Source: Patch One Knife
When Australia bluntly said "good news" for China to lift the ban on coal imports to Australia; When the first batch of iron ore settled in renminbi arrived in China and the Australian business community welcomed the change, a contrary signal was also coming.
Australian Defense Secretary Mars recently visited the United States and began a four-day visit.
During this visit, Mars frequently sent out the message that after the new Australian government took office, the Australian official "rarely tough on China".
Mars promised to "strengthen Australia's military power" to avoid a "catastrophic deterrence failure" in the Indo-Pacific.
On the one hand, it also called on the United States to expand its military presence in the "Indo-Pacific region" and play a "joint effort to contain China."
In particular, in Mars's "closed-door talks" with U.S. Defense Secretary Austin, the two sides allegedly reached a strategy document in which China was mentioned six times, saying that "China poses major challenges to the United States and Australia." In order to form a deeper military bond with the United States, Australia may have made some "private commitments" with the United States.
Some former Australian officials have questioned that Australia has surrendered sovereignty and entrusted its most critical national responsibility, the decision to fight the independence war, to the United States.
01
Australians can't afford to eat lettuce.
According to the latest data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, the highest growth rate since 2001.
Australia's core inflation cut-off average for the second quarter is likely to record its fastest rise in more than 30 years. Inflation in Australia could reach 7% by the end of the year.
In the face of the tough economic situation, there is some good news for the Australian economy.
On the 17th, Australian Finance Minister Chalmers said that China's coal ban on Australia may be lifted, which is good news for Australian exporters.
Chalmers also said he hopes this loosening will be extended to other products.
Earlier, Australian mining giant BHP Billiton issued a statement that the Victoria cargo ship carrying iron ore from the port of Helan in Western Australia recently arrived at Rizhao Port, China's main iron ore trading port, two weeks after departing.
After the latest shipment of iron ore arrived at Chinese ports, BHP Billiton's Shanghai branch was officially established, marking the century-old giant's expansion of its business in China.
It is worth mentioning that this is also the first batch of iron ore settled in RMB. Experts said the launch of the RMB iron ore trade marks an important step towards the Chinese market as a global mining giant.
The recovery of China-Australia economic and trade relations is undoubtedly positive for Australia, which is suffering from inflation, and the Australian business community has welcomed this change very much, and even some Australian media have proposed that Australia should cancel the complaint of the WTO on China's trade sanctions in the World Trade Organization.
China is Australia's largest trading partner. According to the data, the bilateral trade volume in 2021 reached 231.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 35.1% year-on-year, and China's imports from Australia rose by 40.6% year-on-year to 164.8 billion US dollars.
In May this year, Australia held a federal election, the Labor government came to power and began to engage with China, bilateral relations from deep freezing, to see a glimmer of light, there are some signs of thawing and warming up:
After Albanese's victory, the Chinese leader sent a congratulatory message to him, and Afghanistan replied with a letter of thanks, which was regarded as a precursor to the "warming" of bilateral relations;
On June 12, the Chinese and Australian defence ministers held one-on-one talks during their participation in the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue, breaking the record of "zero contact" between the two countries since January 2020, australian defense minister Mars said that the two sides had "full and frank exchanges", calling the meeting a "key first step" and that the "door has been opened" to improve China-Australia relations;
On June 30, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng met with Australian Ambassador to China Fu Guanhan, and the two sides exchanged in-depth views on China-Australia relations, which Australian media commented as a "hopeful signal" and "another step forward for the Labor Party to manage complex diplomatic relations";
On July 8, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Australian Foreign Minister Huang Yingxian met in Bali during a meeting of G20 foreign ministers, and Huang Yingxian said that China and Australia are "indeed different" and bilateral relations "have challenges", but Australia is trying to handle bilateral relations through a calm manner, and "engagement" is the only way to stabilize China-Australia relations.
But at the same time, some media have described Australia as seemingly adopting a "one step back, two steps further" repair strategy in its relations with China.
In a June 28 interview, Albanese raised the Taiwan Strait issue, saying that if Beijing attacked Taiwan by force, it could suffer the same defeat as Russia.
On July 11, Albanese said he would not respond to the four so-called demands made by China for Australia to repair relations after the recent meeting between The Chinese and Foreign Ministers, stressing that it would only respond to Australia's national interests.
In an interview with local television on July 14, Albanese said that despite the solomon islands' earlier security agreement with China, he was "very confident" that there would be no Chinese military bases in the Solomon Islands.
02
Some of the words made by Australian Defense Minister Mars during a visit to the United States not long ago may be a "rare tough signal" from Australia to China after the new government took office.
It was Mars's first flight to the United States since taking office. Earlier on July 11, Mars's first visit to the United States was to lay a wreath at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia, kicking off his four-day visit.
In his first speech in Washington, Mars said, "Today, there is no more important partner for Australia than the United States, according to The Australian. The U.S.-Australia alliance has become a cornerstone of Australia's foreign and security policy. ”
Look at this "hugging thigh", it is also too public and too meaty.
Mars also acknowledged that the alliance with the United States provided Australia with capabilities, technology and intelligence advantages that could not be acquired or developed on its own. He also warned that "the strategic environment will become more severe." In an ever-changing strategic environment, the power of this enduring partnership is more important than ever. ”
The reason for this "becoming more severe" refers to the so-called "expansion of China's military threat in the Asia-Pacific region."
Mars also made an important statement, that is, a commitment to "increase Australia's military power" to avoid a "catastrophic deterrence failure" in the Indo-Pacific region. And assured the United States that the new Labor government would be fully committed to a closer partnership with Washington.
"Catastrophic deterrence failure", in this case, refers to who failed to deter? Obviously, it is still pointing to China.
Mars said that the new Labor government wants to establish closer ties with the United States, which is clearly a sign of loyalty to "big brother". Hopefully, the United States will continue to believe in Australia, and that the new administration will have no difference in its stance toward the United States from that of the previous Morrison administration.
The Australian also noted Mars' pledge to play a more active role in "repulsing Chinese influence in the Pacific" because "China has sought to develop economic and security alliances with island nations in the Pacific."
As can be seen from Mars's speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank, the core message is to call on the United States to expand its military presence in the "Indo-Pacific region" and to "work together to contain China."
To achieve this goal, the Australian side believes that it must build a more effective military force that can deter China.
Canberra is also considering whether its new nuclear-powered submarines will choose a British design or an American design — the result of the U.S.-Uk-Australia Trilateral Security Agreement signed by the previous Morrison administration. Mars fully supports this defense alliance, and believes that "the core of deterrence is underwater capability."
Mars also described China's military development as "what we have seen since the end of World War II ... Largest". He also said that due to "intensified competition between great powers," the military build-up in the Indo-Pacific region was "unprecedented since World War II."
The highlight of Mars's visit to the United States was a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Austin. Allegedly, the talks were closed-door, with the two sides issuing public statements after the meeting. But the mystery of the talks has also sparked a lot of speculation.
Both Austin and Mars declared after the meeting that the U.S.-Australia alliance was "unbreakable." They viewed the strategy document reached not only as an "Indo-Pacific Agreement" but also as "an important partnership designed to actively safeguard the interests of the United States and Australia." This document is clearly targeted and directed.
Some media have revealed that the meeting between the US and Australian defense ministers at the Pentagon also announced the next strategic goals of the United States and Australia, which is very worthy of attention. The strategy paper is not much, but china is mentioned six times. It is reasonable to say that the strategic goals of the United States and Australia should not be related to China, but in fact, they have repeatedly pointed to China and Russia, believing that China and Russia have posed two major challenges to the United States and Australia.
Mike Scravton, former deputy minister of sustainable development and environmental protection in Victoria, Australia, former chief aide and adviser to the Australian secretary of defence, wrote questioning what the emphasis on "interchangeability" between the United States and Australia means for the independent command and control of Australia's military forces. What expectations do Americans expect from the "availability" of the Australian military in the event of a crisis? Has the freedom of the democratically elected government to decide on war been compromised?
Mike Sclavton argues that in strengthening the military alliance with the United States, it is likely that Mars is advocating that Australia surrender sovereignty and hand over its most critical national responsibility — the decision to fight independent wars — to a major power. The distinction between U.S. and Australian military forces is disappearing as the Australian Defence Force becomes a "plug-in" for the U.S. and Australia becomes an armed base for the U.S. military.
03
A military expert told "Patch up a knife" that on the issue of strengthening military cooperation with the United States to contain China, the attitude of the Current Mars and Albanese governments is only slightly different from that of the Dutton and Morrison governments, and there will not be much difference overall.
Because this is related to Australia's current national attitude toward China and the overall pattern of the Asia-Pacific region. Australia's political elite, defense elite, and even the main body of society are Westerners, most of whom have ancestors from the British past, and some of them have come to Australia to develop later. Therefore, in the political operation and defense system construction, it is the Western set.
Moreover, Australia and the United States are close, not just because of the combination of interests, but because they themselves instinctively think together, tacitly. Behind this is the consistency of the basic cultures and values of the two countries, and Australia's judgment of the current Asia-Pacific situation is also the same as that of the United States.
Especially with China's increased cooperation in the South Pacific, Australia has become more aggressive in its attitude toward China in the past year or two, and it believes that the Asia-Pacific region has formed a new situation, and Australia can only follow the United States to avoid its backyard being invaded by China. So we see that when the United States encircles China in the Asia-Pacific region, the main pawns are Australia and Japan. And Australia is even more radical, more aggressive and more open than Japan.
In addition, Australia covers an area of 7.69 million square kilometers, but its population is only about 26 million. This shows that Australia's population is relatively scattered. Australia's active-duty army is about 50,000 to 60,000 people. In this way, it is true that the United States can use some parts of Australia for military bases. Of course, this requires the adoption of the Australian government, the approval of Parliament and so on. But theoretically it is possible.
The expert said that Australia is also very rich in resources, but its military enterprises just can't get up, and its level is very different from that of the United States and the United Kingdom. But the idea for Australia is that we don't have to put so much effort into our own original research, just rely on the United States or the United Kingdom.
Australia's defense industry is to help the big military companies in the United States and Britain. The close connection between the two is equivalent to the Australian defense companies are part of the research and development team of the subsidiaries of the American and British military industrial enterprises. In this way, driven by the United States and Britain, Australia is also making progress. For example, the "Augustus" alliance, from the United States and Britain to provide nuclear submarines to Australia, that is, the United States and Britain are supporting Australia, forming a deep binding.
If it is really necessary, Australia can provide the United States with bases, including Marine Corps and Air Force bases, then the United States amphibious combat forces and F-35 fighters, and even some bombers can increase their deployment in the Pacific, to put it bluntly, equivalent to a forward base for the United States. Judging from the US-Australia defense agreement, this possibility exists.
In addition, Australia's intelligence cooperation with the United States is also very deep and has been linked. Moreover, based on Australia's geographical location, Australia can also provide the United States with a monitoring base for the operation of space facilities to enhance the United States' space perception capabilities.
On the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, the Albanese and Morrison governments will not change in essence. This is mainly the responsibility of the Australian military, which has deep coordination with the US Indo-Pacific Command, especially in response to sudden situations in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
Therefore, the difference is the problem of saying and not saying, or the problem of saying more and saying less. The extent of Australia's involvement in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea in the future depends on how the United States intervenes. If a deep confrontation between China and the United States really breaks out and important US facilities in the Asia-Pacific region are hit, then Australia will certainly carry out rear support, intelligence support, base support and so on. Whether or not to send troops depends on australia's final negotiations with the United States.
Another Australian expert told "Make up for a knife" that Australia's thinking on China cannot only look at how the defense minister expresses his position, nor can it focus on how the two defense ministers are so radical, but must realize that Australia's current understanding of China is the whole government.
This is true not only of the Minister of Defence, but also of many major political figures such as the Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Of course, the new Australian government has been in office for less than 2 months now, and the overall strategy and policy have not yet been fully formed. But so far, it's clear that they are following the trajectory of their predecessors and tying themselves to the U.S. "Indo-Pacific strategy."
It can be seen from the trajectory of the defense minister himself that after he took office, he first went to the incense meeting, followed by the summits of South Korea, India, NATO, and most recently to the United States, which shows that Australia is completely in accordance with the expectations of the United States for it, and carries out strategic deployment.
In fact, not long ago, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi made four demands to the Australian side, including rejecting "third-party manipulation." This is very crucial and important for the restoration of China-Australia relations.