Through modern meteorology, we learn more about the weather and have the ability to predict it, which can undoubtedly shock our ancestors. But science has only brought us here: What will the weather look like next Tuesday? This remains a secret to some extent.
Forecasting is a summary of the existing understanding and limitations of human beings. We looked up at the sky, we studied the data that the Doppler weather radar transmitted back to the screen, and we looked into the black box. Greg Carbin said: "We know that the movement of the sun and the earth creates seasonal variations. We also know that the Northern Hemisphere is in the middle of winter, and the Southern Hemisphere is hot in the summer. Implicit in this is a cyclical change. If we take a step back, zoom in: it will be cold in the winter, hot in the summer. You know, if only it were that simple. The devil is hidden in the details. ”
Under the blessing of stability, the constant rebirth, development and disappearance of weather can be a mirror image of human reverie, and meteorological changes are detected and experienced through the senses of living things. MacArthur Genius Award winner Lauren Ridneys, in "Lightning and Thunder: The Past, Present and Future of the Weather", uses human story samples, through copperplate photographic gravure etching and photosensitive resin process, to collage the long tug-of-war between us and nature that is sometimes harmonious and sometimes conflicting, exploring how deeply human beings should intervene in nature under the complexity and uncertainty. Riddnis pointed out that humans will realize their own ideas according to the weather, and the weather can ignore it, can assist, and will also regurgitate.
The tension between humans and the weather for thousands of years is so rich that many efforts have been made to predict the weather, but to this day, they still attract and confuse everyone with uncertainty, possibility and complexity. Ridnis found that since the Middle Ages, people have successively published almanacs to record the movement of the sun, moon and stars. But the old lunar book's formula for weather predictions is still surprising. People stubbornly believe that the Old Lunar Book is 80% accurate as they advertise.
When he visited the headquarters of the Old Lunar Book, Riddnis saw the complicated weather forecast calculation formula in their black box and couldn't help but feel a chaotic beauty. In Ridnis's view, in fact, this whole set of forecasting methods is very interesting, even a little poetic. But in fact, its crazy calculation steps are actually not accurate, and it makes Ridnis feel that we really don't know anything about the weather, and this "superstition" is exactly what we are trying to control the uncertain weather.
The following is an excerpt from Lightning and Thunder: The Past, Present and Future of the Weather, with the title added by the editors, with the permission of the publisher. The illustrations used in this article are from the book.
Lightning and Thunder: The Past, Present, and Future of the Weather, by Lauren Redness, translated by Luo, Beijing United Publishing Company, May 2022.
The original author 丨 [American] Lauren Ridneys
On the morning of June 10, 1953, grocery store owner Charles Golub took his 4-year-old daughter Robin out for a ride. He wanted to see what the tornado had left behind after yesterday's tornado hit his hometown of Worcester, Massachusetts. The tornado swirled through the city of Worcester for about an hour and a half, sometimes reaching 1.6 kilometers wide. The disaster killed 94 people and left 15,000 people homeless.
Some of the ruins were even blown 160 kilometers away, as far away as Eastham at Cape Cod.
The little girl was now an adult, and only sporadic memories of that morning and the scene she saw through the car window were scattered memories. "I remember the jagged fractures in the wood, and the overturned roof, and one of the walls of the house was scraped down, and I could see the bedroom when I looked inside. There are (blown out) mattresses on the street. There was a little girl of twelve or thirteen that we knew, and she was closing the window when the tornado came, and she leaned out of the window, and as a result, the window was suddenly slammed by the wind, breaking her neck. I remember the adults talking about it. ”
On June 6 of that year, before summer had even begun, the temperature in Worcester had climbed to an unusual 32°C, and in the next few days it quickly dropped to around 23°C and 24°C. The Midwest is being tested by thunderstorms; A barrage of tornadoes hit Michigan and Ohio. As the storm system advanced eastward, the Weather Bureau at Boston Logan Airport foresaw the possibility of tornado activity in Massachusetts. However, the term "tornado" has never appeared in weather forecasts in New England. Officials feared it would lead to panic, and after careful discussion, they decided not to issue a warning. On Tuesday, when the tornado circled into the city of Worcester, the public had no time to prepare.
But one publication claims it accurately predicts the arrival of a tornado, The Old Farmer's Almanac, published every September, which contains year-round weather forecasts for the United States. A 1953 edition published a forecast that predicted the weather in the first week of June in the form of the old lunar book's signature rhyming verses: "The wind is blowing, and the misfortune is not alone." According to the book's predictions, the weather would become "bad" afterwards.
After the tornado, readers wrote letters praising the Old Lunar Book. Half a century later, the magazine's editors will still quote the phrase "wind blows, it's not a lone wolf" to show the publication's astonishing accuracy in weather forecasts.
Make an almanac that is "not only practical, but also has a sense of humor that doesn't bother people."
The Old Lunar Book has been weather forecasting for more than 220 years, earlier than trains and electricity. The first issue of the magazine was published in 1792, when there were only 15 states in the United States of America, and the president was George Washington.
Since the Middle Ages, people have successively published almanacs to record the movement of the sun, moon and stars. In general, these books include tidal schedules, sunrise and sunset times, and weather forecasts for the new year. Before the Bible was printed, Johannes Gutenberg had printed an almanac. In the homes of early American colonists, the only books that could usually be found were the Bible and the Almanac. The almanac provides the most important guidance on planting, harvesting, and how to raise livestock. In addition, the almanac offers family medicines, as well as a schedule of stagecoaches, important roads, and the names of innkeepers along the way. According to the late Richard Anders of the American Society for the Study of Antiquities (who was also the compiler of the Society's vast collection of calendars): "If the calendar has an all-encompassing theme, it's how to live your life in peace. ”
Illustration of the inside page of Lightning and Thunder: The Past, Present, and Future of the Weather.
The calendar page of the Old Lunar Book contains a series of commonly used information, while adding novel elements. Even the first book (the 1793 forecast published in 1792) was published on the title page stating that the book was a "new revision." The Old Lunar Book is dotted with aphorisms and witty remarks that change the all-knowing and boring New England kiss that Benjamin Franklin had in Poor Richard's Almanack (which was discontinued 34 years ago). The reader's admonitions in Poor Richard's Almanac include "fish, like guests, will stink after three days" and "impatient to eat hot tofu." In the Old Lunar Book, "Poor Ned" provides the admonition that "love and poverty cannot be combined." Both almanacs espouse the virtues of frugality, praising the benefits of marriage and prudence.
The promise of the Old Lunar Book is to make an almanac that is "not only practical, but also has an uninvolving sense of humor." To this day, it still has a pre-made hole in the upper left corner that can be hung up and looked through. As former editor Judson Hale put it: "It's not a book on the shelf. In recent years, the annual print circulation of the Old Lunar Book has been about 3 million copies, and they have opened social accounts such as Facebook and Twitter, and developed some mobile applications.
Illustration of the inside page of Lightning and Thunder: The Past, Present, and Future of the Weather.
In the 1806 almanac, the founder and editor Robert E. Lee Robert B. Thomas wrote to his readers: "Nothing in the world is as tight as the weather that catches everyone's attention." He listed 7 "most important indicators" for weather forecasting: the weather conditions before that, the visible color of the sky, the shape of the clouds, the direction of the wind, the wind force, the temperature change, and the visible color of the sun and the moon. Thomas managed to obtain a "secret weather forecast formula". This formula is still hidden in a black tin jar, preserved in the office of the old lunar book's dublin town headquarters in New Hampshire. It is said that the Old Lunar Book still relies on this formula to predict the weather. Thomas can tell his readers what the weather will be like next, say, "it's remarkable for the season."
Later, the editors' style became more concise and concise. Robb Sagendorph bought the Old Lunar Book in 1939. Under his management, the Old Lunar Book used typical expressions such as "mild," "wet," or "frosty" when forecasting the weather for the entire country for the new season.
When one reader wrote asking for a more detailed forecast, Sagendorf replied: "You wrote asking about the number of snowflakes that landed in New England in December 1947. Our employees reported their statistics, and the results were impressive, but not accurate. The reason is that the snowflakes that fall on the eastern side of mansfield near the town of Stowe are mixed with some snowflakes blown from the ground (these numbers have been counted). I'm sorry. ”
Storm predictor, also known as leech barometer. (Illustration of the inner page of Lightning and Thunder: The Past, Present and Future of Weather)
Sagendorf claims that his forecasts are 80 percent accurate. In a 1966 report in Life magazine, he described the techniques he used: he started by recording a series of weather cycles, including sunspots, hurricanes, and storms, the 35-year Bruckner cycle, the Biblical 40-day cycle, and a selection of highly regarded axioms ("cold winter comes for decades"). He then divided the year into units in order: spring, summer, autumn, hurricane, northeast wind, cold weather, blizzard, snow storm, and tornado. He also looks at ocean temperatures, storm trajectories and average weather conditions. Finally, he refers to the mysterious data from the mysterious Book of Days, the manual that has been passed down from 1792 to the present day—a secret formula.
Sagendorf is very humble about his achievements: "It's not science. Honestly, I don't know what this is. Still, he worked with astronomers at Harvard and later hired a NASA scientist to work as a full-time weather forecaster. Under the management of Sagendorf and two editors who followed him, the Old Lunar Book "modified the old formulas of the past through the most advanced technological means and modern scientific calculations of the day". However, Sagendorf also noticed that the Old Lunar Book had a faint hint of fortune-telling: "I am very sure that something as historic as the Old Lunar Book must have some mysterious qualities, and no matter how hard we try to get rid of this atmosphere of fortune-telling, it will always exist." ”
The Old Lunar Book replaces weather "forecasts" with weather "signs"
On the page of the Old Lunar Book in November 1963 (written more than a year ago), in the thin column to the right of the list of tides and moon phases, there is a "calendar essay" for that month. The prose tells a secret story that reads like a parable.
A squire smoked a pipe and chatted with his son.
A crowned blue crow croaked:
"Disaster, disaster."
The squire enjoys the beautiful autumn sun and the slowly falling leaves.
"This is not a world that has passed."
When the squire began to talk about his good fortune,
The crowned blue crow flew away.
"Everything was so calm,
You seem to be able to
Hear the world try to stay the same. ”
As the pages of the calendar turned, as we approached the third week of November, the squire's son lamented the discomfort of being born in a troubled world. He told his father, "The night is coming," a phrase that happened to be written next to November 22, the day when John F. Kennedy was killed. Assassination of President F. Kennedy — "Perhaps accompanied by murder." With 8 days left in November, the Old Lunar Book predicts chaotic weather: a storm, rain, snow, wind and fog. It was also celebrated on November 25, when John F. Kennedy Jr. F. Kennedy wrote a note on his birthday: "There are two full moon days this month— beware of harm prevention." ”
Illustration of the inside page of Lightning and Thunder: The Past, Present, and Future of the Weather.
In 1970, Rob Sagendorf died, and his nephew Judson Hale took over as editor-in-chief, becoming the 12th editor-in-chief of the 182-year history of the Old Lunar Book. Hale had been working here for 12 years before that, writing letters from readers. ("The vast majority of readers' letters are boring, so I'm going to write something interesting.") I sent the letters to the person in charge of printing, and he thought they were all written in a decent way. Since 2000, the Old Lunar Book has given Hale an emeritus position, but he will still come to the office. One day in November 2011, Hale, in his early 80s, arrived at the office wearing a brightly coloured plaid shirt, corduroy pants and a tweed jacket with his belongings in a wicker basket.
Judson Hale: "We didn't imply that the assassination of President Kennedy happened, but a lot of people interpreted it that way. People write to us from all over the world. Kennedy was shot on a Friday, and the short article on our calendar reads: 'The night is coming, and maybe murder is coming.' I asked Ben Rice, who wrote this essay, and he said, 'Oh, I just thought November was fun, so I wrote it.' I don't know why. Some people said, 'Maybe the atmosphere was full of uneasiness, and then he wrote like that.' Who knows. ”
In 1858, the young trial lawyer Abraham Lincoln was replaced by William Lincoln. Duff" Armstrong defended, who was charged with murder. One witness sworn to prove that on the night of August 29 last year, he had seen Armstrong kill the victim with the help of the light of the full moon. In court, Lincoln asked witnesses to read an entry in the August 29, 1857 almanac, and presented the page to the jury. "The moon is low." The Old Lunar Book reads. Lincoln explained that the scientific evidence lay here: there wasn't enough light that day for witnesses to see the murder. Eventually, the defendant was acquitted.
During World War II, a German spy was captured by the FBI at the Pennsylvania station in New York, carrying in his pocket a copy of the Old Lunar Book from 1942. Apparently, the U.S. Censorship Bureau was very sensitive to the Germans' access to classified intelligence. Based on the Code of War time Practices for the American Press, they demanded that the Old Lunar Book replace weather "forecasts" with weather "signs."
Illustration of the inside page of Lightning and Thunder: The Past, Present, and Future of the Weather.
The editors of the Old Lunar Book repeat these stories over and over again, taking pride in the history of the journal and their trustworthy reputation, but with a half-joking character. When it was said that the Nazis had indeed used the old lunar book forecasts, Rob Sagendorf reportedly replied: "Maybe they are using it, after all, they lost the war." In retelling Lincoln's story, Judson Hale added a detail that the defendant, who was sentenced innocent because of the Old Lunar Book, confessed to the murder he had committed before dying.
Judson Hale: "The question I get asked most often is: 'What will the weather be like in winter?'" The next question is: "Why is the Old Lunar Book still being released and doing well?" I don't know the answers to either question. (For the first question) I like to answer that the weather in winter will be very winter, and then spring will come. So my answer is always accurate. However, I will soon become serious and provide them with our forecasts. As for why this publication has lasted so long, I think it is after so many years that people have begun to think of the Old Lunar Book as an old friend in a changing world. What I want to make clear is that every year, the content of the Old Lunar Book is completely new. But its typography, its binding, the method we compile, its cover—all remain the same. This reassures the reader.
"I had a copy on my own breakfast table. I've also often wondered, 'What will the weather look like today?' I'll look at it and get guidance. Ah, tomorrow is the full moon. This book will tell you what a late star is, when the sun sets, and when it rises. You think, 'Oh my God, we live in such an orderly world.' Maybe life isn't as confusing as my chaotic daily routine. When the Old Lunar Book was first published, it was a bit like Playboy—I mean, it was like any other magazine, like The New York Times. People buy it when they notice it, no different from buying other magazines from a newspaper carriage that comes once a week. Can you imagine the days without electric lights? At this time of year, as soon as it gets dark, it immediately becomes pitch black. You have to light a candle or a kerosene lamp. The Old Lunar Book will tell you when it gets dark. ”
Original author /[American] Lauren Ridneys
Excerpts/Ann also
Edit/Rodong
Introduction part proofreading / Liu Baoqing