On Monday (May 23) at the beginning of the Asian session, the market temporarily did not fluctuate much, spot gold hovered near $1847 / ounce, the main US crude oil contract oscillated near 109.79, the US dollar index fell slightly to near 102.93, and faced further downward risks, biased to the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and other non-US currencies and gold prices in the future, the US stock index futures rose slightly, suggesting that the market risk appetite improved during the weekend.
Monday's economic data is relatively small, but this week's economic data is more, Tuesday will usher in the European and American countries may PMI data, Wednesday will usher in the New Zealand Fed interest rate decision and the United States April durable goods orders monthly initial value, Thursday morning will usher in the Fed May decision of the minutes of the meeting, is expected to be the focus of the week, Friday night will usher in the United States April PCE data, may also have a greater impact on the market.
In terms of commodity closing, COMEX June gold futures closed flat at $1842.10 an ounce on Friday, up 1.8% last week, ending a four-week trend before falling. In June, WTI rose $1.02 to settle at $113.23; July, which was more actively traded and had more open positions, it rose 39 cents at $110.28; and Brent rose 51 cents at $112.55 a barrel in July.
In terms of U.S. stock markets, the S&P 500 was basically flat at 3901.36 points on Friday; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was basically flat at 31261.9 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.3% to 11354.62 points; the Nasdaq 100 index fell 0.3% to 11835.62 points; and the Russell 2000 index fell 0.2% to 1773.266 points.
Monday preview
International highlights
Saudi Arabia remains supportive of Russia's role in OPEC+
According to the Financial Times, Saudi Arabia has hinted that it will continue to support Russia's role in OPEC+. Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz said Saudi Arabia wants to "reach an agreement with OPEC+ ... This includes Russia", the world should recognize the value of the alliance, "if there is demand", OPEC+ will increase production, but it is too early to form an idea for a new agreement. The OPEC+ production quota, which will be implemented from April 2020, is set to expire in three months. The United States has been pressuring the coalition to boost production to moderate soaring energy prices.
Zelenskiy: There will definitely be a dialogue between Ukraine and Russia
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said on the 22nd that he had thought it was possible to end the conflict through dialogue, in which many answers and solutions to problems could be found with the Russian side. But the situation facing the dialogue now is complex. Zelenskiy believes that there will definitely be a dialogue between Ukraine and Russia. However, the Ukrainian side does not know what form the dialogue will take, including whether there is a mediator, whether it will be conducted on a large scale or bilaterally.
Mezinski: Ukraine freezes Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the Russian side is willing to continue dialogue
On the 22nd local time, Mezinski, assistant to the Russian president and head of the Russian delegation to russia-Ukraine negotiations, said in an interview with the Belarusian ONT TV channel that it was the Ukrainian side that froze the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and the Russian side never refused to negotiate, including negotiations at the highest level, and Russian President Putin has confirmed this many times. The only problem is that it is necessary to make serious preparations for the summit meeting between the two countries, and it is necessary to prepare highly mature documents. The purpose of the meeting between the two heads of state is to reach a final consensus and sign documents, not to take a group photo. Mezinski stressed that the "ball" of whether to continue peace talks is now entirely on the Ukrainian side. The Russian side is willing to continue the dialogue.
British health officials confirmed that community transmission of monkeypox virus has occurred in the UK
Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser to the Health Security Agency, said the daily increase in cases of monkeypox virus infection in the UK has created community transmission, and the virus is not related to travel to West Africa.
India plans to reduce the import tax rate of coking coal and coke from 2.5% and 5% to 0 tariffs
According to the News of the Ministry of Finance of India on May 21, in order to alleviate the high level of inflation in India, the Indian government introduced an adjustment policy for import and export tariffs on steel raw materials and products on May 22. The import tax rate of coking coal and coke will be reduced from 2.5% and 5% to 0 tariffs; the export tariffs on hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated plate coils with a width of more than 600 mm will be increased from 0% to 15%, and the export tariffs on iron ore, pellets, pig iron, rods and wire rods and some stainless steel varieties will also be increased to varying degrees.
Net long positions in usd decreased in the most recent week
Speculators' net long holdings in the dollar have decreased in the latest week, after a week earlier, it had increased to its highest since the end of November, according to data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. For the week ended May 17, the dollar net long position fell to $19.75 billion, compared to $19.82 billion in the previous week.
Dollar positions in the InternationalMoary Market in Chicago are calculated based on net positions in the six major currencies of the Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar.
The outbreak of monkeypox in Europe exceeded 100 cases, and WHO held an emergency meeting
(1) The World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss the recent outbreak of monkeypox, after More than 100 confirmed or suspected cases were reported in Europe. Monkeypox is a viral infection that is more common in West and Central Africa.
(2) Germany claims it is the largest ever monkeypox outbreak in Europe, with at least nine European countries – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom – as well as the United States, Canada and Australia reporting cases.
(3) Spain reported 24 new cases on Friday, mainly in the Madrid area, where the local government closed a sauna linked to most of the infections.
(4) A hospital in Israel is treating a man in his 30s who recently came to Israel from Western Europe. The man exhibited symptoms consistent with the disease.
(5) The disease was first found in monkeys, usually through close contact, and rarely spread outside Of Africa, so this series of cases has raised concerns.
(6) However, given that the virus is not as easy to spread as the coronavirus, scientists do not expect the outbreak to evolve into a pandemic like the covid-19 pandemic.
(7) Monkeypox is usually a mild viral disease characterized by fever and a pronounced bumpy rash.
(8) The first case of monkeypox was detected in the country on Friday by the medical services of the German armed forces, which said: "This is the largest and most widespread monkeypox outbreak ever recorded in Europe."
The last defenders of the Ukrainian Azov Steel Plant surrendered, and Russia sought control of Donbass
(1) Russia's Defense Ministry said the last ukrainian soldiers hiding at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol surrendered on Friday, ending the most devastating siege in the war. Russia is working to consolidate its grip on the Donbass region.
(2) Hours before Russia announced the news on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Ukrainian military told the last defenders of the steel plant that they could go out and save their lives.
(3) Russia said that the last group of troops to surrender had 531 soldiers. The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement: "The territory of the Azovstal steel plant ... it has been completely liberated," adding that a total of 2,439 defenders had surrendered in the last few days. The Figures were not immediately confirmed by the Ukrainian side.
(4) Russia also launched a seemingly significant offensive to seize the remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory in Luhansk.
(5) Luhansk Governor Serhiy Gaidai said on Telegram: "The Russian army has begun to carry out very intensive damage to the town of Sievierodonetsk, the intensity of the shelling has doubled, they are shelling residential areas, destroying houses. We don't know how many people died. ”
(6) Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said, "The war to liberate the Luhansk People's Republic will soon end." ”
(7) Zelenskiy described the situation in the Donbass region as "hell" and said the region had been "completely destroyed" by Russia. (End)
Russia stepped up its offensive against the Donbass, and Ukraine ruled out a ceasefire
(1) Ukraine ruled out a ceasefire or concessions to Moscow on Saturday, while Russia stepped up its offensive against the eastern Donbass region and halted supplies of natural gas to Finland.
(2) After several weeks of resistance by the last Ukrainian defenders in the strategic city of Mariupol in the southeast, Russia is launching a seemingly significant offensive in Luhansk, one of the two provinces of the Donbass region.
(3) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a nightly speech: "The situation in Donbass is extremely difficult. He said Russian troops were trying to attack the cities of Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk, but Ukrainian troops were blocking their advance.
(4) Earlier, Zelenskiy told local television that although the fighting would be bloody, it would only end through diplomacy and that Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territory would be temporary.
(5) Zelenskiy's adviser Mykhailo Podolyak ruled out agreeing to a ceasefire and said Kiev would not accept any agreement with Moscow involving the cession of territory. He said making concessions would backfire Ukraine because Russia would fight back more violently after fighting was suspended.
(6) "The war will not cease [after concessions have been made]. It will only be paused for a while," Ukraine's chief negotiator, Podolyak, said in an interview at the heavily guarded president's office, "and they will start a new offensive, even more bloody and larger." ”
(7) Western countries have also stepped up arms supplies to Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden signed a bill on Saturday to provide Ukraine with nearly $40 billion in military, economic and humanitarian assistance.
(8) The Russian military said it had destroyed a large number of Western weapons located in the Zhytomyr region west of Kiev using sea-based Kalibr cruise missiles.
The G7 meeting warned of inflation risks, but Japan and Europe have very different positions
(1) Japan and Europe have long had similar approaches to low inflation, but now they have taken very different approaches to monetary policy and to addressing the risk of rising prices. The Group of Seven (G7) meeting in Germany this week warned of rising prices.
(2) Bank of Japan Governor Higashihiko Kuroda reiterated his dovish stance on Friday, saying the recent cost-driven inflation would be short-lived and would not be a reason to withdraw stimulus measures.
(3) After attending the G7 Finance Summit, Kuroda Toshihiko said: "Our views have absolutely not changed, and it is appropriate to maintain our yield curve control policies, including negative interest rates." ”
(4) Kuroda's stance stands in stark contrast to that of increasingly inflation-worried European officials, whose concerns are enough to get them to commit to a rate hike in advance.
(5) Nagel, president of the Bundesbank and ecbloc supervisor, said after the G7 meeting: "It is certain that negative interest rates are a thing of the past. ”
(6) "The fact is that in a relatively short period of time, the inflation situation has changed profoundly. Correspondingly, monetary policy in most G7 countries has changed. ”
(7) As the U.S. also struggles to contain soaring inflation, the G7 financial leaders issued a communiqué saying central banks must adjust the rate of monetary tightening to address "levels of inflation not seen in decades."
(8) German Finance Minister Lindner, who chaired the G7 meeting, said the central bank had a "heavy responsibility" to help control inflation.
(9) Japan's core consumption inflation rate in April only slightly exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, for the first time in seven years. This is insignificant compared to the eurozone's record inflation rate of 7.4% in April, which is well above the ECB's 2% target even after excluding the sharp rise in energy and food prices.
Australian Labour Party won the general election albanis will be the new prime minister
(1) Australia's Labour Party is set to take power for the first time since 2013, with voters voting to oust scott Morrison's conservative government, a change that could lead to more initiatives in the country on climate change, women's issues and anti-corruption efforts.
(2) Morrison conceded defeat on Saturday night local time and congratulated Anthony Albanes on the victory of Labour, which is expected to achieve a majority in the 151-seat parliament. Australian media said Labour had won at least 72 seats, Morrison's Freedom-National Coalition had 54 seats, and independents and other parties had won 11 seats so far.
(3) "In our country, at times like these, looking around the world, especially when we see the Ukrainian people fighting for their freedom, I think on a night like tonight we can reflect on the greatness of democracy," Morrison said in acknowledging the election results. "I congratulate Anthony Albanis and the Labour Party, and I wish him and his government all the best."
(4) The working-class-born Albanes is a professional politician who is about to take over record unemployment and the fastest price growth since 2001. He promised to raise wages for workers, improve social security and take further action to combat climate change; Australia is the country that exports the most fossil fuels outside of Russia and Saudi Arabia.
A list of major markets around the world
U.S. stocks closed largely flat on Friday, with a sharp rally at the end of the session pushing the S&P 500 off the brink of a bear market, but the index fell for the seventh consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since 2001; it was at one point down more than 20 percent from its January closing high, in line with the usual definition of a bear market.
At the end of another week of turbulent trading, monthly expiries of options related to stocks and ETFs exacerbated price volatility. Safe-haven buying pushed U.S. Treasuries higher with the dollar
Last week was marked by buying at low prices and selling on highs, with investors fearing a slowdown and further tightening of monetary policy, while retailers hinted that high inflation was having a growing impact on profit margins and consumer spending.
The S&P 500's seven-week streak set the longest streak since the dot-com bubble burst more than two decades ago. According to The BetspokeInvestment Group, this is only the fourth time it has fallen for seven weeks or more since World War II. It's only a small sample size, but no such movements have occurred during periods when the stock market has been particularly positive, and the company's strategists said in the report were rooted in the FOMC's hawkish stance and heightened concerns about the possibility of a recession.
noble metal
Spot gold edged higher on Friday, closing at $1845.46 an ounce, up 1.86 percent this week, marking its first five-week gain as concerns about economic growth persisted and the dollar fell this week.
Falling US Treasury yields supported safe-haven gold, which fell for the third consecutive session as investors remained concerned about the growing signs of a slowdown.
PhillipStreible, chief market strategist at BlueLineFutures, said the dollar pulled back in the past week, helping gold prices rise. In addition, gold prices fell below the $1785 mark and entered the market on dips, which provided modest support.
As the Fed embarks on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades, economic data is weak, including higher-than-expected first-time U.S. claims for unemployment benefits, underscoring the risks to economic growth. Fears of a potential recession have led investors to flock to gold-backed ETFs. According to preliminary data compiled by Bloomberg, ETF holdings on Thursday picked up from their lows since March.
Ryan McKay, commodities strategist at TD Securities, and others said in the report that the weakness of economic data has brought much-needed support to precious metal prices, but they said that gold prices may face a relatively high threshold for a sustained rebound, and the downtrend and the negative sentiment faced by all precious metals in general remain unbreakable.
crude
Oil prices closed slightly higher on Friday, with the U.S. oil tail up 0.42% at $110.36 a barrel as the European Union plans to impose an oil embargo on Russia, some regions loosened the COVID-19 lockdown, and the refined oil market remained tight, alleviating concerns that slowing economic growth would affect demand.
Ahead of the summer driving season, rising demand for automotive fuel and falling inventories highlighted the fundamentals of tight supply, even as broader economic concerns shook the stock market. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBCPrivate WesternManagement, said there is still a disconnect between the risky financial markets associated with crude assets and the physical markets trying to digest the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to meet demand, and this disconnect has left the market fragmented, volatile and could eventually become a cruel summer for energy traders.
Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said risks remained skewed to the upside, given the reopening of parts of the region and the EU's continued efforts to impose an oil embargo on Russia.
The EU wants to reach an agreement on a proposal to ban the import of Russian crude, including a solution to the exclusionary situation of member states most dependent on Russian oil, such as Hungary.
In the U.S., U.S. energy companies added oil and gas rigs last week for the ninth consecutive week, according to Baker Hughes' statistics, as most small producers cope with high oil prices and ramp up production with a government push. The number of rigs is an indicator of future production growth.
foreign exchange
The dollar index rose 0.16 percent to 103.04 in late Trading on Friday, with the 10-year Yield down five basis points to 2.783 percent, though it still fell 1.4 percent last week as the market feared the dollar could be overly gaining over months. The Swiss franc recorded a weekly gain of 2.75% against the US dollar, the largest weekly gain in more than two years, and the yen recorded a weekly gain of more than 1% against the US dollar.
JPMorgan chase and chase strategist Meera Chandan and others wrote in the research report that the slowdown in US growth momentum will not challenge our bullish position on the dollar relative to the high beta currency, but rather a stronger reason, saying that whether the dollar should continue to outperform other reserve currencies remains a question; the team short EURUSD.
In recent months, investors have sought safe haven, supporting the dollar, fears of soaring inflation, the Hawkish Fed stance, and the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. However, the rally came to an abrupt halt last week as volatility in global financial markets and the rise of the dollar to highs in recent months prompted investors to turn to safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc.
Jonas Goldermann of CapitalEconomics said in a note that after the recent surge, it was time for the dollar to breathe.
Juan Perez, head of trading at MonexUSA, said that we see the dollar definitely a little higher and other currencies have room to rise, because if the global economy comes out of trouble and recovers from the poor performance in the first half of the year, the outlook will gradually turn better.
The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0533 against the dollar at one point; the decline narrowed to 1.0558 at the end of the session.
The dollar narrowed gains against the yen, rising 0.1 percent to 127.92, and Aoyama Gakuin University professor Yukihara said the yen would be between 140 and 150 by the end of the year.
GBP/USD gains narrowed to 0.19%, up 0.3% to 1.2500 at one point; GBPUSD rose 1.94% last week, its biggest weekly gain since December 2020, as the latest economic data suggest that the market may not need to significantly lower expectations for a BoE rate hike.
Huw Pill, chief economist at the Bank of England, warned that price pressures were "enormous" and that further rate hikes were needed. Uk consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in at least 48 years as rising prices dampened consumer spending power.
USDCAD rose 0.07% to 1.2831, down 0.4% intraday as bulls cut their positions.
This article originated from Huitong Network
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