This is the 1106th original article by Panda Babe:
From May to June 2022, in the environment of China's commodity market, the overnight popularity, even the red and purple duck, is definitely an economic phenomenon worthy of attention and analysis.
KFC Duck is a microscopic bubble in the economic field and a classic case of marketing.
More importantly, under the hustle and bustle, a classic effect of Western economics on the commodity market in a depressed environment has been perfectly reproduced in the up to the duck boom event.
This effect is the familiar "lipstick effect":
The "lipstick effect" refers to an interesting economic phenomenon in which lipstick is hot due to the economic depression, also known as the "preference trend for low-priced products".
In the United States, whenever the economy is sluggish, lipstick sales will skyrocket.
This is because, in the United States, people think that lipstick is a relatively cheap luxury, and in the case of economic downturn, people will still have a strong desire to consume, so they will turn to cheaper luxury goods.
As a "cheap non-essential thing", lipstick can play a "comforting" role for consumers, especially when the soft and moist lipstick touches the lips.
Moreover, the economic recession will reduce the spending power of some people, so that there will be some "small spare money" in their hands, just to buy some "cheap non-essential things".
Image source: Headline Gallery
The Dragon Boat Festival, coinciding with the unsealing of the epidemic in Shanghai, the core economic core of China's southeast coast, China's under pressure of the economic environment ushered in a key turning point, the node of the counterattack rebound, this article, starting from the overnight popularity, a duck is difficult to find the duck incident, and readers and friends to chat about the next Chinese market economy environment business operations and wind characteristics of some thinking and research.
Hardcore content, missed no more.
See the opportunities with a micro-view, grasp the trend, and guide decision-making.
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1
Event review: The little "up to the duck", how to make people head?
Stocky yellow body, flat mouth, alternating dancing hands... One of the Pokémon Elves that once swept the world, Dada Duck, exploded again 26 years later. The price of the duck toy given away by KFC in the children's package was once speculated to 3,000 yuan, and even CCTV and KFC officials issued articles to guide the public to consume rationally. This time, the duck is really becoming a "duck" that is difficult to find.
This Duck Music Box is actually one of KFC's children's day packages.
KFC's Children's Day package priced at 59 yuan, 69 yuan and 109 yuan will include a Pikachu music box, duck music box, Pikachu outing kettle and other toys co-branded with Pokémon.
In the early publicity of KFC, Pikachu is the C position, but soon after the release of the package, the original "no one cares" can reach the duck but burst into flames, and quickly appeared on Weibo hot search, triggering xx times of discussion and attention. At this time, not only do professional purchasing packages appear on the Internet to seek a "duck", but also some people are willing to spend hundreds of-3000 yuan to buy duck toys.
Image source: Network
Image source: Network
Who is the Duck? Why was it possible to suddenly burst into flames this time?
Tatsuya Duck comes from the Japanese game Pokémon, and friends who have played this game or watched peripheral anime know that Tatsuya Duck is just a supporting role here. Basically, this is a common memory belonging to the post-80s and post-90s.
Although Pikachu is the top stream, it is the protagonist. This time, KFC's children's package giveaways, there are also Pikachu, but they have been coldly received.
The most immediate reason for this is not complicated: Pikachu does not move, but the duck can move, and it moves quite magically:
Its two wings can be rhythmically waved up and down, which is both a bit sand sculpture and a little cute.
It is this trait that gives it more funny and social attributes.
You can paste "group leader, red envelope" on the two wings, you can paste "get up, do nucleic acid", if you want to collect debt but are embarrassed to open your mouth, you can also paste "debt, pay back", and then take a video to send to the other party.
Just such a simple and rude, and even some childish things, has become the top stream that everyone is sought after and the market attention is extremely high.
It is worth noting that in the group of ducks that can be snapped up this time, there are many post-80s and post-90s groups, and many of them are middle-class groups with relatively stable jobs and considerable incomes.
As of press time, I myself also made a special trip to the nearby KFC, still hard to find...
Image source: Network
2
From the ice pier to the duck to the lottery: from the real micro consumption to understand the real situation of the Chinese economy
Of course, after the duck became popular, the relevant analysis and content of various self-media came out a lot, but basically it was that set of facts, grasping an event to analyze marketing skills and study the characteristics of the product, to be honest, such content is actually of little significance.
People who have done business, especially traffic e-commerce, know how long is the vitality of China's explosive models at present?
72 hours? Or a week? Anyway, half a month must be cool.
If you still follow that routine, it is too superficial, and it is not in line with the content style that I have maintained for a long time with depth and attitude, looking at the essence through appearances, and grasping the law and looking at the trend.
Therefore, since you want to talk, you must talk about depth, learn from each other, find the law, and see the essence.
The overnight explosion of the duck is actually not an independent event.
Do you remember the ice pier of the Winter Olympic mascot that detonated the market in February 2022?
It is the following picture of this thing:
Image source: Headline Gallery
Of course, there is another economic phenomenon worth paying attention to, that is, The sales of lottery tickets in China, which have been snubbed for a long time, have seen a clear reversal of the momentum of the decline in total sales in 2022.
Numbers speak:
According to data released by the Ministry of Finance a few days ago, in April, a total of 31.072 billion yuan of lottery tickets were sold nationwide, an increase of 1.969 billion yuan or 6.8% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of welfare lottery institutions were 11.970 billion yuan, an increase of 805 million yuan year-on-year, an increase of 7.2%.
From January to April, a total of 117.317 billion yuan of lottery tickets were sold nationwide, an increase of 3.692 billion yuan or 3.2% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of welfare lottery institutions were 48.641 billion yuan, an increase of 3.481 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 7.7%.
Image source: Network
The conclusion is actually very clear:
Nowadays, the economy is not good, everyone's life is not good, and it is especially necessary to make people smile at this kind of thing to comfort the anxiety and anxiety of the environment.
There is demand, naturally will squeeze the supply, especially similar to the ice pier and the duck such pure consumer goods burst, must be the real shortage of supply caused, in the short term, will also be because of the demand squeeze, there will be price failure, speculation boom phenomenon.
Genuine authorized ice piers are the most expensive when a 2000, and now the original price to buy enough pipe, no one cares.
The popularity of emotional commodities at this stage is actually a good thing, that is, China's economy does not have a real depression, and the Western set of economic experience and theories is not suitable for China's current economic reality.
Depression, pressure are staged, so, for these goods with obvious lipstick effect, can not continue to be hot, once the resumption of work and production, back to normal, the vast majority of Chinese are normal to make money, who has the leisure to buy these small happy goods that have no practical significance other than emotional value?
Seeing the essence clearly, thinking independently, not being brought to rhythm, singing empty and looking down on one's own motherland is the most foolish approach.
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3
Reject pessimism: From the Duck Incident, grasp several important cusp characteristics of business during the economic recovery phase
Returning to the Duck Incident itself, it actually reveals many important outlet characteristics and commercial essences in the process of Alternating Stages of China's Economic Pressure and Recovery.
Here to share with you a few personal thoughts and views, not necessarily right, for your reference:
1, from the perspective of commodities, we cannot ignore the emotional value of consumer groups.
I once wrote an article that asked this question:
If we assume that all individuals in an economic environment are extremely rational and can make reasonable and accurate consumption according to their real needs, and all marketing advertising and consumerism brainwashing have no effect, then is it the most ideal economic state?
On the contrary, such an economic state can never occur, let alone reach such a state, in fact, as long as it tends to such a state, it will fall into economic contraction, consumption downturn, and then the entire economic environment will collapse.
Similar to Japan's low-desire society.
Consumption-driven economy must have redundancy, that is, in addition to the consumption necessary for survival, there needs to be additional consumption that is "not necessary" but needed by individuals, in order to ensure that consumption has a sustained increase and realize the pull economy.
During the Great Depression in the United States, many people could not even eat, but non-essential consumer industries such as movies, tobacco and alcohol flourished.
Can't eat, and have money to smoke, drink, and watch movies? The person who can ask this kind of question must be a theoretical bricklayer who lives in a vacuum.
Not to mention the United States, do you know what is the hardest currency, the most popular commodity, and even the most accepted goods during the Shanghai lockdown?
It is a sugar-free Coke. Of course, cigarettes are not bad, but contrary to mainstream values, they will not be expanded, which is probably what it means.
Non-advertising, for illustration purposes only Image source: Headline Gallery
Spending money for necessities is just survival, spending money for non-essentials is called life, and spending money for ideals is called pursuit.
The end of the epidemic, sooner or later, but to let the impact of the epidemic, the pockets of the people and the consumer market to spend money to consume, emotional value, in the first place.
2, no matter how perfect the marketing promotion and advertising brainwashing, are not as distinctive as the product itself.
Different times and environments, different consumer groups and demand habits, what songs to sing at what mountain, the survival of the fittest, is an eternal law.
The duck can become popular because it will move.
The popularity of the ice pier lies in the novel design.
Lotteries, cokes, and even cigarettes are all irritating and addictive factors.
Popularity requires characteristics, and in the stage of economic recovery, products without characteristics are destined to have nothing to do with the heat of attention.
3, the flow era, how fast the heat, how fast the cool, the basic needs, is the key.
It can reach the duck fire, but it will only be half a month at most, and it will soon cool down and then be forgotten.
People who do e-commerce know that making explosive models does not necessarily make money, and even the probability of losing money is very large, which may subvert the common sense cognition of many people, right?
In fact, this is the real economic logic, just like the mask business in the early days of the epidemic, those who participate in speculation and price gouging are basically not standing guard at a high level, or losing blood to the end, without exception.
Therefore, do not be superstitious about the blockbuster, nor should you think of why the blockbuster, the design of the blockbuster, can change the fate, and is not afraid of offending people, it is all a lie.
If there is a stock that is 100% sure of performance gains, then ask yourself, how much else will it cost to be willing to exchange this information? Teach people to make money, and the sky thunders. Whose money do you really want to make?
Following the trend will die, rubbing heat must be trapped, there is nothing new under the sun, there is never an exception.
No matter what the economic environment is, down-to-earth, no matter what industry, what business, two competitiveness to play clearly, is the king: a core competitiveness, I have others do not;
An advantage competitiveness, everyone can do, I do better than everyone.
Can understand the above logic, must have a good economic literacy, if there is a resonance, remember to like.
The big wave can only pan the sand, not the stone, which is the essence of the real need to get in the hot event.
Image source: Headline Gallery
Write at the end:
China's economic recovery can be expected to rebound, pessimists are correct but doomed to failure, and optimists are positive and certainly successful
Finally, returning to the actual environment and situation of China's economy, I would like to talk about a few personal views:
1, China's economy has resilience, stage difficulties, pressure and impact, there is no need to worry about the sky, the consumer market with a population base of 1.4 billion people, there is a lot to do.
2, the market will never lack opportunities, only lack of insight into the direction of the times of the eyes. And in any era, no matter how difficult it is, someone will stand out, and this is china's economic charm.
3, unlike the economic depression in capitalist countries, China's lipstick effect cycle is very short, many of the experiences of Western economics are not applicable to China's situation, and the real Chinese business must be studied in China's values and contexts.
4, the pessimist is correct but doomed to failure, the optimist is positive and must be successful, this has been said many times, this is the meaning.
5, the second half of 2022, or will usher in a comprehensive recovery of China's economy, and even there may be a violent rebound, no matter what industry, what occupation, positive optimism, seize the opportunity, is the right way.
Probably so much to say, micro dynamic insight into the macro trend, build confidence to transmit positive energy, hope to be able to give friends who see some inspiration, some help, some reference, that is very good.
Above.
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(According to the latest regulations of the relevant state departments, the content and opinions of this article are for reference only, and do not constitute any clear suggestions on property purchase, investment, etc., and enter the market at your own risk.) ）
The above text, from @Panda Babe Little Cute
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