Source: Global Times
At the recently concluded Madrid summit, NATO frequently made cruel moves against Russia. The summit announced that it would increase the NATO rapid reaction force to 300,000 people and issued invitations to Sweden and Finland to join the treaty. This means that the NATO summit has achieved the purpose of achieving expansion and increasing the deployment of forces to strengthen military pressure on Russia. On June 30, local time, German Chancellor Scholz announced after the NATO summit that in order to cooperate with NATO's military expansion plan, Germany will set up a long-term force with 15,000 soldiers, a regional naval command, and 60 aircraft.
Three Baltic States: NATO strengthens deployment in the most urgent areas
Generally speaking, the so-called east wing of NATO includes Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia. The Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were once Soviet republics, the closest to Russia, and the countries that shouted the "Russian threat" the most fiercely. Under the influence of the spillover effect of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the three Baltic countries are also regarded by NATO as the most urgent area for strengthening the deployment and defense of forces.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced at the Madrid summit that it would expand nato's rapid reaction force to 300,000 people. NATO's rapid reaction force currently numbers about 40,000 people. According to the Washington Post, the NATO expansion plan announced by Stoltenberg will be carried out in two steps: The first step is to strengthen the deployment of NATO combat groups in NATO's eastern wing countries, especially the three Baltic countries, and realize the expansion from the current battalion combat group to the brigade combat group. In the second step, each country will draw up a plan and plan to come up with its share of the 300,000 troops that can contribute to it. It is highly likely that these 300,000 troops will be deployed mainly in their own countries, but they will need to clarify the command relationship and optimize the battle plan to form a rapid reaction capability.
Therefore, the deployment of strengthened forces to the three Baltic states has become the most urgent task for NATO at present. The British Ministry of Defence announced that it would deploy an additional 1,000 people to Estonia on top of the current 1,700-man combat group already deployed by NATO to Estonia. But the 1,000 men would normally be deployed inside britain and would travel to Estonia for reinforcements in an emergency. At the same time, the British Navy currently has 2 aircraft carrier strike groups, and will provide 1 aircraft carrier strike group for rotational deployment for the mission of NATO Rapid Reaction Force. NATO's operations group in Lithuania was commanded by the Commander of the German Army, who announced that it would add an additional 3,500 troops, and also adopted the deployment mode of "usually in Germany and emergency assistance". NATO's operations group in Latvia is composed of Canadian, Spanish and Danish troops, which are under the command of the Canadian army, and after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Denmark has sent 800 additional personnel to Latvia, and Canada has also announced that it will increase its military presence in Latvia, but did not announce the specific number of additional troops. The Latvian military said that the focus is not on the number of troops deployed, but on military capacity building, and will strengthen cooperation in the future around the deployment of the "Haimas" system, anti-aircraft missiles and anti-ship missiles in Latvia.
Poland, Romania and other Eastern European countries: the focus of the US military deployment areas
At the same time that NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg announced the expansion of NATO's military construction, US President Biden also announced plans to increase the deployment of troops to Europe, focusing on Eastern European countries. Among them, the forward command post of the US Fifth Army Command will be permanently deployed to Poland. The U.S. Army's Fifth Army, founded in 1918 as part of the U.S. Expeditionary Force, fought in World War II and the Iraq War. In 2013, the Fifth Army Command was withdrawn, but in 2020 it was rebuilt and partially stationed in the Poznan region of Poland. The U.S. Army's reconstruction of the Fifth Army Command is to prepare for a military confrontation with Russia to strengthen command and control, and the Fifth Army Command will be responsible for commanding the forward deployment of U.S. Army units. According to the "Theater" section of the US "Power" website reported on June 29, the US military will also continue to "maintain and seek to enhance the rotational deployment presence in Poland", which may include 1 armored brigade, 1 aviation combat brigade part and 1 divisional command post.
At the same time, according to Biden's plan, the United States will also strengthen rotational deployments in the Baltic Sea region, including armored, aviation, air defense and special operations forces, and establish further interoperability and enhanced training with regional allies. The U.S. Air Force is preparing to deploy two additional squadrons of F-35 fighters to The British Air Force Base in Lakenheath, which currently has two squadrons of F-35 fighters deployed by the U.S. Air Force. The U.S. Navy is preparing to deploy two additional Burke-class guided-missile destroyers to Spain's Rota Naval Base, bringing the number of U.S. Navy destroyers deployed here to 6. In addition, the United States will also deploy 1 more air defense brigade command post, 1 short-range air defense battalion, 1 combat support battalion, and 1 engineering brigade command post in Germany, and 1 more short-range air defense company in Italy.
According to the "Theater of Operations", the US military's plan to increase troops to Europe will be completed in the next few months, but as of now, the US Department of Defense still refuses to disclose the specific number of ADDITIONAL US troops announced by Biden to Europe. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has sent more than 20,000 additional troops to Europe, and about 100,000 US troops are currently providing defense and deterrence in Europe.
Nordic countries such as Sweden and Finland: zones for the integration of future forces
During the NATO Madrid Summit, the NATO Secretary-General formally extended an invitation to the two countries to join the treaty. Turkey abruptly changed its attitude and agreed to support Finland and Sweden joining NATO. This means that the barriers to entry in Sweden and Finland have been completely removed. Under the current circumstances, the procedures for the two countries to enter the treaty will enter the "fast lane", and the time will be greatly compressed. Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt told CNN that he believes that after Sweden and Finland join the treaty, NATO will not build large military facilities in the territory of the two countries, and the entry of the two countries will mean strengthening more military training with NATO countries and making military defense plans. Bildt's remarks were actually an attempt to cover up the truth. The New York Times said that Sweden and Finland were able to join NATO, which is a big event that NATO dreams of and Russia has been trying to prevent for a long time, and its follow-up geopolitical impact is extremely great.
A military expert told the Global Times on June 30 that Sweden is known for its sound and independent military industrial system and huge war potential, while Finland is known for its perennial high combat readiness and independent geopolitical conditions. At present, Sweden and Finland have 24,000 active military personnel and 23,000 people, respectively. However, due to Finland's insistence on compulsory military service, Sweden also restarted conscription in 2017 after the Crimean crisis, and the reserves of the two countries are very sufficient. Even if NATO does not build military facilities or garrison troops in Sweden and Finland, the armed forces of the two countries will be included in NATO's battle plan, especially its close geographical conditions, which will become an excellent position for NATO to strengthen strategic early warning and reconnaissance of Russia, and the two countries will become "outpost positions" for reconnaissance of Russia. From the perspective of the sea, after the two countries enter the treaty, the exit of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy will be completely blocked by NATO.
Experts believe that NATO's re-implementation of expansion will undoubtedly expand NATO's encirclement of Russia and continue to aggravate Russia's security dilemma, which will force the Russian military to obtain greater security benefits in Ukraine to offset the impact of hedging NATO's re-expansion. The objectives of Russia's military operations in Ukraine do not rule out the possibility of adjustment.