U.S. inflation soared, the tariffs on solar energy is tantamount to adding fuel to the fire, exacerbating the cost burden, the current world's Chinese photovoltaic industry will be the cost to the extreme, if you do not use China's solar modules, the biggest damage is the United States' own photovoltaic industry.
On June 6, according to foreign media reports quoting unnamed sources, the White House will announce on Monday that it will not impose any new tariffs on solar energy imports for two years, a move aimed at putting stalled solar projects on track.
As soon as this news came out, the domestic photovoltaic sector rose sharply.
On June 6, the photovoltaic sector was strong throughout the day, Yabo (002323) straight line sealing, Jiejia Weichuang (300724) rose more than 12%, Shanmei International (600546), Jinchen shares (603396), Saiwu Technology (603212), Tuori New Energy (002218) and other shares rose and stopped, Sunshine Power (300274) rose by more than 8%, Trina Solar, JA Technology (002459), Oriental Risheng (300118) and so on.
On May 31, the Biden administration unveiled an updated policy to promote clean energy that would significantly reduce the cost of building wind and solar energy on federal lands.
The U.S. Department of the Interior says rents and related costs for solar and wind projects will fall by about 50 percent as a result. According to the current U.S. solar power generation accounted for less than 3%, there is a large room for improvement in the future.
However, as we all know, 15 of the top 20 global photovoltaic industries are from China. China's photovoltaic patents are 4089, which is 27 times that of the United States.
On June 6, the Wall Street Journal quoted an unnamed person who did not know that due to inflation and renewable energy development pressures, the White House may announce on Monday that it will not impose any new tariffs on solar energy imports for two years.
On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo said it "could make sense" to remove tariffs on some goods and help curb the worst inflation in the U.S. in 40 years.
Since the opening of the anti-circumvention investigation, the pressure on public opinion in the US photovoltaic industry has been escalating, and the US Photovoltaic Industry Association, 19 governors and 85 members of Congress have jointly complained in May that "the anti-circumvention investigation has brought an unprecedented huge crisis to the US photovoltaic industry and more than 230,000 jobs".
At the same time, considering inflationary pressures and renewable energy development demands, the probability of loosening the PV trade policy of the United States against Southeast Asia's anti-avoidance investigation has increased significantly, which may drive the terminal demand boom in the third quarter of this year and for a longer period of time in the future to continue to exceed expectations.
The U.S. PV demand potential is large, and it is difficult for local manufacturers to meet
At present, there are three main policy goals to stimulate the development of clean energy in the United States: Biden's "100% clean energy economy by 2035" (100% CleanElectricityby2035) proposed by Biden in 2021, "30% of photovoltaic power generation in 2030" (SEIA30x30) proposed by the U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Association in 2021, and the "Rebuild Better Bill - ITC Extension - ITC Extension" passed by the House of Representatives in 2021 but still before the Senate ”(BuildBackBetterAct,BBB)。
Previously, on May 2, the U.S. Department of Commerce released a memorandum on its website, saying that it would not conduct anti-circumvention investigations against enterprises that used silicon wafers produced outside China for cell and module manufacturing, and this statement could alleviate the employment pressure of photovoltaic module supply and related industries in the United States to a certain extent, which is good for Chinese photovoltaic companies with a high degree of integration in Southeast Asia, and the final result still needs to wait for the results of the investigation on August 30, 2022 and the final ruling on January 6, 2023.
At present, although the tariffs on China have not been lifted, according to Xinhua News Agency reported on May 5, the United States may cancel the 301 tariffs on China photovoltaics in order to curb inflation, and the United States currently imposes two tariffs on 201 and 301 for single-sided modules produced in China, which levy 15% and 25% respectively, accumulating 40%, of which the two actions of the "301 investigation" will end on July 6 and August 23 this year.
In the field of photovoltaics, China can be described as the global big brother, from upstream silicon raw materials to downstream HJT and ToPcon182/210 cells are inseparable from China.
After the Biden administration took office, it has given more goals to accelerate the energy transition, but at the same time, it hopes to make the local photovoltaic manufacturing industry grow through some means.
However, the reality is that solar energy manufacturers in the United States are difficult to compete with products from China, and the removal of tariffs will undoubtedly disappoint small solar manufacturers in the United States.
In February, San Jose, Calif.-based solar panel maker Auxin Solar filed a petition with the U.S. Department of Commerce asking federal trade officials to open an investigation to decide whether to impose tariffs on imports from four Asian countries. The company believes that Chinese manufacturers have moved production to these countries to avoid paying tariffs.
In fact, China's photovoltaic exports in recent years are indeed very large.
In recent years, the mainland's photovoltaic cells have been mainly exported, with exports of 10.3GW in 2021, an increase of 14% year-on-year.
Secondly, according to customs statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, the mainland's photovoltaic cell exports were 830 million US dollars, India, Turkey, Thailand, South Korea, and Vietnam occupied 72% of the export market share, and exports to India accounted for 36% of the market share, mainly subject to India's tariffs imposed on April 1, and importers surprised imports before the cost rose.
Exports to Turkey have a 13% market share, mainly due to the increase in demand for photovoltaics in Turkey and its non-inclusion of anti-dumping on cells, resulting in an increase in export share.
China's technology leadership cost advantage is the largest
A large part of the change in the type of cell supply comes from the improvement of the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the cell and the improvement of the technical maturity of the production equipment, and the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the BSF cell is less than 20%, so it is gradually eliminated; With the development of PERC cells over time, the photoelectric conversion efficiency is expected to increase from 22.5 to 24.1%, and the photoelectric conversion efficiency is increased by 14%-22% compared with BSF batteries. TOPCon cells with the development of time, photoelectric conversion efficiency is expected to increase from 22.8 to 25.6%; HJT cells are expected to increase their photoelectric conversion efficiency from 22% to 26% over time.
The technology of the photovoltaic industry is rapidly iteratively upgraded, and the larger the silicon wafer size, the more conducive to reducing processing costs.
The size of the wafer has undergone three major changes: the first stage from 1981 to 2012, the size of the wafer is mainly 100mm, 125mm; The second phase, 2012-2018, is dominated by M0-M2 silicon wafers; Since 2018, the third stage has successively appeared G1, M6, G12, M10 and other larger silicon wafers. When the wafer size is increased to a certain size, new requirements will be placed on processing equipment. On the other hand, the thinning of silicon wafers is also advancing, which can make silicon wafers more flexible and bring more possibilities to the battery and component ends. At present, the thickness of the mainstream 166, 182 and 210 monocrystalline silicon wafers on the market has reached 160μm, which is 16% thinner than in 2016. At present, the thinnest P-type silicon wafer sold in Zhonghuan is 150μm, and the thinnest N-type silicon wafer has reached 130μm, and it is expected that the thickness of the silicon wafer will be further reduced in the future.
Judging by the neutral assumption, if the 301 tariff is canceled, the Chinese mainland components and inverter products are expected to be directly exported to the United States, of which the double-sided modules will benefit the most, leaving only the double anti-tax (some corporate tax rates in the 21-year ruling are 0). Among the inverter enterprises, Jinlang benefited the most (affected by the 301 tariff, voluntarily gave up part of the share), and Sunshine, Hemai and so on will also benefit.
For the local manufacturing plan, we believe that in the case of labor, industrial chain support and other aspects do not have advantages and the installed demand is high, even if 22.5GW of production capacity is built in 24 years, it is difficult to replace Chinese enterprises.