respectively, which has increased for two consecutive weeks, but the overall increase is limited, still at a low level during the year and the same period, and the improvement of ore demand is limited. In addition, steel mill profits are also contracting after the recent rise in raw material prices, the expectation of resuming production is weakening, coupled with steel mills citing low inventory production strategies, the demand side of the positive effect margin weakens, and we need to beware of reducing the impact of crude steel policies.
It is understood that the high level of mine shipments fell back, but the decline was not large, on the contrary, domestic arrivals continued to rise and reach a high level, and the subsequent shipments of miners will still increase seasonally, and the supply of superimposed minerals will be restored, and the supply of ore will show an increasing trend.
Tu Weihua believes that the market sentiment warms up and superimposes the resumption of steel mills, supporting the high level of ore prices, but at present, the domestic ore terminal demand improvement is limited, and the ore price recovery has been better to fulfill the expectation of resuming production, the demand effect is not strong, on the contrary, the ore supply is picking up, and the future increase is significant, the ore fundamentals will still be weak, the upward drive of ore prices is not strong, and it is not appropriate to chase more at a high level in operation.
Qiu Yihong believes that the future logic of the black system still maintains the overall view of "macro overriding the industry", and the sustainability and height of the black rebound will depend on the recovery intensity of domestic demand, but the phased rhythm will be adjusted by the supply-side production process. At present, there is still high inflation and economic downward pressure in the macroeconomy, and the Meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee stressed that "wide credit" is still the focus of efforts, and the implementation of measures related to stable growth will be the key driving force for the recovery of domestic demand. On the supply side, with the recovery of profits and the profitability of steel mills, the marginal strengthening of the supply drive, but the pattern of low inventory of raw materials has not changed significantly, the recovery of raw material inventories is limited, the year-on-year is still at a low level, and the scrap supply is still at a low level, so that the recent short-process electric furnace enterprise rebar production recovery is not as good as the long process, so the profit recovery of steel enterprises may or there be a certain offsetting effect on the supply, and it is difficult to continue profit repair.
From the overall level, this year there is still a supply ceiling and space determined by the reduction of crude steel production throughout the year, and there are also relevant measures for power curtailment or air pollution prevention and control in some areas, which will also play a certain role in inhibiting the large-scale resumption of production and the recovery rate of capacity utilization. "The trough period of supply and demand has basically passed, the gradual release of inventory pressure has reduced the pressure on steel prices to below neutral, in the context of low pressure on steel stocks, with the implementation of the transmission of loose policies to consumer demand, the trend of coordinated recovery of supply and demand self-underestimation in the later period will still be a positive force for the steel industry as a whole, so the overall performance of steel prices in the past one to two months is optimistic." Qiu Yihong said.
This article originated from Futures Daily
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