Text/Leju Finance Li Shanshan
After nearly a year of rumors, the topic of "BYD supplying batteries to Tesla" was once again on the top of the hot search list.
On June 8, Lian Yubo, executive vice president of BYD Group, revealed in an interview with the host of CGTN that BYD will provide battery products for Tesla, and said that BYD respects Tesla, and he is also good friends with Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
It is worth mentioning that as of press time, the CGTN host has deleted the bydir interview video previously released by BYD. In response to the fact that "BYD will supply batteries to Tesla", Tesla relevant personnel responded, "We have not heard this information." ”
In fact, in August last year, it was reported that BYD will supply blade batteries to Tesla in the second quarter of this year. Although there is no real hammer, BYD's first public comment on cooperation matters has also added more possibilities for real cooperation in the future.
Former "wrongdoers" have now become "good friends", in fact, they are taking what they need. For Tesla, it is to reduce costs, meet the needs of capacity and balance supply; For BYD, it is the demand for rapidly increasing battery shipments.
Affected by the news, the Ningde era (300750. SZ) share price fell. On June 9, its stock price fell by 6.23%, the largest one-day decline in the past month, closing at 431.35 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1,005.4 billion yuan, evaporating 66.8 billion yuan from the previous day.
On the other side, BYD (002594. SZ) is in the limelight, sales all the way to the same time, stock price, market value continued to climb, to June 10 its total market value exceeded the trillion mark, becoming the first domestic car company to join the trillion club.
Behind the prosperity, ISD is difficult to hide the "hard wound", profitability shortcomings, lack of brand power, coupled with the proud blade battery frequent spontaneous combustion, as well as the "sewage door" incident, BYD in becoming the "King of Di", there are still many problems to be solved behind.
"Bits" cooperate, each taking what is needed
All along, BYD has been regarded as the biggest threat to Tesla's electric vehicle supremacy, and the relationship between the two has long taken the route of mutual hatred and mutual ridicule. Today, the two "wrongdoers" have frequently spread the news of "holding hands" and are infinitely close to the official announcement, in fact, because there is an irresistible temptation of interests.
On the one hand, for BYD, it is the appeal to quickly increase battery shipments.
Public information shows that at the beginning of 2020, BYD split its parts business and established 5 Fordy-related companies, one of which is Fordi battery. Since then, BYD's battery business has begun to operate independently, carrying out power battery external supply business, and the external supply products are mainly "blade batteries" launched in 2020.
Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, once said that blade batteries have begun to supply to the whole industry, and almost every car brand that people can think of is negotiating cooperation with Fordy Battery. In the future, blade batteries will be successively installed in new energy models of mainstream brands at home and abroad.
However, contrary to expectations, BYD's battery supply road is not going well.
Since 2021, a number of BYD battery external supply models have been launched, including Didi D1, Hongqi E-QM5, Changan Ford Mustang Mach-E and so on. But these three models are not popular models, only Ford Mustang Mach-E has had a large-scale supply of BYD batteries, but it is equipped with BYD NCM811 ternary lithium batteries, not the blade batteries that BYD most wants to sell. Among them, Didi D1 was removed from the shelves due to the supervision of the Didi Chuxing APP, and a large number of online car owners once returned to protect their rights.
In addition, BYD has also developed Customers such as Mercedes-Benz parent company Daimler, Toyota Motor, FAW Hongqi, Zhongtong Bus, and Changan. On the news side, BYD is also expected to cooperate with Weilai Automobile and Volkswagen.
It can be seen that BYD has been working hard to expand the "battlefield" of its power battery supply, but the results do not seem to be large.
According to the "Global Power Battery Installed Capacity Database" released by the Institute of High Industry And Industry (GGII), the global power battery installed capacity reached 94.16GWh in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 108% year-on-year, of which BYD ranked fourth with an installed capacity of 9.99GWh, which not only lagged behind the Ningde era, LG and Panasonic, but also only one-third of the Ningde era.
After entering Tesla's supply chain, it will help BYD further attract more domestic and foreign new energy vehicle companies, which is expected to catch up with competitors at that time.
On the other hand, for Tesla, it is to reduce costs, meet the needs of capacity and balance supply.
At present, Tesla already has a number of battery suppliers, of which South Korea's LG and Japan's Panasonic mainly provide ternary lithium batteries, while lithium iron phosphate batteries are supplied by domestic battery giant Ningde Times.
Musk revealed on the third quarter of 2021 earnings call that the company will move to cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries worldwide, especially the Model 3 and ModelY models.
At the same time, according to Musk's production capacity target, Tesla's production capacity will reach 20 million by 2030, 20 times that of 2021, which makes Tesla's demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries surge.
In order to meet the production capacity, Tesla needs to introduce more power battery suppliers. And generally speaking, new energy vehicle companies will generally choose a number of companies in the supply of similar batteries to ensure the stability of the supply chain and weaken the right to speak of suppliers.
If BYD joins, it means that Tesla's supply chain in China will be further diversified and balanced.
Share the "King of Ning" cake
"Bit" joined forces, and the slander was the "big brother" Ningde era of the power battery industry.
At present, Tesla is the largest customer of the Ningde era. In 2021, Tesla purchased a total value of 13.04 billion yuan of power batteries from CATL, contributing 10% of the annual revenue of CATL.
At present, Tesla intends to further expand production of the Shanghai Gigafactory. The Shanghai super factory reached a production capacity of 480,000 units last year, and is expected to further increase to 1 million units after the expansion, which has a clear growth demand for power batteries. At present, only catheters are supplied, BYD is expected to gain a considerable share of the market share from Tesla's Shanghai factory.
Byd's entry means that CATL will no longer be Tesla's only domestic supplier, adversely affecting its status. In addition, some insiders pointed out that because of byder's joining, the bargaining space in Tesla in the Ningde era will be compressed.
Affected by this news, on June 9, the stock price of Ningde Times fell by 6.23%, the largest one-day decline in the past month, closing at 431.35 yuan / share, with a total market value of 1,005.4 billion yuan, evaporating 66.8 billion yuan from the previous day.
In addition to competing for Tesla's order share, in fact, BYD is also the biggest opponent in the domestic market of the Ningde era.
From a technical point of view, CATL is the main supplier of ternary lithium batteries, while BYD is a fan of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Around the technology, the two have more than once had a fierce "mutual intimidation" on topics such as battery acupuncture tests and the performance of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
As one of the earliest power battery companies in China, BYD was once an out-and-out industry leader. Industry statistics show that in 2016, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 69%.
However, this figure dropped sharply to 32% in 2019. At the same time, the market share of ternary lithium batteries with greater energy density soared from 27% to 65%. It was also during that period that the Ningde era relied on its advantages in the field of ternary lithium batteries to surpass BYD to become the boss of power batteries.
Today, with the gradual decline of state subsidies for electric vehicles, the balance of forces in the field of power batteries has also changed. The data shows that in 2021, the domestic power battery loading capacity is 154.5GWh, of which the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries is 74.3GWh, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 79.8GWh, and the lithium iron phosphate battery has completed the anti-overtaking of ternary lithium batteries.
Because of this, BYD has re-emerged from the industry. According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2021, the installed capacity of Cataline Era ranked first among domestic enterprises, accounting for 52.1% of the market; BYD ranked second, with a market share of 16.2%. From January to April 2022, the market rankings of CATL and BYD have not changed, but the gap between the two sides has further narrowed, of which the market share of NINGDE Times has dropped to 47.29%, and bydir's market share has increased to 22.75%.
In addition, from the layout of production capacity, it can also be clearly seen that BYD is catching up with the Ningde era. According to the plan, the battery production capacity of CATL will reach more than 670GWh before 2025, and BYD's battery production capacity in 2025 is also expected to reach about 600GWh, and the production capacity of both sides will be located at the same level.
In the secondary market, BYD has exceeded the trillion market value. On June 10, BYD's stock price trend was strong, once touching as high as 350 yuan / share during the session, and finally closed up 8.19% at 348.8 yuan / share, a record high; The total market value exceeded the trillion mark for the first time, reaching 1,015.4 billion yuan, just one step away from the Ningde era, which surpassed the latest market value of 1,058.2 billion yuan and won the title of "the largest market capitalization company in Shenzhen".
BYD's "hard wound"
Behind the trillion-dollar market value is BYD's recent continuous good news, which has a significant role in boosting its stock price.
According to the data, in May, the company sold 114,900 new energy vehicles, an increase of 250% year-on-year. This achievement ranked first among domestic car companies in the same period, and a significant gap with followers was opened, and tesla sales in China reached 32,000 units after the recovery of production capacity in May, and new forces such as "Wei Xiaoli" recovered to about 10,000 vehicles.
This is also BYD's sales of more than 100,000 vehicles for three consecutive months, and the cumulative sales volume from January to May has exceeded 500,000 vehicles. At the annual results meeting, BYD set a sales target for this year in the range of 1.5 million to 2 million vehicles. From this point of view, BYD may be able to achieve this goal as scheduled.
Although the sales data is eye-catching, it is difficult to hide BYD's "hard injury".
According to the financial report, IND's operating income in the first quarter of 2022 was 66.825 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 808 million yuan.
In terms of gross profit margin, BYD recorded 12.04% in the first quarter, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.72 percentage points from the previous quarter, setting a record low. At the same time, compared with Tesla's gross profit margin of 29.11%, BYD's profitability is not prominent.
The decline in gross profit margin, in addition to the impact of rising raw material prices, is also closely related to BYD's lack of brand power.
It is reported that the main battlefield of BYD's models is in the range of 100,000-300,000 yuan. In the first quarter of 2022, its average sales price was 158,000 yuan, which was still in a low-end position.
At the same time, although BYD has quickly seized the new energy market with its DM-i hybrid system, E3.0 platform and blade battery, it has not yet carried the banner of domestic brands in terms of brand power. At present, BYD relies on Han, Tang and the latest SEAL models to impact the high-end market, but at a price of more than 300,000 yuan, its main models are few.
Bydir released the Denza D9 in mid-May, with a pre-sale price range of 335,000 yuan to 660,000 yuan; the price range of hardcore off-road vehicles listed next year is expected to be 800,000-1.5 million yuan. These two models are an important attempt to upgrade the BYD brand, but they still need to be tested by the market.
In addition, BYD's proud blade battery is said to "never spontaneously combust.". However, since 2022, according to incomplete statistics, BYD has had a total of 7 spontaneous combustion incidents in Guangxi, Shanghai, Fujian, Hainan and other places.
The previous pollution incident of BYD's Changsha plant has not yet followed. Public information shows that BYD and its subsidiaries have been punished many times in Shenzhen, Chengdu, Changsha, Tianjin and other places for environmental protection problems.
At the time of stepping over the trillion market value and rising sales, BYD still has many problems to solve.