Text/Qi Ran (From Jakarta, Indonesia)
Editing/Lacquer
In recent days, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has embarked on his first trip to East Asia since the outbreak of the epidemic, which has aroused great concern from the international community.
Jokowi was at the Jakarta airport before his trip to China
He first visited Beijing from July 25 to 26, the first foreign head of state china has received since the normalization of epidemic prevention and control. Some scholars predicted in advance that one of its main purposes was to invite Chinese leaders to the G20 summit.
Jokowi arrived in Beijing in a social media post
On the afternoon of the 26th, China and Indonesia issued the "Joint Press Statement on the Meeting of the Heads of State of the People's Republic of China and Indonesia." The statement pointed out that the two sides had a comprehensive and in-depth exchange of views on China-Indonesia relations and international and regional issues of common concern during the cordial and friendly talks, and reached a series of important consensuses. In particular, both sides believe that China-Indonesia relations have great strategic significance and far-reaching global impact, and agree on the general direction of jointly building a community with a shared future between China and Indonesia.
In terms of cooperation, the two heads of state affirmed the "four-wheel drive" bilateral relationship based on political, economic, cultural and maritime cooperation. At the same time, in addition to bilateral trade, the construction of the "Belt and Road" and the "Global Ocean Fulcrum", the two sides plan to expand specific cooperation in financing, agriculture, poverty reduction, food security, vaccine gene research and green development. China also expressed its support for the G20 summit hosted by Indonesia and the centrality of ASEAN in the regional architecture.
The Yawan high-speed railway under construction
This year's G20 summit will be held at the end of the year in Bali, Indonesia, and Indonesia will also hold the ASEAN presidency in 2023. Therefore, Jokowi's trip to East Asia is regarded by the Indonesian media as an important signal to drive economic recovery and actively respond to the global crisis.
Before the president's visit, two key officials in Indonesia's cabinet, Luhut, coordinating minister for oceans and investment, and Foreign Minister Retno, arrived in Beijing ahead of schedule to prepare. Jokowi's delegation also included Secretary of State Platicano and Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Eric Tohill and many other important officials.
In April 2022, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Oceanography and Investment Luhut visited Musk and Tesla factories in the United States
After visiting China, Jokowi will continue to visit Japan and South Korea on July 27-28. According to Indonesian media reports, Jokowi will discuss economic and trade cooperation, investment and infrastructure construction with Japan and South Korea. In this regard, Indonesia and Japan and South Korea have been discussing for a long time. Just as Jokowi began a diplomatic meeting in Beijing, Indonesia's Minister of Public Works and Housing, Basuki, also left for Seoul to hold talks with South Korean Environment Minister Jeong Ho-jin, focusing on South Korea-Indonesia cooperation projects under construction of Indonesia's new capital.
Jokowi's new diplomatic moment
This year, Jokowi's Indonesian government has entered an intensive diplomatic moment. Various ministerial meetings, side meetings, youth meetings, and urban development conferences around the G20 were held one after another in Indonesia.
In Jakarta, summit posters with the words "Recover together, recover stronger" can be seen everywhere. The city centre is full of construction enclosures and construction vehicles, and public transportation and urban appearance improvement works are being carried out for the summit. At the end of June, Jokowi had just led a delegation to the G7 meeting in Germany, followed by successive visits to Kiev in Ukraine and Moscow in Russia, conveying messages between Zelenskiy and Putin in a gesture of peaceful diplomacy.
On June 29, 2022, Jokowi met with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy in Kiev, Ukraine
For Jokowi, such intensive diplomatic itineraries today were extremely uncommon in his previous terms. Dio Tobing, a diplomat scholar at Gachamada University in Indonesia, pointed out that in Indonesia, Jokowi has long been criticized for lack of diplomatic action and lack of enthusiasm on the international stage. For example, before 2020, Jokowi had not delivered a keynote address to the United Nations General Assembly. At other international conferences, he often speaks on his behalf as the Vice-President in charge of diplomacy.
In contrast, he is more focused on domestic affairs, especially during his first term from 2014 to 2019. Hal Hill, an Indonesian studies scholar at the Australian National University, pointed out that although Indonesia is a pivotal power in ASEAN, the Jokowi government lacks a strong will to "stand up and lead ASEAN". This has in common with his pragmatic, middle-of-the-road approach to governance.
But in his second term, Jokowi's government showed a change in style, both in domestic and foreign affairs.
After being elected president for the second time in 2019, Jokowi formally proposed a plan to move the capital from Jakarta on the island of Java, in accordance with the ideals of Indonesia's first president, Sukarno, and build a new capital, Nusantara, thousands of kilometers away on the island of Kalimantan.
In March 2022, Jokowi inspected Indonesia's new capital under construction
Since then, Jokowi's government has launched a series of controversial reforms, such as the passage of the Comprehensive Employment Creation Law in 2020 amid criticism from labor organizations and environmental groups, which has significantly adjusted Indonesia's industrial relations, capital access, central-land relations and other fields.
All this coincides with a series of geopolitical and international changes. Since the beginning of the epidemic, more events have strongly impacted the development prospects of Indonesia and the ASEAN region in which it is located, such as last year's myanmar crisis and this year's Ukraine crisis.
On February 1, 2021, the Burmese military launched a coup d'état to seize power, causing ASEAN to encounter a serious internal crisis – how to stabilize the situation in Myanmar and whether it can deal with the Myanmar issue has become a touchstone for ASEAN's leadership and problem-solving ability. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno has been cautiously engaged in shuttle diplomacy in an attempt to mediate, but with poor success. The deteriorating situation in Myanmar and the emergence of more armed conflicts will push ASEAN, which has been trying to mediate and stabilize the situation, and Indonesia, which has been trying to mediate and stabilize the situation, into an even more difficult situation.
A year later, Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine, triggering a more serious global geopolitical and economic shock. As the fighting continues, the vision of a global economic recovery is shattered. Combined with high inflation in the United States and Europe, coupled with the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes, the previously generous foreign and credit environment in Southeast Asian countries is reversing. Although Indonesia is one of the healthier economies with a smaller debt burden in ASEAN, the precedent of the 1998 Asian financial crisis remains in sight. "We're lucky that we don't have too serious economic problems, but everyone is still worried." Indonesian journalist Wella commented to Phoenix Weekly.
For Indonesians, the more immediate impact is the rise in the price of food and energy. At the beginning of this year, with the spread of war in Russia and Ukraine, Indonesia's wheat and flour supply was under pressure. Palm oil, one of Indonesia's most important products, has soared because of exports of Ukrainian sunflower oil. At one point, the Indonesian government suspended palm oil exports in April, exacerbating market judgments about the crisis.
The risks of war, refugees, economic downturn and even recession are plaguing emerging Southeast Asian economies, including Indonesia. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lowered its economic growth forecast for ASEAN countries in 2023 from 5.9% to 5.1%, reflecting a less optimistic attitude.
"[The president's diplomatic activities] are at a very challenging and difficult time because of geopolitical tensions." Indonesian Finance Minister Indravati said at a news conference on July 24.
On June 30, 2022, Jokowi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow
The G20 summit to be held in Bali at the end of this year has also become a huge knot in the Jokowi government. Previously, people were discussing whether Russian President Vladimir Putin could attend the summit, and once present, Russia and the West would turn the summit into a "battlefield" of contention. But now, there is more concern about whether the value of the G20 mechanism itself will be diminished by geopolitical dilemmas. Pradumna B. Rana, a researcher at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, predicted pessimistically that a joint statement would not be possible at this year's summit due to the many differences between countries.
Indonesia's crisis and opportunity
During Jokowi's time, Indonesia placed increasing emphasis on attracting investment, infrastructure, human resources and education, while being cautious and protectionist in international trade. The Australian scholar Eve Warburton has called the above model of Jokowi's era "Indonesian version of developmentism".
Today, this development model, along with Indonesia's own natural endowments, has the opportunity to transform into a new impetus for development. As climate change and energy conservation and emission reduction gradually become the core issues of concern to all countries, Indonesia is likely to become a key node in the future new energy industry chain - the electric vehicle industry needs nickel as a key raw material for batteries, and Indonesia has the world's largest nickel reserve.
In recent years, Jokowi's government has tried to use this as an opportunity to attract entire industrial chains, including ore smelting, metal manufacturing, battery and electric vehicle production, into Indonesia by banning nickel ore exports and encouraging investment to set up factories. In May this year, when Jokowi visited the United States, he met with Tesla President Musk to discuss the idea of setting up a factory in Indonesia and introducing an industrial chain.
Although the development of mining, smelting, battery and manufacturing in Indonesia has been accompanied by social and environmental controversies, the Attitude of the Jokowi government towards seizing the opportunity to introduce and upgrade manufacturing can be said to be very firm.
With its important position and geopolitical key role in the future clean energy and even industrial chain, Indonesia is also trying to gain more say in the us-led global system.
In 2021, Indonesia seeks to redefine the Indo-Pacific and ASEAN regional hubs by leading the ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook (AOIP). The Outlook begins by stating that the geographical scope of the Indo-Pacific is "Asia, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean region", and that "Southeast Asia is at the center of these dynamic regions, an important gateway and gateway to these regions", establishing itself as the "gatekeeper" of the region.
In June, Jokowi attended the Group of Seven (G7) Summit; In July, Indonesian representatives participated in state-led discussions on global supply chains — diplomatic activities that under Jokowi wanted to be one of the future international rule-makers. Geopolitical tensions have made Indonesia a regional power that all parties rely on and rely on, which in turn gives it more space for diplomatic activities.
In 2014, in Indonesia, which is full of old military and bureaucratic and family politics, Jokowi was elected president with a solid and moderate image of being from the grassroots. Eight years later, the latest poll data shows that people's satisfaction with Jokowi's administration is high, and it still exceeds 60%.
In terms of Indonesia's complex political structure, Jokowi is a figure who can balance the forces of all sides and maintain political stability. Even before that, Indonesian society has discussed whether Jokowi will consider opening a third presidential term. But he said he would not consider that possibility. This means that Indonesia will usher in a key political node in 2024.
Jokowi, right, attends the event with prime candidate for the party's next presidential term, Central Java Governor Pranovo
With only two years left in his term, Jokowi is eager to leave his own political legacy – and both plans for a new capital and infrastructure and manufacturing ambitions will take more time and a stable political environment to materialize. Therefore, this year's G20 summit is not only an opportunity to shape the image of the country, but also to continue to consolidate and promote Indonesia's current development model and path in a time of global crisis, and to further promote it on the international stage.
However, the other side of the opportunity is the crisis, and for the Jokowi government, the tests and difficulties in the future are still huge.