The EU finally agreed to abandon the goal of "resisting the cold winter", US media: this unity can not warm every household

【Text/Observer Network Wang Mochu】

In response to the risk of disruption of Nord Stream 1 gas supplies in Russia, the European Union last week developed an emergency plan proposing that member states reduce their gas consumption by 15 percent between August 2022 and March 2023 to "save up 45 billion cubic meters of gas for the winter." However, in the negotiations on the 25th, countries have moved out various exemption reasons for their own solar terms.

In the latest development yesterday (26th), the EU countries successfully reached an agreement, but the content of the agreement was "shrunk". According to the US "Politician" news website, the final overall solar term target may be closer to 10%, rather than the previous widely publicized 15%. According to the EU's assessment, eventually countries may reach the target of 30 billion cubic meters of solar energy.

It is worth noting that this value is only the minimum target set by the EU when it proposed the "emergency plan" on the 20th, abandoning the highest goal of "resisting winter".

And because the agreement includes a variety of exemptions, the goal of solar terms falls "unequally" on countries. The U.S. "Politician" news website bluntly said that this is an agreement that contains a smorgasbord of carve-outs and exemptions, and the warmth of solidarity on the 26th alone is not enough to warm every household in the winter.

Screenshot of Czech Republic Twitter under the eu's rotating presidency

The EU countries reached a consensus on the "15% solar terms" agreement, which is intercepted from the EU's official website

The latest agreement shows a "compromise" between the parties. Several European countries, including Hungary, Portugal, Spain and Greece, oppose the EU's plan to "voluntarily cut" natural gas, but only Hungary voted against it. But that doesn't change much, because the deal can be passed with the consent of 15 EU member states, and Hungary's vote against it "doesn't hurt the big picture.".

For one of the focal points of the negotiations on the 25th local time, that is, whether to give the European Commission the power to enforce to ensure that countries meet their corresponding targets of reducing their natural gas consumption, countries have reached an agreement.

According to the documents published by the EU, member states agreed to strengthen the conditions for activating this enforcement mechanism, i.e. if there is a serious gas shortage, or a significant risk of particularly high gas demand, or if 5 or more member states have announced an alert at the national level, the Committee should make a recommendation to activate the mechanism.

However, this is not the focus of the agreement content. According to a number of foreign media reports, the final agreement listed a long list of exemptions to "reflect the special situation of member states and ensure that natural gas emission reductions can effectively improve the security of supply in the EU".

Documents published by the European Union show that exemptions may be granted in the following circumstances:

Members that do not have gas networks connected to other member countries are exempt from mandatory gas cuts, because even if they save gas, they will not be able to benefit other members because there are no gas pipelines. Similarly, member states whose grids are not synchronized with The European power system and rely heavily on natural gas for power generation are exempted to avoid the risk of a power supply crisis.

If a Member State has limited connectivity with other Member States and can demonstrate that its connectivity export capacity or that its domestic LNG infrastructure is adequately used to re-transmit natural gas to other Member States, then a Member State may apply for a derogation to meet its demand reduction obligations.

Member States can also apply for a reduction if they exceed their targets for filling gas storage, if they rely heavily on natural gas as a feedstock for key industries, or if their gas consumption has increased by at least 8 per cent over the past five years compared to the average of the past five years.

Consistent with previous predictions by some foreign media, various exemptions and exceptions, including those stipulated, have led to the EU's solar terms falling "not equally" on member states. Accordingly, some countries will be completely exempted from the solar term obligation, and some countries can be reduced to a target amount of 7% or less.

Island nations such as Ireland, Malta and Cyprus will reportedly be exempt from mandatory gas cut targets because even the solar terms will not benefit other countries. In response, Miriam Dalli, Malta's energy minister, said that "the agreement reflects the different energy situations of countries" and said that "we managed to convey a strong message of solidarity".

Greece, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as other countries that rely heavily on natural gas for electricity generation, may, under exemptions, not have to cut gas use if domestic energy security is endangered.

Spain and Portugal are also forecast to qualify for the exemption, as their gas export capacity is so limited that they could end up being allocated only 7 percent of their gas cut obligations.

More than a dozen countries with relatively abundant gas reserves, such as Germany and Italy, are also likely to receive quota reductions under the rules, as they can exceed the EU gas storage target by August.

Italy's ecology transition minister, Roberto Cingolani, said the country's mandatory gas conservation target would be closer to 7 percent instead of 15 percent, once the country's gas cuts compared to previous years were taken into account.

The U.S. "Politician" news website estimates that under such an exemption, the final figure may be closer to 10%, than the 15% of the previous publicity. However, the energy ministers of various countries said that the debate over the calculations was irrelevant because "the unity of the European Union" had been reflected in the consultations.

Commenting on the final agreement, Spain's Minister of Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, said, "I believe this has greater political value, even if it means that we can only reach the goal of saving 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas, but it is better than forcing countries to achieve 45 billion cubic meters of gas savings.". Ribera added, "Perfection in Excel tables is non-existent. ”

German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said a similar attitude, saying that "today's agreement is a strong signal to Russia that Europe will not be divided." But when asked if the solar terms target was sufficient, Hubbeck added, "No, because some countries are exempt ... I haven't seen the exact calculations we'll arrive at yet, but the amount will be smaller."

But many have also expressed concern about the agreement. According to Reuters, some EU diplomats believe the final rule could be diluted too much to really save gas in the winter.

U.S. "politician" news sites have bluntly stated that the agreement, which contains a smorgasbord of carve-outs and exemptions, may not actually succeed in achieving its original goals.

Two EU officials interviewed by "politicians" said that according to the EU's assessment, even if each country took advantage of political exemptions, the savings of natural gas would exceed 30 billion cubic meters. But how much is that exactly? Faced with questions from "politicians", EU officials were unable to give further answers.

"It's hard to say because we haven't seen any calculations," said an EU diplomat. "The commission assessed that we would achieve 30 billion cubic meters of emission reductions, but no one knew and no one calculated it," said a second EU diplomat.

It is worth noting that saving 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas is only the minimum target set by the European Union when it proposed the "emergency plan" on the 20th, which can help survive an "ordinary winter". For the goal of "saving 45 billion cubic meters of gas and surviving the cold winter", this time it was not achieved.

Cut from the EU document, its opening speech of the "15% solar terms safe winter" plan issued on the 20th

Based on Gazprom's second cut of Nord Stream-1 gas transmissions by half to 20% of the design capacity on the 25th, Ireland's environment minister Eamon Ryan is also worried that the 15% target is not enough to cope with the situation.

However, whether the current 30 billion cubic meters of energy saving target can be completed is still unknown. Previously, EU countries have so far cut their total gas use by only 5 percent despite a reduction in Gas supply from Russia and a spike in energy prices in Europe for months.

The US "politician" news website said that one thing is clear: the warmth and unity of the 26th alone is not enough to warm every household in the winter.

An EU diplomat told the U.S. "politician" news site that "if it doesn't smell like unity and doesn't look like unity, it may not be unity."

This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.