The United States and Europe strongly support Ukraine, and when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is inflaming the fire, NATO's backyard is on fire, and the Aegean crisis is intensifying. The situation has become tense to the point that military personnel on both sides have been talking harshly.
Recently, the retired Greek general Giannis Egolfopoulos threatened to blow up an important bridge in Istanbul. Not to be outdone, the country's retired general Erdogan Karagosh said that war between Turkey and Greece is inevitable.
Although both NATO allies, turkey and Greece have a long history of contradictions, in addition to the previously boiling gas exploration dispute in the eastern Mediterranean, the more serious conflict between the two sides is the 12 Aegean islands belonging to Greece on the Turkish mainland.
The closest of these islands is only 2 km from mainland Turkey and 600 km from mainland Greece. Greece's attempt to militarize the islands immediately drew a backlash from Turkey.
Speaking of these 12 islands, Turkey is also dumb and eats yellow lian, and there is suffering. The ownership of these islands begins with World War I a hundred years ago.
In World War I, Ottoman Turkey sided with Italy, ceding all islands beyond 3 nautical miles to Italy under a treaty signed after the war. After World War II, Italy ceded the islands to Greece, and the treaty signed at the time made it clear that the islands were given to Greece on the premise that Greece could not militarize the islands.
Two world wars, two treaties – the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 and the Treaty of Paris in 1947 – the 12 islands on the mainland that had already belonged to Greece made Turkey feel like a fish in the throat. However, territorial sovereignty disputes do not exist. The debate now is over whether Greece has the authority to militarize the islands.
The Turkish side believes that the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty has made it clear that Greece should maintain its commitment to demilitarization. However, Greece did not talk about the Paris Treaty signed under the mediation of the Soviet Union that year, but said that it used the "Charter of the United Nations", claiming that the provisions of the "Charter of the United Nations" on the "right to self-defense" gave Greece the right to arm the islands in the Aegean Sea.
Turkey states that the arming of the islands poses a threat to Turkish territory, while Greece believes that Turkey's formation of additional "Aegean" forces in addition to its NATO forces and the deployment of landing forces on the Turkish mainland on the adjacent islands are a potential threat to Greek territory. In short, it is that the public is justified, the mother says that the mother is reasonable, and no one can be persuaded.
Trust between Turkey and Greece was long since worn out in the Cyprus conflict of the last century. Therefore, the attitude of both sides on this matter is unprecedentedly resolute. Greece has been using its de jure sovereign superiority in placing civilians on those islands in order to strengthen its territorial claims to those islands. Turkish nationalists refer to Greece's actions as "occupation," and subconsciously, the islands are supposed to be Turkish territory.
As for Erdogan, it is clear that the Paris Treaty of that year is the standard, and he is extremely vigilant about any military deployment on these islands.
In early June, during the Ephes 2022 military exercise, Erdogan issued a strong warning to Greece, demanding that "Greece stop deploying its forces on demilitarized islands and act in accordance with international agreements."
Erdogan made it clear that it is gradually implementing the action of protecting Turkey's border on the 30-kilometer-deep security line with firm determination, and that no one will be allowed to build a "terrorist corridor" on the Turkish border. Erdogan threatened that Turkey would not relinquish its rights in the Aegean Sea and "does not rule out the same deployment of arms on these islands if necessary." ”
This means that if Greece continues to militarize the islands, the Aegean Sea will most likely see two NATO countries showing off their muscles and even fighting each other.
It is worth noting that in all the disputes between Turkey and Greece, Europe and the United States will never be brainless on the side of Greece. In terms of arms sales, Greece will be fine if it buys an S-300, and Turkey will be sanctioned by the West when it buys an S-400. Turkey was struggling to buy the F-16, but France signed a large military order with Greece for 24 Rafale fighter jets.
The two NATO countries, France and Greece, also signed additional defense agreements, declaring that they would launch joint defenses under external threats. It is self-evident who the joint defense will defend against. In addition, the United States has also accelerated its deployment at the Greek naval base in Alexandria, which is only 20 kilometers away from the Turkish border.
In the application of Finland and Sweden to join NATO some time ago, the West once again ignored Turkey's demands. Turkey and the West are drifting apart. The controversy over the Aegean islands could be a potential tipping point for Turkey's direct conflict with the West.
In the event of any armed conflict between Turkey and Greece, Ankara will be dealing not only with Greece, but also with the entire West, led by the United States.