Years later, when Daniel Zhang, the founder of Haidilao, and Zhang Lan, the founder of Pretty Jiangnan, look back on the past in the middle of the night, will they feel that when they first went to Singapore, it was the most successful decision in their lives?
Because, today, the world is sinking and Singapore is reveling.
This small country, which is less than one-tenth the size of Guangzhou, has a total GDP of nearly 2.7 trillion yuan in 2021, surpassing Suzhou and approaching Guangzhou.
According to the World Bank, Singapore's per capita GDP in 2021 will be nearly 490,000 yuan, and the United States is not a rival.
Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry expects Singapore's economy to grow by 3%-5% in 2022. Therefore, some people predict that Singapore's per capita GDP will exceed 530,000 yuan in 2022.
Macro numbers may not be intuitive. In fact, two words can reflect how good Singapore's economy is this year, that is: robbing people and grabbing houses.
First, recruitment depends on robbery.
According to reports, wages in Singapore have generally increased compared with last year, and many companies have directly increased their salaries by 15%.
You know, Singaporean companies have always been considered to be relatively picky. An Internet practitioner who returned from Singapore said that in ordinary times, even if it is relatively more "willing to spend money" Internet companies, the salary increase is basically 5%, and even 10% is rare.
Some companies that are in a hurry to hire people not only raise salaries, but also give benefits as much as possible, not only after successful entry, they will immediately issue 3,000 Singapore dollars, about 14,000 yuan of entry rewards, but also promise to provide children's bursaries in addition to year-end bonuses, paid annual leave, medical insurance.
Even so, there are still companies that can't grab employees. The companies even joined forces to demand that Singapore quickly relax the policy restrictions on foreigners working in Singapore, "first solve the current shortage of people and then say!" ”
Second, renting a house must also be grabbed.
This year, the Rental Market in Singapore has exploded incredibly hot.
According to media reports, expats now generally pay 20%-40% more rent than before. There are even arrogant landlords, and the opening is to double the asking price.
On this, in order to fight for hand speed, many people do not even have time to conduct field investigations, only relying on a few photos and videos sent by the intermediary, and paying the deposit on the spot.
I was afraid that "one more look, the house will be gone".
Therefore, some people naturally have the intention of going to Singapore. And the institutions also stood up in time to support people with ideas.
Don't talk about ordinary people, in fact, Chinese companies have long begun to run to Singapore!
Why is Singapore so moist when the world is generally sad?
Why do so many companies want to go to Singapore?
01
On May 20, when more than 50 million people watched Jay Chou's concert online, WEI WAS WAS LISTED ON THE SINGAPORE EXCHANGE.
Since then, NIO has become the first electric vehicle company listed in the United States, China and Singapore.
What prompted Wei to carry out the "pit-holding" listing was the United States. Because, the United States is blocking the stock market.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, also known as the SEC, has thrown out 9 batches of "pre-delisted lists", and 149 Chinese companies have been listed. The Chinese stock storm that was half by Trump the year before was pushed to a climax by Biden.
Being on the "pre-delisting list" means that it may be forced to delist from the US stock market in the future.
Previously, 23 companies, including Baidu, iQiyi, and Weibo, have entered the "confirmed pre-delisting" list, and will be kicked out of the US stock market as early as early 2024.
Companies that have not yet entered the "confirmed pre-delisting" list are required to submit audit papers containing raw data for review within 15 working days. Otherwise, it will be included in the "confirmed pre-delisting" list and withdrawn.
In the past three decades, there have been more than 270 Chinese-listed companies listed in the United States, and today, half of them have been blocked. Weilai is one of them.
Therefore, Weilai has to quickly find several alternative exchanges. The SGX is one of them.
Suddenly, a unicorn with a market value of more than 210 billion yuan came, and the SGX happy to blossom. As a result, the process of Listing on the SGX is smooth and smooth.
On May 5, it was announced by the SEC to be included in the "pre-delisting" list, and on May 20, it was directly and successfully registered on the SGX. Even counting the previous preparation time, the process of Weilai listing on the SGX is excessively smooth.
Why did NIO go public in Singapore so quickly? Because the SGX not only grabbed people, but also China stocks.
CICC's research report assesses that if Chinese stocks return from US stocks, it may bring more than 74 billion yuan of new fundraising.
At present, the SGX is negotiating more than 100 Chinese-listed companies, covering a variety of industries from financial technology to consumer technology, from real estate to special purpose acquisition companies.
NIO is not the only company that has been suppressed and forced to shift its position to Singapore, nor is the United States the only country to suppress Chinese companies. In recent years, India has also been constantly suppressing Chinese companies.
If there is a difference, it is that the American method is at least decent; And India's means are really not exquisite at all.
More than 300 China-related applications are sealed, China's investment restrictions are restricted, billions of assets of Chinese companies are frozen, and even "malicious censorship" of Chinese companies.
Why "malicious censorship"? Some Chinese companies in India complained: "They can't find out the problem every time, but they need money every time." ”
Even companies from Singapore suffered from sitting because their bosses were of Chinese descent.
At the end of March, Shopee, a cross-border e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia, announced that it had decided to close its India operations "in view of the uncertainty of the global market".
Under the dual pressure of India and the United States, Tencent has said that it will set up its Southeast Asian headquarters in Singapore. Along with Tencent, there are also Xiaomi, Ali, Byte, Huawei and so on.
Byte plans to invest billions of dollars in Singapore within 3 years. Alibaba has invested $3 billion in Singapore-based food delivery service Grab.
Cross-border e-commerce SHEIN, once surpassed Amazon as the most downloaded shopping app in the United States, but it has been repeatedly suppressed in India. SHEIN is recruiting a lot in Singapore and has plans to set up Singapore as its international headquarters.
In addition to the big factories, many Chinese companies that want to go to sea have used Singapore as a bridgehead.
When a large factory moves to Singapore, it first needs to recruit soldiers. They snatched people away first, and then it was the turn of the smaller companies. As a result, employees in small companies are scarce.
It can be said that because of the quarrel between China and the United States and China and India, Singapore takes advantage in the middle.
So the question is, there are so many countries in Southeast Asia, why Singapore?
After all, Singapore is just a projectile land, smaller than Pudong in Shanghai. Even in Southeast Asia, the land area is at the bottom.
The United States not only has a crush on Singapore, but also loves Singapore.
The United States has not only helped Singapore develop its economy, but has even provided military assistance to Singapore to ensure that it is not bullied by its neighbors.
Since the early days of Singapore's founding, the US military has had a military base in Singapore, and Singapore has been very active in cooperating. After Singapore purchased the US fighter jet, it had no place to train, and would fly directly to the US military base in Guam for training.
In order to better become a US aircraft carrier supply station, Singapore invested heavily in the establishment of Changi Naval Base, becoming the first aircraft carrier berthing base opened by the US Navy in Southeast Asia since its withdrawal from the Philippines.
Until now, the United States has the right to use many military bases in Singapore, such as Changi Naval Base, Sembawang Naval Base, Bayeux Leban Air Base, etc.
Why is the United States so enthusiastic about a small country that spans half the world and is more than 15,000 kilometers away from itself? And why is Singapore so obedient and has been actively cooperating with the United States?
More importantly, will Singapore remain loyal to the United States forever?
02
Objectively speaking, Singapore is so popular because of its geographical location.
Singapore is located on the choke point of the Strait of Malacca.
Known as the "lifeline" and "sea crossroads" of maritime shipping, the Strait of Malacca is the most important channel for shipping communication between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Ships to and from Asia, Africa, Oceania and Europe pass through here.
The amount of goods flowing in and out here is 3 times that of the Suez Canal and 5 times that of the Panama Canal, making the Strait of Malacca the first of the top ten straits in the world.
The Port of Singapore is located on the southeast side of the Strait of Malacca, with a maximum draft of 24.5 meters, a maximum of 300,000 dwt ships, and a supertanker with a maximum of 350,000 dwt, which can be called a hub "hub".
Today, the Port of Singapore has opened more than 200 routes, connecting more than 600 ports in 123 countries and regions, and has the ability to handle 630 million tons of cargo and 33.7 million TEU logistics per year, becoming the second largest port in the world, second only to Shanghai Port.
(TEU is an abbreviation for The English Texty-Feet Equivalent Unit, which is often used to indicate the capacity of ships to load containers, and is also an important statistical and conversion unit for container and port throughput.) It is an international unit of measurement for containers with a length of 20 feet, also known as international standard container units. ）
The Port of Singapore has seven free trade zones, 85,000 square meters of warehouses, 234,000 square meters of yards and 120,000 square meters of transit cargo warehouses.
The Port of Singapore is also the world's largest fuel supply port, with a storage capacity of 800,000 cubic meters and a refining capacity of 1.2 million barrels per day.
What's more, Singapore, as the hub of Southeast Asia, is less than 4,000 kilometers from China and can be reached in less than five and a half hours by plane.
Behind such a privileged location is a small land area and scarce natural resources. Singapore relies on Malaysia even for drinking water. Without doing business with other countries, Singaporeans can't even guarantee survival, let alone protect themselves.
Therefore, natural endowments determine that Singapore is important, but it is also very dependent on various patrons. Singapore's recent history is basically the history of constantly finding a backer.
From 1867 until 1959, for almost a century, Singapore was a British colony. During this period, although Singapore had no independent sovereignty, it was well protected under british wing.
However, during World War II, the Japanese army easily defeated the British army in Singapore. The battle made Singapore realize that Britain had no way to protect itself.
In the mid-20th century, under the leadership of The Founding Father Lee Kuan Yew and others, Singapore began a national independence movement. Hollowed out by World War II, Britain decided to abandon colonial rule and began to gradually withdraw its troops.
In 1959, britain recognized Singapore's autonomy, which also meant that Britain had no obligation to protect Singapore, so Lee Kuan Yew decided to rely on Malaysia.
In 1962, Lee Kuan Yew initiated a nationwide vote to join Malaysia. There are three options for voting, which are:
A: I agree to the merger, but retain some autonomy, and all Singaporeans become Malaysians
B: I agree to the merger, but appropriately reduce the right to self-government and occupy a certain proportion of seats in the Bundestag
C: I agree to merge, but Cede more rights
If voters do not agree to the merger, they can only cast blank ballots. As a result, more than 1/4 of voters cast blank votes.
The Lee Kuan Yew government had long anticipated such an outcome, stipulating in advance in the electoral guidelines that if there were no more than half of the blank votes, it would be counted as the option to win the most votes.
That is, more than 143,000 blank ballots were credited to option A.
But Singapore doesn't want to be a "professional manager" hired by an employer, but a true owner, a country made up of 75% Chinese, hoping to achieve equal rights.
This touches Malaysia's bottom line. As a result, Malaysia squeezed Singapore not only economically, but also politically.
In the first year of joining Malaysia, Singapore had to pay 40% of the tax, and the second year it directly became 60%.
Where there is oppression, there will be resistance.
As a result, in the 1963 Malaysian elections, the Singapore People's Action Party , led by Lee Kuan Yew , won control of parliament in one fell swoop.
However, this makes the Malaysian political class feel completely threatened. In 1965, Malaysia voted 126 in favor and 0 against singapore out of the Federation of Malaysia.
In the face of this sudden situation, Lee Kuan Yew could not cry when reading the Singapore Declaration of Independence, saying that this was his lifelong regret.
Then, forced independence for Singapore faced a new problem. In 1971, the last British garrison left Singapore, which was suddenly left without military protection.
At that time, the world was in the wind of the Soviet And American poles. Lee Kuan Yew, who studied in Britain and embraced Western values from an early age, decisively chose the United States as an ally.
In fact, Singapore as a whole was weak at that time, but it was a little richer than Malaysia. In its early years, Singapore's GDP was less than $1 billion.
In order to seek the protection of the United States, Lee Kuan Yew frequently showed favor to the United States.
Most of Singapore's airports in the United States can be used at will; U.S. warships can berth at any port in Singapore without prior notice; During the Vietnam War, Singapore became a supply depot for the U.S. Seventh Fleet.
In the face of such an obedient little brother, the United States has shot again, people, money, and technology. That's why, in 1965, Singapore was just a small fishing village, and in just 32 years, it has grown into the only developed country in East Asia with a GDP of more than $100 billion.
With the support of the United States, not only can Singapore, one of the "Four Asian Tigers", be able to free its hands and feet to grasp the economy and promote production, but more importantly, it is more convenient for multinational companies to do business in Singapore.
The more prosperous globalization becomes, the more prosperous the maritime "crossroads" will be.
In 1965, Singapore's unemployment rate was 10%, and with the attraction of foreign oil extraction equipment manufacturing, electronic assembly and other industries, Singapore's local clothing, toys, food production, drilling equipment manufacturing, leather, shipbuilding and other enterprises have also developed rapidly. By 1972, the unemployment rate had fallen to 4.7 per cent.
The open market has given small Singapore a strong ability to withstand pressure. Even as the global oil crisis of 1973 caused the world economy to decline, Singapore continued to grow steadily.
Between 1965 and 1978, Singapore's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10%, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, and manufacturing output rose from 14% in 1965 to 24% in 1978.
Since 1982, American computer and peripheral equipment manufacturers have also set up factories in Singapore. By 1985, more than 150 multinational companies were engaged in the production of electronic products and computer accessories in Singapore, and Singapore became an important distribution center for the world's hard disk drive industry, contracting nearly half of the world's production.
This has led to the development of related industries such as printed circuit boards, metal stamping, die casting, precision machining and so on. By 1985, Singapore's share of skilled workers in the total labour force had increased from 11 per cent to 22 per cent.
For a long time in the past, riding on the big ship of globalization of the industrial chain, Singapore can be described as a smooth sailing.
According to the research of scholars at East China Normal University, since independence, Singapore's annual import and export trade volume has remained around 300% of GDP.
Objectively speaking, in the past history, Singapore and China have more or less competed in the division of labor in the global industrial chain. Singapore needs a formidable rival to help it compete. This is also a survival strategy that small countries have to do but are very clever.
If the script continues like this, Singapore can live a small life smoothly and steadily. But things are uncertain.
Singapore's patron is in trouble again.
In 2009, the obama administration, which took office as a new official, promulgated the "Revitalization of the U.S. Manufacturing Framework" and proposed plans to "multiply exports" and "return manufacturing."
It is not difficult to understand why the United States made such a decision. In 2008, the US real estate bubble burst, and the economy urgently needed to de-financialize and de-real estate, strive to develop manufacturing, increase employment, and maintain economic stability.
In other words, the United States, which is accustomed to making "easy money" from finance and real estate, must grab back the manufacturing industry that has been contracted out to earn "hard money".
That is to say, the United States has changed from dominating globalization to dominating "anti-globalization."
This is a heavy blow for Singapore, a huge beneficiary of an overly "outgoing" economy and industrial globalization: what about happiness?
Since 2010, Singapore's economic growth has begun to slow down.
I saw a slight improvement in Singapore's economy in 2016. As a result, Trump, who shouted "America First" even louder, came to power.
Trump has angrily rebuked those who support free trade: Whenever I hear some lawmakers and others talk about the benefits of free trade, I say hehe. This kind of mental disability agreement is causing massive unemployment and more than $800 billion in damage to the United States every year.
Anti-globalization has hampered Singapore's economy, with growth falling to its lowest pace in a decade in 2019.
What makes Singapore even more nervous is that at the same time, its "killer" singapore port status is also facing challenges.
03
For a long time in the past, the Strait of Malacca did receive 60% of the world's oil shipments and 80% of China's oil transportation.
However, in recent years, China has begun to establish new shipping routes with more countries, constantly diverting traffic in the Strait of Malacca.
In 2001, at the invitation of Pakistan, China signed a financing agreement for the first phase of the Gwadar Port project. The port of Gwadar allowed China to bypass the Strait of Malacca, greatly shortening its voyage to the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
In 2015, the China-Myanmar crude oil pipeline began operation, and the port of Mad Island was officially opened at the same time. Allow china to bypass the Strait of Malacca and import some of its oil from Myanmar.
Although the Clark Canal in Thailand and the Port of Huangjing in Malaysia are still hanging in the air, they are also important competitors to the Port of Singapore. Once built, it will allow China to further reduce its dependence on the Port of Singapore.
While the importance of the Port of Singapore to China continues to decline, the importance of the Chinese market to Singapore continues to increase:
In 2013, China overtook the European Union to become Singapore's largest trading partner.
In 2014, China replaced the European Union as Singapore's largest export market.
In 2017, China and Singapore's total import and export volume was more than twice that of the United States and Singapore.
In fact, Singapore, which is increasingly unable to find a stable foothold on the scale, has long felt that it is becoming more and more dependent on the Chinese market.
As early as 2009, when Obama was in office, he proposed a "return to the Asia-Pacific" strategy, which created regional panic and created a series of disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.
Since then, Lee Hsien Loong has repeatedly expressed his welcome to the United States' return to the Asia-Pacific region.
After all, for a long time, the trade volume between the United States and Singapore, not to mention the European Union, was even comparable to that of Malaysia and Indonesia, let alone China.
Singapore is in a hurry.
In 2013, Lee Hsien Loong publicly advocated to U.S. business groups: "The United States should actively participate in southeast Asian trade." In Southeast Asia, trade is strategy.
Singapore is doing everything in its power to help the United States engage constructively and productively in the region to promote stability and prosperity for all nations. ”
To amplify U.S. anxiety, Lee Hsien Loong also said at the time: "In the past 10 years, China has become the number one trading partner of almost all Southeast Asian countries, including U.S. allies such as the Philippines and Thailand." ”
At that time, Singapore hoped that the United States would return to the Asia-Pacific region, just like the long drought and hope for Ganlin.
However, the big truth of "America First" ultimately controlled the small truth of "Balance Master" Singapore.
On May 23, 2022, in an interview with Lee Hsien Loong published in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, it was clear that new changes had taken place in Singapore.
Regarding the Nihon Keizai Shimbun's suggestion that "in the past 10 years, the economic and military balance in the Asia-Pacific region has gradually 'tilted toward China'", Lee Hsien Loong replied:
"China is the largest trading partner of almost all Asian countries, including Japan and Singapore. This is a natural consequence and is generally welcomed by the countries of the region. Because this creates opportunities for cooperation, trade, and prosperity, many countries want to benefit from the opportunities brought about by China's development. ”
Lee Hsien Loong also expressed his appreciation for China's multilateral activities such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative.
Of course, Lee Hsien Loong also expressed such an attitude to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun: "Maintain a balance, so that there is flexibility and will not be overly dependent on either side." ”
Objectively speaking, in the past, Singapore did not cater to a single country, but to the leader of globalization. Today, Singapore caters not to China, but also to the leader of globalization.
Lee Hsien Loong's ability and courage to put forward the slogan that "the United States cannot stop the rise of China, and Singapore will not choose a side" is courage and wisdom.
At present, Singapore's economy and the "rise of China" ship are getting closer and closer. In addition to the increasingly strong "interaction" of import and export trade, the overlap of "money and road" is also getting higher and higher.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in the first half of 2021, China's investment in the new industry was US$2.60 billion, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year; Singapore's new industry-wide investment in China was US$5.52 billion, up 59.5% year-on-year.
As of June 2021, the total industry-wide investment in China reached US$116 billion, and China's cumulative industry-wide investment in Singapore totaled US$70.72 billion.
Not only that, But Singapore, which has always followed the pace of the United States on the pretext of "curbing the rise of China", has now played an important role in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi.
At the end of September 2021, the balance of offshore RMB deposits in Singapore was $163 billion, accounting for about 2% of Singapore commercial bank deposits.
Moreover, the first offshore RMB bond in China in 2015 was also issued in Singapore.
End
Small countries are born with many shortcomings and helplessness.
It is a miracle that Singapore, with its small size, small population, food and water shortage and lack of resources, has achieved its current economic achievements.
Singapore's ability to achieve a per capita GDP of nearly 490,000 yuan is inseparable from the wisdom of this small country in navigating between large countries.
Objectively, as a small country, Singapore has done a very good job. Instead of being deeply "ridden" by large countries like Japan and South Korea, Singapore has been looking for a backer, but it can jump to the side that is more favorable to itself at any time.
Even if Singapore is betting heavily on China at the moment, Singapore is not a "colony" of China, it is still a free body, and its heart is still calling for the United States to return to the Asia-Pacific region.
After all, as a small country, only when it is valuable to multiple large countries can it strive for the maximum benefit of its own development.
From this point of view, the competition between China and the United States is an opportunity for all small countries. Every small country that doesn't take a hasty stance has a chance to be the next Singapore. And once in line, it's hard to turn back.
The same is true for individuals.
Years later, when Daniel Zhang, the founder of Haidilao, and Zhang Lan, the founder of Pretty Jiangnan, look back on the past in the middle of the night, will they feel that when they first went to Singapore, they were the most hasty choices in their lives?