Text/"Phoenix Big Reference" Special Author Tao Short Room
Core Executive Summary:
1. For Finland and Sweden to apply to join NATO, some "self-media" friends expressed great incomprehension of this behavior, and even caused ridicule, saying that this was "contrary to the decision of the ancestors". In fact, neutral countries can be divided into many kinds, such as "specific neutrality", "armed neutrality" and "one-sided neutrality".
2. The "neutrality" of Europe originated in the "Peace of Westphalia" in 1640, and Monaco became the first country to declare itself permanently neutral in 1814; In 1815, Switzerland became the first permanent neutral country to receive an international guarantee. Since then, 13 countries, including Sweden, Luxembourg and San Marino, have successively declared "neutrality". However, before the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, with the exception of a few "one-sided permanent neutral countries" and a few pocket countries, there were five recognized European "neutral countries": Austria, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland and Ireland.
3. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Finland and Sweden signed the Mutual Defence Agreement with Great Britain. Since Finland's neutrality is based on international treaties, the agreement has automatically lost its status as a "permanently neutral country". Sweden's status as a "permanent neutral country" is conventional, and it remains a "neutral country" until it formally joins NATO and announces its abandonment of "neutrality".
4. The other three "neutral countries", Switzerland is fine-tuning its policies, may develop closer relations with NATO, but will still maintain a "neutral" status. There is a great deal of debate in Austria about whether to remain neutral, but it will not leave "neutral Europe" for a short time. Compared with the previous two countries, Ireland's "neutral country" position is relatively firm. The Russo-Ukrainian war would have greatly reduced the territory of "neutral Europe", but it would not have led to its complete demise.
▎ On June 28, local time, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg held quadripartite talks with Turkish President Erdogan, Finnish President Niinistö and Swedish Prime Minister Anderson in Madrid, Spain. After the negotiations, Turkey withdrew its resolution rejecting the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO and agreed to join nato. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said: "NATO will accept Sweden and Finland as quickly as possible in history"
With Finland and Sweden formally applying to join NATO, the two-hundred-year-old "neutral Europe" map has suddenly shrunk, and every neutral European country seems to be walking at a crossroads.
Over the past few days, many friends of the "Chinese world" have expressed great doubts and confusion, and even disgust and "group ridicule" for a number of neutral European countries who have not hesitated to give up "a century of peace" to "embrace hegemony."
As the main battlefield of the two world wars, far from all-out war, massacres and genocides, how many Europeans who are far from full-scale war, massacre and genocide are just "an ancient rarity", how many Europeans really do not want peace, but love war and military alliances? Li Yuanping, a Tang Dynasty man, once said that there are not many ordinary people who dream of becoming heroes, so they are afraid of chaos in the world, and enjoying an ordinary happiness in peacetime is the vision of most people.
Why not for small and medium-sized countries?
Some of these countries, which chose neutrality in the first place and now choose to abandon neutrality, are difficult, or even forced choices intended to pursue their own security. We can disagree with their choices and reasons for their choices, but they undoubtedly have a historical iteration with different tastes, but all of them are sour, sweet, bitter and spicy.
Let's look back at the past and briefly sort out the two-hundred-year vein of "neutral Europe" and the crossroads it is facing.
There are also several types of "neutrality"? Take stock of Europe's history of neutral nations
Chapter XIII of the 1907 Hague Convention deals with the provisions of "neutral nations". Source: International Committee of the Red Cross
The so-called "Neutral country" refers to a country declaring "neutrality" in response to an ongoing international war. If neutrality is declared only in a particular war, it is called "specific neutrality", which means voluntarily complying with the provisions of chapters 5 and 13 of the 1907 Hague Convention and neither joining either party to the conflict nor providing any non-humanitarian goods, support and assistance to either party; If it declares "neutrality in all wars", it is called "permanent neutrality".
Generally speaking, a country that calls itself a "permanent neutral country" is called a "one-sided permanent neutral country", which may not necessarily be internationally recognized, such as Yugoslavia during the Cold War and serbia today unilaterally called itself a "permanent neutral country", but because it is not recognized or guaranteed by any international treaty or recognized international organization, many countries do not recognize its "permanent neutrality" status, and permanent neutrality that obtains international treaties or other strong international guarantees will be universally respected and recognized, such as Switzerland's permanent neutrality in 1815" The Congress of Vienna "guaranteed the permanent neutrality of Austria as determined by the 1955 Austrian State Treaty and guaranteed by the four former post-World War II occupying Powers of the Soviet Union, the United States, Britain and France.
If the army is voluntarily disbanded to show that it is "no longer involved in armed conflict", it is called "unarmed neutrality", such as the small country of Liechtenstein disbanded the army of only 60 people as early as 1868, thus becoming an "unarmed neutral country", if the army is maintained, but only in self-defense or participates in peacekeeping military operations launched by specific international organizations such as the United Nations, it is called "armed neutrality", such as Switzerland is a well-known armed neutral country, not only maintaining the army, but also practicing "all the people are soldiers", And has a considerable military industrial base.
The Peace of Westphalia established the independence of Switzerland
The concept of "neutrality" first appeared in Europe, when a series of city-states located in the Alps between Germany and the Holy Roman Empire were tired of the endless "War of the Electors" of Silla and the scuffle between Sula and France, so in 1640 they formed their own union into the Swiss Confederation, declared the "Peace of Westphalia", no longer involved in the Internal War between Thera and France, and were recognized by both countries; The First League of Armed Neutrality, initiated by Tsar Catherine II of Russia in 1780, was the first international neutral alliance, with members including Tsarist Russia, the Danish-Norwegian Alliance, and Sweden, but the "neutrality" was limited to the sea, against the North American War of Independence, and lasted only 3 years.
The first permanent neutrality recognized by international treaties was born when the smoke of the Napoleonic Wars cleared.
▎ After the Congress of Vienna in 1815, Switzerland and San Marino were granted the status of "permanent neutral states". Source: The International commission & association on nobility (Tican)
During the French Revolution and the subsequent Napoleonic Wars, Monaco, a small principality between France and Italy, was occupied by French troops in 1793, and this occupation lasted until 1814, when Napoleon (Napoléon Bonaparte) was defeated and abdicated by the Anti-French League, and Monaco was determined to re-establish itself and declared "permanent neutrality", making Monaco the first country in the world to declare permanent neutrality (instead of the popularly believed Switzerland).
Although Switzerland declared its neutrality to Shinra and France as early as 1640, the French Revolution still affected the country, and after 1789, french troops occupied most of the territory of the Swiss Confederation, and the counter-offensive of the Anti-French Alliance also affected Switzerland. After the end of the Napoleonic Wars, the victorious powers led the "Vienna Conference" of 1815. On December 20, 1815, the Austrian Empire, France, Britain, the Kingdom of Prussia, and Tsarist Russia jointly signed a memorandum of international legitimacy, formally recognizing the permanent neutrality of Switzerland, and Switzerland became the first permanent neutral country in the world to obtain international guarantees.
In addition to the two foreign countries mentioned above, The oldest republic in Europe, San Marino, which is surrounded by Italy on all sides, also took the opportunity to seek permanent neutrality during the year by witnessing the repeated wars of the surrounding Italian states during the Napoleonic Wars.
Northern Europe of Denmark, Sweden and Norway were also shocked by the cruelty of the Napoleonic Wars and declared "external neutrality" in 1814, but only Sweden was actually officially declared "permanent neutrality" by King Gustav XIV in 1834, the "neutrality" of the other two countries was maintained by the so-called "convention", Denmark was involved in two Schleswig Wars with Prussia, and it was not until 1864 that sweden was "permanently neutral". It has also not obtained any international guarantees, and is in fact in a legal position of "one-sided and permanent neutrality".
The Treaty of London of 1839 provided for Belgium as a "permanently neutral country". Source: Historian on the warpath
In 1839, the integration of the fragmented Netherlands during the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars ended, and the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg, which had been established on the ruins, signed the Treaty of London of 1839 on April 19 of that year, and became "permanent neutrals" at the same time, guaranteed by the Austrian Empire, France, the German Confederation, Tsarist Russia, and Great Britain, which also signed the treaty, which was the second batch of permanent neutral states in Europe.
After that, before the outbreak of the First World War, two small projectile states, Liechtenstein (1864) and Andorra (1914), declared "permanent neutrality", their national strength was weak, and they maintained their independence according to the neighboring powers, while the belligerent powers deliberately left them as a window for smuggling and secret diplomatic contacts, so that their "permanent neutrality" status was maintained.
During World War II, San Marino abandoned neutrality and "declared war" on both camps.
On the eve and early days of world war II, some small countries, under the threat of war, hastily declared "permanent neutrality", such as Estonia, Latvia (1938), Lithuania, Ireland (2 September 1939, the day after the outbreak of the Second World War, through the Irish Emergency Powers Act 1939). But in fact, due to the arrogance of the fascist camp and certain other countries, "neutrality" this time failed to protect all neutral countries from the scourge of war.
Of the above four "permanent neutral countries" that "temporarily cling to their feet", only One Of the "permanent neutral countries" that can always escape the war is Ireland, or because Germany failed to win the air battle with Britain, it was forced to abandon the plan to land on the British Isles, and even Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Denmark, and Norway, which declared "permanent neutrality" before the First World War, were attacked and occupied by Nazi Germany in the "Blitzkrieg", and the countries that escaped by luck had their own reasons (Monaco, Andorra, Liechtenstein because they were too small and insignificant, The Swiss population lacked resources, and the Nazis deliberately reserved it as a secret diplomatic and financial and smuggling channel, and Sweden was due to Germany's desire to trade iron ore with it.)
The most ridiculous thing is that San Marino, which covers an area of only 61.2 square kilometers, was hit by artillery fire from the two major camps of the Alliance and axis that were fighting nearby during the Italian Campaign in 1944, and in a rage, abandoned "permanent neutrality" and announced war against the two camps.
Map of "Neutral Nations" during World War II. Source: Wikipedia
In view of the fact that "permanent neutrality" failed to protect the country from the scourge of war, the five countries occupied by the Nazis after World War II, Belgium, the Netherlands, Rwanda, Danish and Norwegian, all gave up "permanent neutrality", but Ireland refused to be invited to join NATO because of the contradictions between Ireland and britain, and returned to the position of "permanent neutrality". After the war, Austria, which had been annexed by Nazi Germany before the war, was jointly occupied by the Soviet Union, the United States, Britain and France until 1955, and finally confirmed its "permanent neutrality" status under the premise of the Soviet Union's strong demands, the guarantee of the joint occupation of the four major powers, and the recognition of all countries with diplomatic relations.
Finland was unjustifiably extorted by the Soviet Union before the outbreak of World War II, refused to launch the "Soviet-Finnish War" in 1939 after the Soviet Union launched a "soviet-finnish war", Finland after the stubborn resistance of the Soviet Union, occupied a large area of territory centered on Vyborg, angry Finland joined the Axis forces during World War II to fight against the Soviet Union, trying to regain territory, only to be defeated again, forced to sign the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation (Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation) with the Soviet Union in 1948 and Mutual Assistance), which stipulates that Finland should be "permanently neutral" and substantively subordinate to the Soviet Union (known as "Finnishization").
The end of the Cold War fundamentally changed the political map of Europe, but did not shake the "neutral Europe", by the outbreak of the Ukrainian War on February 24, 2022, except for a few "one-sided permanent neutral countries" such as Serbia and a few pocket countries, the recognized "neutral Europe" mainly includes 5 European "permanent neutral countries" with relatively considerable size and strength: Austria, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, and Ireland.
After applying to join NATO, are Finland and Sweden still "neutral"?
The Ambassadors of Finland and Sweden submitted their applications for accession to the Secretary-General of NATO. Source: NATO
The outbreak of the Ukrainian war made Finland and Sweden, the two permanently neutral countries, feel stabbed in the back, and they have changed their neutral positions that have lasted for decades or even nearly 200 years, hoping to enhance their ability to resist foreign enemies by joining the military alliance against Russia.
Let's start with Finland.
Finland passed a resolution by Parliament on May 15 to formally submit its application for accession to NATO, although NATO has not yet ratified this application, and turkey has "inserted a lever" in the intention of "robbing" NATO, but in fact Finland's status as a "permanent neutral country" has been automatically lost.
Why?
On May 11, a day before Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin issued a joint statement that "Finland should seek to join NATO 'without delay,'" Britain and Finland signed the Mutual Defence Agreement, under which either country would be attacked and would provide each other with all possible assistance, including military assistance. This agreement is in fact the same as article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the "mutual defense clause", precisely in view of the time-consuming constraints that Finland may encounter in the process of joining NATO, and the auxiliary defense guarantee unilaterally given in advance by important countries in NATO (the United States also said that it will provide similar guarantees, provided that "Finland and Sweden cannot join NATO soon").
As mentioned earlier, one of the important prerequisites for "permanent neutrality" is "not to join any military alliance", and Finland's original "permanent neutrality" was based on the Soviet-Finnish Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, which stipulates that "Finland shall not sign military cooperation agreements with any country other than the Soviet Union".
▎ Finland's three polls before deciding to join NATO, in which blue means "in favor of joining", red means "against joining", and gray means "do not know". Source: Yle
Finland believes that it has never offended the Soviet Union before the outbreak of the Soviet-Finnish War, but it was unjustifiably claimed territory and imposed war, "permanent neutrality" and "Finnishization" were forced to accept, if "permanent neutrality" can be exchanged for peace, autonomy and stability, the Finns also pinched their noses to accept, but the Ukrainian war made many Finns recall the original history, worried that they would become the "next Ukraine", repeating the scene of the Soviet-Finnish War, and after the start of the war, Russian politicians repeatedly made harsh words of intimidation and threats. It also caused the long-resentful Finns to rebel. Coupled with the fact that Russia's war in Ukraine was not smooth and the mud was deep, the Finns expected that they would not be able to open a "copy" to infect Finland, so public opinion was greatly reversed.
Pre-war Finnish poll support for NATO has long hovered below 25 percent. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the rate of polls supporting NATO membership skyrocketed. The latest YLE poll shows that the proportion of Finns who support NATO has reached 76%, while the opposition rate has dropped to 12%. All of this eventually led to Finland's secession from the "neutral Europe" camp.
The situation in Sweden is much the same as in Finland.
▎ On May 11, 2022, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson met at the official residence of Swedish Prime Minister Nagisa in Hapsund, Sweden. Source: Reuters
Sweden's application for NATO membership was passed by Parliament on May 16 (a day later in Finland), after a change in the position of the ruling Social Democratic Party, which had long been firmly opposed to the abandonment of "permanent neutrality", coupled with the reversal of the polls (the proportion of Novus polls supporting NATO joining NATO for the first time on April 21, reaching 51%, reaching 55% on May 12, compared with 15% before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine), caused Sweden's "permanent neutrality" for nearly two centuries to be in jeopardy.
In fact, Sweden also signed a "mutual defense agreement" with the United Kingdom on May 11, but because Sweden's "permanent neutrality" status is "self-proclaimed and conventional", rather than being limited by treaties as Finland's, it will remain part of "neutral Europe" as long as the Swedish government has not publicly and officially announced its "abandonment of permanent neutrality" before it has officially joined NATO. It is just a matter of time before Turkey's constraints fundamentally shake the NATO-Sweden "marriage" of "you love me", and Sweden automatically abolishes its status as a "permanent neutral country" by joining the military alliance.
After the Russo-Ukrainian War, a neutral Europe is at a crossroads?
Finland and Sweden are like this, but what about the other three?
As the most famous "permanently neutral country", Switzerland's policy is undergoing "fine-tuning".
On May 4, 2022, Paelvi Pulli, head of security policy at the Swiss Ministry of Defense, was interviewed by Reuters in Bern, Switzerland. Source: Reuters
Paelvi Pulli, head of security policy at the country's defense ministry, said the Swiss defense ministry was drafting a report on security options, including joint military exercises with NATO countries and replenishment of ammunition, and that "neutrality will remain, but the content and interpretation may change."
Swiss Defense Minister Viola Amherd said Switzerland should develop closer relations with NATO, but "did not have to join." Pere said permanent neutrality is not a Swiss goal, but an option aimed at strengthening Swiss security, and "strengthening military-political relations with NATO, including regular high-level meetings and other cooperation, is also an option." The report, which will be completed by the end of September and submitted to the Cabinet for consideration and parliamentary discussion, and as a basis for possible decisions on the future direction of Swiss security policy, will not be submitted to Parliament for a vote.
Switzerland has never been involved in an international war since the decision of permanent neutrality at the Congress of Vienna in 1815, and the 1907 Hague Convention stipulates that Switzerland will not participate in international armed conflicts, will not provide troops or armaments to belligerents, and will not open its territory to any belligerent, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Switzerland allows military cooperation with foreign countries in areas such as humanitarian assistance or disaster relief. This was the last time Switzerland had changed its position on defense policy so far, but the war in Ukraine revived the debate because Switzerland was involved in sanctions against Russia, but the current policy did not allow the supply of Swiss-made weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
Faced with pressure, Swiss President Ignazio Cassis ruled out the possibility of supplying weapons to a third country to support Ukraine, but said "neutrality should not be dogmatic", reflecting the wavering of Switzerland's position. Vladimir Khokhlov, a spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Switzerland, threatened that "any change would amount to renouncing neutrality," but it did not work well.
The latest poll shows that 56 percent of respondents support strengthening relations with NATO, well above the calendar-year average of 37 percent. Analysts believe that Russia's offensive against Ukraine has greatly changed the perception of many Swiss people in a Poll of 33 percent who support Switzerland's accession to NATO, much higher than the 21 percent long-term poll value of ETH University in Zurich, according to Sotomo polls.
Nevertheless, the Swiss People's Party (SVP), Switzerland's largest parliamentary group, firmly opposes the abolition of "permanent neutrality" and the fact that the public opinion in favor of joining NATO is far from half, it is believed that Switzerland will remain in the "neutral Europe" map.
Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schalenberg attended a press conference in Vienna, Austria, on 4 May 2022, saying that Austria would remain neutral. Source: Reuters
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner and the ruling People's Party in mid-May, faced with growing domestic pressure to "re-examine the principle of neutrality," said Austria "must remain neutral, must remain neutral" and that "this is a constitutional clause and there is no room for negotiation."
However, the Opposition New Austria Party and others have questioned that "there is not even room for neutral discussion", and austrian public broadcaster ORF recently openly questioned Tanner at a press conference whether it is too strange that "it is too strange that the discussion is neutral or not in Austria", and beate Meinl-Reisinger, the leader of the New Austrian Party, also expressed "inconceivable" that "artificially set up a minefield for policy discussion". After Finland and Sweden submitted their applications to join NATO, more than 50 well-known Austrian security experts, scientists and diplomats jointly called on the government to "maintain an open attitude towards Austria's security policy" because "Russia's war against Ukraine has called into question the guarantee of neutrality and security."
But whether it is inconceivable or not, as long as "neutrality or not" remains a "no-go policy discussion", Austria will not leave "neutral Europe" for a while and a half.
What about Ireland?
Defence Minister Simon Covini said Ireland needed to be more involved in international security issues but did not think it would abandon neutrality any time soon. Source: Sky News
As mentioned earlier, Ireland was originally a "temporary neutral country" on the second day of the second world war, and nato received an invitation to join the Union as soon as it was established after the war, but the country insisted that "Northern Ireland is Irish territory" and refused to join the military alliance including britain, so its "permanent neutrality" status was actually a large part of "gambling with Britain".
But Ireland is far from the war in Ukraine, the urgency of joining NATO to enhance its sense of security is limited, and the Fact that the United Kingdom is still very active in NATO makes it "unhappy", so it prefers to join the EU, and even participate in the EU Joint Battle Group (because the UNITED Kingdom has left the EU, joining the EU can cause trouble for the Uk), and is not eager to join NATO, although Russia is unlikely to react strongly to Ireland's application to join NATO, but NATO is not in a hurry to "expand westward".
After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, there was some debate in Ireland about whether to remain neutral, but it was far less enthusiastic than that of several other European neutral countries, and The Irish Neutral Martin earlier summarized Ireland's future neutrality as "not politically neutral, militarily neutral". It follows that Ireland will at least not voluntarily and completely break away from the "neutral Europe" map.
In short, the war in Ukraine would shrink the territory of "neutral Europe" by a large margin, but it would not lead to its complete demise, and "neutralism" still has deep roots and support in Europe, especially around russia's borders.