On June 13, the 2022 European Satory Defense Exhibition (Eurosatory) opened in Paris, France. As the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to oscillate and spread in Europe, the exhibition has also added a lot of "gunpowder flavor".
At the exhibition, various defense companies "heard the wind" and used the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as the application scenario of the product, and even listed examples in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to show the effect of the product. At the opening ceremony, French President Emmanuel Macron also gave a 25-minute speech starting with "4 months, a high-intensity war has swept across the land of Europe". Not surprisingly, this speech is full of keywords such as "defense industry", "cooperation", "European defense autonomy", "European defense autonomy" and so on.
The website of the Palais Elysées in France published the full text of Macron's speech at the European Defense Exhibition, and pointed out its main points: "The war has returned to Europe, which reminds us of the central role of the defense industry in safeguarding national and European sovereignty." ”
Third major arms exporter enters the "wartime economy"
In Macron's speech, there was a particularly "stimulating" appeal: "We are entering a wartime economy." There is no doubt that Macron emphasized this because he hoped that the importance and urgency of the defense industry would become a consensus.
In the speech, Macron's emphasis even has some "nagging": "Europe should concentrate on protecting itself, which requires a stronger European defense industry, and more importantly, countries need to increase investment in national defense, promote the innovation and product iteration of the defense industry, meet the needs of the military faster, and give a more competitive "offer"; Europe should strengthen cooperation within the EU and build partnerships around the world. Spending a lot of money to buy weapons and equipment from overseas is not a good idea. We should spend a lot of money on the European autonomy strategy without national security and no strategic autonomy; The Franco-German cooperation provides a "landmark" success story for European collective defence. As Commander-in-Chief of the French Armed Forces, I have set out to make up for the shortcomings in terms of materiel, ammunition, and combat capabilities, and to restart the dialogue between the state and the defense industry..."
In his speech, Macron did not forget to mention the "financiers" of the French defense industry in recent years, such as Greece, Croatia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries and regions, in the name of "cooperation", and promised to increase investment returns to these customers, including cooperation in military technology. Pictured here is the French Dassault Mirage 2000 fighter jet equipped by the UAE Air Force.
From Macron's long speech at the European Defense Exhibition, it is not difficult to see France's ambitions in military construction and defense industry in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It can be said that he has already sounded the clarion call for the "world's third largest arms exporter", hoping that in this round of the tide of the times of "arming oneself internally and exporting military trade to the outside world", he can "become bigger, stronger, and create brilliant again" in this round of the times.
In addition, compared with Germany's military increases after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the French government launched a military increase plan before Macron was elected president, and its military budget for 2022 reached 41 billion euros ($43 billion). The French government's current plan is that by 2025, the military budget will reach 50 billion euros. All this is a positive factor for the French defense industry.
When it comes to France's defense giants, perhaps the first thing that comes to mind is Dassault. But as this picture shows, in the fuselage of the Dassault Rafale fighter, there is another giant Thales hidden, whose business is concentrated in the fields of airborne and avionics equipment.
However, in addition to the "home" of the European Defense Exhibition, many French defense companies are being criticized by "Russia". Recently, a number of news and NGO websites have published reports from Ukrainian media and organizations, revealing the equipment export and technical cooperation between French defense companies such as THALES and Russia in recent years.
The Website of the Ukrainian NGO Agency "Discolose" published an article titled "The War in Ukraine: How France Ships Weapons to Russia by 2020," detailing the endless arms trade between France and Russia from the Hollande era to the Macron era.
According to the disclosure, the Russian T-72 main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles damaged in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict were found in the French Thales Company's "Catherine" FC thermal imaging camera.
Documents from the French Defense and National Security Secretariat SGDSN, which is responsible for defense and security policy, also show that France has issued 76 export licenses for military equipment to Russia since 2015. According to the latest report of the French parliament on arms exports, the total value of the exported equipment amounted to 152 million euros, although the report did not indicate the specific types of weapons exported.
Combined with the above disclosures, the date of production of these French electronic devices is 2016, and the military equipment license issued by France to Russia in that year can also be explained: even after the first round of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia because of the Crimea incident in 2014, French defense companies are still providing equipment for Russia.
Confidential documents in 2016 show that an important product exported to Russia by French defense companies is infrared equipment. The collaboration began a decade ago and has not been interrupted since the events in Crimea in 2014. The documents also show that French companies have been quite trustworthy in providing after-sales service to Russia.
The "disclosure" website said that from Hollande to Macron, successive French governments have taken advantage of a loophole in western sanctions against Russia - that is, the contracts signed before the sanctions decision may be retained and continue to be implemented as agreed, including subsequent after-sales support upgrade services. That is to say, as long as the French government does not suspend the issuance of export licenses, the sale between the two sides can continue.
According to the results of the "Disclosure" website, Thales and Safran, two defense companies in which the French government holds a major stake, are the main beneficiaries of France's arms exports to Russia.
Improvements to the T-80, T-90, T-72 main battle tanks and French equipment on other Russian military vehicles.
According to the data released by Disclosure, the main products exported by the two French defense giants to Russia are infrared/night vision equipment, navigation and other avionics equipment, specifically including Thales' "Catherine FC" and "Catherine XP", Safran's Sagem 'MATIS STD' and Thales's joint venture company Sofradir, which are mainly used for T-72, Ground equipment such as the T-90 and T-80BVM, as well as some military helicopter modernization upgrades.
In addition, there are the "Tacan" navigation system (TACAN), the Sigma 95N navigation system, the latest cockpit display and HUD head-up display for the Su-30 and MiG-29 fighter jets, as well as the multi-mounted "Topowl" helmet monitor.
For exports to Russia, French defense companies have not hidden it. For example, on the promotional page of the Sigma95N composite inertial navigation system product from Saqim, the Su-30 occupies a prominent position.
Some Ukrainian media and institutions are "in the throat" because the military trade between French defense companies and Russia not only began a decade ago, but continued after the crimean events of 2014, and even expanded. In response, some Ukrainian NGOs said they were filing lawsuits against these French defense companies, calling for "Europe to be on our side when Ukrainians are dying for European values." ”。
On the equipment nameplate in Russia's war-damaged equipment, the production date of 2016 appeared together with the French "Thales", triggering this public opinion "trial" of French defense companies.
But for the French government and defense companies, these public opinion "trials" are almost insignificant. For the current French government and French defense companies, the more pressing problem is to maintain the stability of the supply chain and solve the problem of insufficient capacity. According to Le Monde, France's Defence Procurement Agency (DGA) is considering a draft law that would allow companies to requisition civilian equipment or manufacture weapons and equipment in civilian factories.
The United States is reflecting: Why is it so difficult to increase production?
Coincidentally, the US defense industry on the other side of the Atlantic is also suffering from insufficient production capacity and difficulties in increasing production. Some senators even proposed that US President Biden exercise the "National Defense Production Act", requiring industry to immediately invest resources to make "stingers" and give priority to ensuring the supply of parts and components for weapons such as "stingers".
Although the previous early reading series has reported that there are widespread delivery delays and production declines in US defense companies, what has touched many parties in the United States this time and reflected on "why it can't be built for a while" is not B-21, F-35A and other "big objects", but the individual equipment urgently needed by Ukraine today: "Stinger" anti-aircraft missiles and "Javelin" anti-tank missiles.
The United States "assisted" the Stinger man-portable air defense missiles (STINGOs) to the Afghan "mujahideens" The "Stinger" became "famous in World War I" in the Soviet War of Afghanistan, so that more than 30 years later, the "Stinger" is still the key weapon of the United States to ukrainian military aid.
Both the Stinger and the Javelin are mainly portable, and they are powerful "individual soldier" weapons on the battlefield that are "small and broad" and counter low-altitude flying gunships, attack aircraft, tanks and other targets, and are naturally high consumables with a consumption of at least a thousand on the battlefield.
By mid-to-late April, the United States had "aided" more than 1,400 sets of Stingers and 5,500 sets of Javelins for Ukraine. But just when the Pentagon was about to "replenish inventory", the manufacturers Raytheon Technology Company and Loma Company said that they could not build so much for a while, and it would take at least 2 years to increase production.
The Stinger MANPADS is a half-century old object, and some parts suppliers have long ceased production. The picture shows the "Stinger" During the launch, the booster pushes the projectile out of the launch tube and separates, and after reaching a safe distance, the solid rocket engine of the "Stinger" missile is ignited again.
"Stinger" manufacturer Raytheon Technology Company said that the US Department of Defense has not purchased "Stinger" for 18 years, coupled with the continuous retirement of "Stinger" in recent years, hoping to replace the new man-portable air defense missile in 2028. So Raytheon Technologies has only one plant in Arizona that is still producing Stinger at a low rate to meet orders from unnamed overseas customers in July 2021.
Even if the U.S. Army now arrogantly gives a new order for $624 million and 1,300 Stinger missiles, Raytheon Technologies can only respond: some components on the Stinger missile have been discontinued, and the electronic components in the missile seeker must be redesigned and produced, so the production increase of the Stinger cannot be achieved in the short term, and it is expected to wait at least until 2023-2024.
The U.S. Army's new $624 million "Stinger" order with Raytheon Technologies includes not only the money to buy missiles, but also engineering support clauses, as well as the modernization of key components of Stinger and the test equipment and support needed to accelerate production.
Biden visits The Lowmar Company's "Javelin" production line in Troy, Alabama.
In the production of "Javelin" anti-tank missiles, In addition to Raytheon technology, another manufacturer, Loma, also said in an interview with CBS News that if the production of "Javelin" missiles is increased from the current annual output of 2100 to 4000 per year, it may take a year or two to achieve.
The reason why the production line of the "Javelin" cannot increase production at full speed is similar to that of the "Stinger" - although the "Javelin" has not reached the point where the old components have been discontinued, the more than 200 microchips and semiconductor components required on each missile need to rely on a number of subcontractors in Asia to supply, and the current global lack of "core", "Javelin" is naturally not spared.
What was once a "democracy arsenal" has become a small workshop?
In the face of the production capacity problems of the two giants of the US defense industry in the two types of missiles, the voice of the US government is long overdue. The Pentagon has called intensive meetings of defense executives to assess the ability of companies to increase production, but companies still say they are still struggling to deal with supply chain and labor issues related to the COVID-19 epidemic. Later, Alan Lord, the former deputy secretary of defense responsible for procurement and maintenance, also said "bitterly" that the production capacity problems of "stingers" and "javelins" actually exposed the deeper fundamental problems of the US defense industry, especially the suppliers of parts and components for such weapons and ammunition may come from "hostile countries" and the supply chain may be broken at any time.
Alan Lorde suggested that on the one hand, the Defense Production Act should be used to incentivize manufacturers to expand production, and on the other hand, the technical restrictions on Us allies such as Australia should be relaxed, and licenses for the manufacture of weapons and ammunition such as "Stinger" and "Javelin" should be transferred to them.
An opinion piece by Aviation Week analyzed that industrial capacity was very important in order to cope with the surge in demand for weapons and equipment in wartime. Precision weapons such as the Stinger and Javelin are consumed in large quantities, and the losses of other combat platforms are staggering. But the United States is no longer the "arsenal of democracy" that Roosevelt called in 1940, and the fiery scene of the surge in the number of defense products between 1938 and 1943 is now difficult to reproduce. Even weapons such as the Javelin or Stinger take years to increase production... Perhaps the "arms workshop of democracy" is a better portrayal of america today.
The term "arsenal of democracy" comes from President Roosevelt's "fireside speech" during World War II, expressing the full confidence of the United States at that time, and the American industry at that time also had the strength and production capacity to achieve American assistance to the Allies.
The commentary said that this is not the result of complying with economic laws: the US government has not promised defense companies such as Raytheon Technologies and Loma that it can maintain the long-term operation of production lines, nor has it paid for maintaining "excess" capacity. Then, these defense companies naturally have no incentive to retain excess capacity. In order to have a beautiful financial report, companies need to be careful, and timely "optimize" or even cut the production line of non-demand products according to the order situation, which is what Wall Street is happy to see.
Even if US President Biden visits the front line of production of The Javelin missile of Loma, it will not solve the problem of shortage of parts and materials.
When the Pentagon sent all the "stingers" and "javelins" in its inventory to Ukraine, and then turned around and took the dollar to find enterprises to place orders and pick up goods, it was "shocked into a cold sweat" to find that it was too difficult to increase production, and the schedule was scheduled to a year or two later. Even if the "National Defense Production Law" is sacrificed, I am afraid that there will be no solution to the situation of "cooking without rice" for a while.
This is precisely the origin of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict that has forced the US military and political circles and defense industry to rise a wave of "reflection". After this reflection, will the U.S. defense industry really change (such as no longer subcontracting some microchips and semiconductor components to overseas manufacturers), or will it continue to follow the "economic laws"? We continue to observe.