After a series of trips to Southeast Asia, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken moved on to Africa. On August 7, local time, a special plane from Blinken landed at Lanceria Airport in Johannesburg, South Africa. For a week from july to 12, the top U.S. diplomat will visit South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Dr. Congo), and Rwanda, during which a new version of the U.S. strategy for Africa will be announced.
This is Blinken's second visit to the continent after his visit to Africa last November. It is seen as a further move by the United States to bring African countries closer together and counter Russia and China's influence in Africa. However, given that African countries are more concerned about domestic issues such as economic recovery and will avoid taking sides among major powers, the United States' goal of co-opting may be frustrated.
Selected Three Kingdoms
South Africa was listed as the first stop on the trip. This was Blinken's second visit to Africa and his first visit as Secretary of State.
According to the itinerary announced by the US State Department, Brin is sure to hold a U.S.-South Africa Strategic Dialogue with South African Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Naledy Pandor on the 8th local time, which will focus on "common priorities", including COVID-19, infrastructure, trade and investment, and climate change. The South-China Strategic Dialogue began in 2010 but was suspended in 2015 during the presidency of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
At that time, Blinken will also release the "U.S. Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa," emphasizing that African countries are "geostrategic players and key partners" in today's most pressing issues. Launching this strategy is seen by the United States as an "important milestone" in its relations with African countries.
In the democratic Republic of the Congo, the second leg, Blinken will focus on escalating armed conflicts in the eastern part of the country and support initiatives aimed at promoting peace in the eastern region and the Great Lakes region. The topic will also touch on anti-corruption, trade and investment, and climate change. It is reported that the United States will promote the opening of tropical rainforests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) for oil and gas development.
In the last stop, Rwanda, Blinken will act as a "peacemaker" in an effort to ease tensions between Rwanda and its neighbor, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Dr. Congo accused Rwanda of supporting its rebel March 23 Movement (M23), but Rwanda denied it.
In addition to climate change, trade, public health, regional security and other issues, the food crisis in Africa caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is also an important issue of concern for Blinken's visit.
Molly Fei, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, previously said that every African country visited by Blinken plays an important role on the African continent and around the world.
A closer look will reveal that these three countries are indeed "important," and the United States has made a lot of efforts in its selection.
Let's start with South Africa. He Wenping, a researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that South Africa is an African weighted country, and it is also a member of the G20 and BRICS, and its comprehensive strength ranks among the best in Africa. It has great economic and geopolitical value for the United States.
Economically, as one of the three largest economies in Africa (the other two being Egypt and Nigeria), South Africa is the Largest Trading Partner of the United States in Africa and receives the most foreign direct investment from the United States.
Geopolitically, South Africa is the dominant regional power in the Southern African Development Community and plays a key role in AU-related decision-making.
Look again at the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to He Wenping, in southern Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has the largest land area and can be described as a treasure trove of African hearts and resources.
These include untapped mineral resources valued at $24 trillion, huge hydropower potential and rich biodiversity. The Democratic Republic of the Congo also owns 70% of the world's cobalt and 60% of coltan, and is the fourth largest copper producer in the world.
"The United States wants to build a new supply chain and needs raw materials. As a country with extremely rich mineral resources, the importance of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is prominent. He Wenping said.
Despite its limited small national market, Rwanda has seen the United States as an important player in the subregion and the African continent and at the international level by creating a favourable business environment and actively participating in peacekeeping missions.
Deep goals
In the eyes of public opinion, Blinken's careful selection of the target countries is closely related to the deep objectives of his visit.
Some commentators described Blinken's visit to Africa in the "new Cold War" as a further move by the United States to bring African countries closer together and counter Russia and China's influence in Africa.
Analysts have noted that an important background of Blinken's visit to Africa compared to last November's visit to Africa is the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and how long the conflict will last is still unknown. As the United States and the West increasingly isolate Russia, the risk of a "new Cold War" is indeed rising, and Africa is also at risk.
He Wenping pointed out that the United States is forming gangs around the world in an attempt to establish an international front to contain Russia. "Although African countries are not expected to impose sanctions on Russia, I hope that these countries can play a role in the UN vote to isolate Russia."
"The United States wants to win more support for the United States' position on Russia on a global scale, and Africa is also an important target for solicitation." Yang Wenjing, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said.
From the current point of view, most African countries remain neutral to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and do not want to be aesthetically obedient. In the case of South Africa, south Africa refused to condemn Russia after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and abstained in the UN vote on a resolution condemning Russia. Therefore, Blinken's trip will focus on South Africa.
Unfortunately, judging from the statements made by South Africa, It is difficult for Blinken to succeed. Steven Gruzder, head of the African Governance and Diplomacy Programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs, said: "I don't think Blinken's message will find a suitable audience in South Africa, which does not have to side with the United States in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. ”
French African political scientist Douglas Yates pointed out that compared with Blinken's first visit in November last year, which was aimed at repairing the US-Africa relations damaged by Trump, the purpose of the second visit to Africa is to form a stable alliance with South Africa, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to counter Russia's influence on Africa, especially to ensure that Russia's influence will not radiate further to the south of the African equator. A clear indication is that the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are not democracies in the eyes of the United States, and the reason why the United States is close to the two countries is precisely because of its military capabilities to counter Russia.
Judging from the timing, Blinken's trip to Africa is indeed delicate, just in front of and behind the Russian foreign minister. Late last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov concluded his visit to four African countries, Egypt, congo, Uganda and Ethiopia. Since then, the United States has stepped up its offensive against non-diplomacy. This began with permanent representative Greenfield's august 4-7 visit to Uganda, Ghana and Cape Verde, followed by the personal visit of the United States Secretary of State.
In addition to Russia, China is also seen as a key concern for U.S. diplomacy toward Africa. Last November, Blinken's first trip to Africa was seen as a focus on U.S.-China competition, determined to compete with China for influence in Africa. Now on his second visit to Africa, Blinken's briefcase will not forget to tuck this goal into.
Yang Wenjing pointed out that in the global strategic layout of the United States, compared with Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, Africa has not been an important plate. After the Biden administration came to power, it changed its tradition and increased investment in Africa, although it is not said to be aimed at China, but China is undoubtedly an important consideration. China has enhanced its economic influence in Africa through the Belt and Road Initiative, and at the same time has consistently adhered to the principles of non-interference in internal affairs and assistance without any political conditions at the political level, which has been welcomed by African countries. Even Russia, with its Soviet legacy, retained its political and security clout in Africa, while also maintaining food trade relations with African countries. By contrast, the United States is dwarfed by a long period of underinvestment in Africa. In the context of the United States provoking great power competition, geopolitical balance is one of the main lines running through the global strategy of the United States. As strategic competition with China intensifies, the United States will rely more heavily on Africa to hedge China's influence.
In the case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, the country's abundant reserves of cobalt and coltan are key raw materials for electronic equipment, aviation equipment and clean energy technologies. The New York Times sourly argues that Americans have failed to protect decades of diplomatic and financial investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the world's largest supplier of cobalt is now controlled by Chinese companies.
Analysts point out that the United States is reluctant to cede Africa's great resources to China, trying to get a piece of it, including accelerating investment in the DEMOCRATIC Republic of the Congo and other sectors.
Kite?
So how is the United States prepared to compete with Russia and China on the African continent?
The outside world is highly concerned about the new version of the strategy for Africa announced by General Blinken during his current visit. Alex Wiens, head of the Africa program at the Chatham Institute, a London-based think tank, said the strategy, which had been in the making for a year, would reveal important information on how the United States could contain Chinese and Russian influence on the continent.
However, in He Wenping's view, Blinken's planned "US Sub-Saharan Africa Strategy" is expected to follow the African policy outlined during his visit to Nigeria last year.
Last year, Blinken emphasized five pillars: strengthening trade, fighting the pandemic, responding to climate change, promoting democracy, and promoting peace and security.
In He's view, the United States may make commitments in various fields, including the introduction of clean energy cooperation under the framework of climate change. However, given the limited resources and capacity of the United States, it is not expected to come up with a real cooperation project, and many commitments may be empty promises.
Yang Wenjing believes that even if the United States launches a new version of the Africa strategy, the implementation will not be easy.
First, the economic cooperation agenda will face obstacles to underfunding and fragmented resources. America's strengths in Africa are political, diplomatic, and military influence, but economic influence is its weakness, and many economic plans and blueprints are just pie. For example, infrastructure plans, it is difficult to invest a lot of resources in the short term, unable to compete with China.
Second, African countries' foreign policies are mostly balanced and pragmatic, and they are reluctant to choose between major powers. Taking the values of democracy and human rights that the United States prefers to sell as an example, due to the historical entanglement between Africa and the West, many African countries have relatively independent value cognition and will not fully accept the value output of the United States. South Africa's failure to attend a U.S.-led democracy summit last year was evident.
Third, the uncertainty and lack of continuity of US domestic policies will also restrict the US policy objectives in Africa. The turmoil in US-Africa relations caused by Trump's administration has had a great impact on the psychology of African countries, and South Africa regards the United States as an "unreliable partner". For this reason, African countries do not put all their eggs in the basket of the United States.