Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi again went to the presidential palace to present his resignation.
A week ago, Draghi offered his resignation after senators from the Five Star Movement, a key party in the ruling coalition, did not participate in a vote of confidence in an aid package. Italian President Mattarella refused to accept it, urging him to reconsider. Subsequently, Draghi requested a vote of confidence in his government in both houses of Senate.
In fact, before indicating his willingness to resign, Draghi had just "successfully passed the barrier". On July 20, local time, the Italian Senate passed a vote of confidence in the Draghi government by 95 votes in favor and 38 votes against. But the absence of key parties casts a shadow over the successful Draghi administration that broke through the Senate.
CNBC pointed out that once Draghi officially resigned, this may pave the way for future elections, and Italy enters a new stage of political uncertainty.
Draghi again submitted his resignation
Although Draghi won a vote of confidence in the Senate, Draghi chose to resign.
A week ago, Draghi announced his resignation at a cabinet meeting after believing that the ruling coalition that supported the formation of the current government no longer existed, but Mattarella refused to accept his resignation and demanded a parliamentary vote to determine whether the government had a majority.
On July 20, local time, Draghi first delivered a speech to the Senate, saying that his resignation was a "painful and legitimate choice." He detailed the achievements of the current Government and stressed that the only way to keep the Government moving forward was to rebuild the Compact. "The desire for stability compels all of us to decide whether it is possible to recreate the conditions for effective government governance."
After the report, Draghi asked the Senate and the House of Representatives to vote of confidence in the government. According to the arrangement, the Senate will hold a vote of confidence on the same day, and the House will vote on the afternoon of July 21, local time.
On July 20, 2022, local time, the Italian Senate in Rome, Italy, is undergoing a vote of confidence. Figure/IC photo
That night, the Senate voted 95 in favor and 38 against the draghi government, but the absence of key parties undermined the significance of the vote.
The contradictions between the ruling coalitions seem to have become bigger. MPs from the Italian Union, Force Italia and The Five Star Movement did not participate in the Senate vote of confidence that night.
The Alliance and Force Italia want Draghi to commit to a new government with new policy priorities without the Five Star Movement, but this runs counter to Draghi's demand that the current government's governance plan not be interrupted and that the composition of the current government be greatly adjusted. The Five Star Movement party argues that Draghi has not solved their core problems. All three key parties have not chosen to support Draghi for their own reasons.
Reuters noted that dozens of senators refused to vote, leaving Draghi's government in a bind, and the boycott could destabilize Italy's relative stability for months.
"Politics has failed." Italian Foreign Minister Di Maio said. He has repeatedly called on the ruling coalition to unite in support of Draghi, saying that "the future of the Italians is at stake, and the consequences of this tragic decision will go down in history." ”
Controversial aid bill
The immediate trigger for the chaos was a €26 billion aid bill proposed by draghi's government. The bill was originally intended to help households and businesses deal with Italy's high domestic energy prices and allow Rome to build large waste incinerators to treat municipal waste.
Before the bill could work, it unexpectedly upset Italy's politics.
On July 14, local time, the Italian Senate held a vote of confidence. According to the British "Guardian" report, although the bill was finally passed by a margin of 172 votes in favor and 39 votes against, the "Five Star Movement" party believed that the bill was insufficiently aided, and opposed the construction of waste incinerator projects on the grounds of environmental protection, and did not participate in the vote.
It seems that the "Five Star Movement" party fell out with Draghi because of a bill, but in fact, the two have been at odds for a long time. Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University, told the Beijing News that since the joint administration in February last year, the "Five Star Movement" party has been at odds with Draghi on policy views related to universal basic income, garbage disposal, labor security, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Former Italian prime minister and current leader of the Five Star Movement, Conte, has also criticized Draghi's response to the economic crisis.
Infographic: Former Italian Prime Minister and current Leader of the Five Star Movement Party Conte (left) and Italian Foreign Minister Di Maio (right). Figure/IC photo
In addition, the Five Star Movement itself is experiencing a crisis. Last month, DiMayo was divided over Ukraine with the Five Star Movement, leading some of its personnel to set up a separate portal, and the Five Star Movement lost its position as the largest party in the House of Representatives. Subsequently, the "Five Star Movement" party also performed poorly in local elections, and the polls continued to decline. NPR noted that the Five Star Movement party is currently in chaos, with hardline lawmakers who are skeptical about joining Draghi's government starting to complain that their interests are being ignored.
Eventually, the Five Star Movement, which for weeks had threatened to leave the ruling coalition, stormed the aid package. Ding Chun pointed out that this move may also be the election strategy of the "Five Star Movement" party, which is intended to distance itself from the policies and measures of the Draghi government to show that it is close to the people, so as to win over fans and gain more public support.
As a key governing partner of Draghi's government, the absence of the Five Star Movement party has caused Draghi to lose confidence in the ruling coalition. He believed that the trust that underpinned the ruling coalition was gone, and submitted his resignation to Mattarella.
"Super Mario" in power for a year and a half
Draghi, 74, has been Italy's prime minister for nearly 18 months.
In February 2021, dissatisfied with the performance of then-Italian Prime Minister Conte in power, former Prime Minister Renzi's Vital Party of Italy withdrew from the ruling coalition, resulting in the ruling coalition losing its absolute majority in the Senate, Conte resigned as prime minister, and Mattarella then authorized Draghi to form a new Italian government.
At that time, Draghi was considered the best candidate for the prime minister. An economist by training, he was a former Governor of the Bank of Italy and president of the European Central Bank from 2011 to 2019. He was dubbed "Super Mario" by the media for his key role in the fight against the eurozone crisis.
"Draghi is a technocrat, but has a good political mind, strong bipartisan support, and good relations with all walks of life in Brussels and Europe, and if there's one person who can bridge Italy's serious political divides, it's Draghi." Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Leta said.
On February 12, 2021, local time, In Rome, Italy, Prime Minister Draghi of the new Italian government spoke to the media. Figure/IC photo
Initially, Draghi did rally the political scene rarely, winning widespread support from both the left and the right, and forming a "rainbow-style" cabinet that covered many political parties in parliament and spanned a wide range of political genealogies. Ding Chun pointed out that during Draghi's administration, he promoted domestic vaccination, and also promoted the revival of Italy's domestic economy with a tough fiscal policy attitude, and used his reputation to help Italy receive nearly 200 billion euros from the EU's recovery fund, making Italy the country with the largest allocation from the EU recovery fund during the epidemic.
But this unity did not last long. The Washington Post noted that as inflation, record droughts, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict replaced italy's domestic fears about the coronavirus pandemic, some parties thought they might perform better in early elections, leading to a faltering coalition.
Indeed, the laxity of the ruling coalition is not unpredictable. Ding Chun said that the Draghi government is the product of a temporary compromise between various political forces, and the political demands of the parties in the ruling coalition are very different, and they cannot give the government consistent strong support.
Previously, Draghi repeatedly stressed that he would not lead a government without the support of the Five Star Movement, "from the inaugural speech, I have always stressed that this government can only continue to move forward in the prospect of clear implementation of government projects." ”
After the Five Star Movement party's absentee vote, Draghi immediately chose to resign. Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, said that on the one hand, when the government is not sure whether it can continue to have the support of the majority, seeking a vote of confidence is Italy's usual way of resolving the political crisis. On the other hand, Draghi initially proposed his resignation precisely in the hope of confirming whether the parliament and various parties always had a high level of support for him through procedures such as a vote of confidence, and once the future policy is difficult to implement due to political reasons, the responsibility will be blamed on Draghi and his government, so he also wants to divide the responsibilities in advance.
Draghi's willingness to resign has raised concerns about political instability in all sectors of society. According to the BBC, there have been a number of protests in Italy asking Draghi to stay in office. Polls show that a majority of Italians agree with this view. About a thousand mayors and 250 business and union leaders support Draghi. Ratings agency Fitch has even warned that if Draghi resigns, future reforms in Italy will become more difficult.
Volatile Italian politics
In detail, Draghi is already italy's sixth prime minister in a decade.
"In the whirlwind of Italian politics, the change of leaders is dizzying." According to the Italian local media "The Local", in the past 75 years, an average of 14 months have to change a prime minister.
Frequent changes in prime ministers are only superficial, behind which are deeper historical and political reasons. The British media "The Week" pointed out that after experiencing the rule of Italian dictator Mussolini, Italy has always wanted to ensure that similar things do not happen again, so it maintains the tradition of encouraging coalition government.
According to The Economist, proportional representation in Italian elections has promoted the diversification of political parties, and the revised electoral law has also promoted the formation of a multi-party ruling coalition.
Italy's electoral system, however, did not prevent the multiparty coalition from collapsing after the vote. Cui Hongjian pointed out that the low threshold for the formation of political parties, coupled with the low threshold for political parties to participate in parliament, has formed the diversification of political parties in Italy. But the multi-party system has also led to a certain decline in the stability of the government, and once a few political parties withdraw their support for policies or government grievances, the government will soon fall into a crisis of inability.
Infographic: Former Italian Prime Minister Renzi. Figure/IC photo
In the meantime, there are also attempts to change the problem of political instability in Italy. In December 2016, former Italian Prime Minister Renzi pushed For Italy to hold a referendum on constitutional changes, mainly involving constitutional reforms, including weakening the power of the Senate, such as reducing the number of seats, abolishing universal suffrage for senators, and transferring some decision-making power of local governments to the central government, Xinhua reported.
Renzi has repeatedly stressed that the purpose of the constitutional amendment is to streamline institutions, save money, and ensure the government's ability to govern, which is conducive to the implementation of the necessary reform measures. But opponents say the constitutional amendment undermines the checks and balances of power and gives the government too much power.
The referendum ended with the defeat of constitutional amendments and renzi's resignation. Cui Hongjian analyzed that the Italian people may think that although the current administrative efficiency is low and the ruling coalition is fragile, the rights of public opinion are greater, so they refuse to amend the constitution.
Or advance to this fall's elections
Before Draghi officially announced the resubmission of his resignation, a number of foreign media had already made a preview of his final decision. "As things stand, Draghi doesn't seem to have any choice but to submit his resignation." The U.S. political news site Politico wrote.
Once Draghi officially resigned, the next choice fell on the president. Mattarella will decide whether to convene the parties to re-appoint the Prime Minister or to hold parliamentary elections in advance. Cui Hongjian pointed out that the election of a new person to replace Draghi requires long consultations and compromises between Italian political parties, and if this road does not work, then only early elections are left in Italy.
Parliamentary elections, which were scheduled for spring 2023, could be advanced to this fall. Reuters noted that Italy has not held autumn elections since World War II, as autumn is usually the time for parliament to draft and approve the next year's budget.
Early elections could plunge Italy into months of turmoil. CCTV News pointed out that the early election will make it difficult for Italy to respond to many policy issues in a timely and effective manner before the emergence of a new government. Italy may also not be able to sign a new gas trading contract before the winter, which will make the energy shortage even worse. The change of government could also affect Italy's implementation of domestic reforms with the EU, thereby preventing the country from receiving eu recovery funding.
Current polls show that if an early election is held, the conservative camp is expected to win more. Ding Chun pointed out that the election may give center-right and right-wing parties a chance to come to power, but many supporters of Italy's right-wing parties are skeptical of the EU. If the right-wing parties come to power, Italy's relations with the EU may cool down, and the fluctuations in Italy's political situation will also affect the EU integration process.
In addition, from an economic point of view, Bloomberg pointed out that for the eurozone, a new round of political turmoil in Italy comes at a complicated time, and people are increasingly worried about the impending recession. "Italy could have a storm." The European Commission's economic commissioner, Paolo Gentiloni, said.
The Draghi government has begun to promote business recovery by digitizing government services and simplifying the cumbersome legal system. In addition, the Government intends to increase the length of day-care so that more women can enter the labour market. Still, the Washington Post notes that if replaced by a government less determined about reform, markets could begin to doubt Italy's future economic growth prospects.
Beijing News reporter Luan Ruoxi
Edited by Bai Shuang Proofreader Li Lijun