Why I am not optimistic about Huawei Hongmeng system, talk about how Windows and Android are successful

The domestic discussion about Hongmeng has slowly faded from the beginning to the beginning, and I don't want to talk about the Hongmeng system before, because there are too many irrational voices, and I think I can try to talk about it now.

First show the point of view, I am not optimistic about Huawei's Hongmeng system. To make this clear, let's take a look back at how the Windows and Android operating systems have been successful. There are many talents who will do technology in China, but there are few successful examples of ecology and standards, and I hope to give you some inspiration.

I. The Computer Age - Recognizing for the first time the power of operating systems

In 1984, Apple introduced the Macintosh with a graphical user interface, a machine that revolutionized the way humans interact with computers and was a great success (until now Apple's computers are still called macs).

Macintosh

In 1985, Microsoft released the Windows operating system modeled after the Macintosh, which was a great success.

Why is Microsoft's Windows so successful?

1. First Mover Advantage - Microsoft is the second os-operating system vendor to launch a graphical interface after Apple;
2. High threshold - in an era when most people did not know what computers were, there was a shortage of talent and a high threshold for developing operating systems;
3. Open - Apple's operating system can only be used on macs, while Microsoft's Windows operating system can be open to all PC manufacturers, which undoubtedly allows other PC manufacturers to seize the life-saving straw against Apple. The crowd picked up firewood and the flame was high, and a burst of Wang Eight Fist Apple was defeated, and the mac computer is still a niche product.

Microsoft seized the dividends of the times, and when everyone reacted, it has become the hegemon of the computer market, and gradually everyone found that doing the operating system is really a monopoly business. Wintel Alliance Windows is the irreplaceable one.

The most important thing about the operating system is not the operating system itself, but the software application ecology around it, so that users/software application developers and computer manufacturers have formed path dependencies.

1. For example, the windwos that users leave, first find that there is no software available, and secondly, the learning cost of the new operating system is too high.
2. Software development companies find that when developing software on a new operating system, there are no users at all, and it is very difficult to make a profit, not even a software engineer learning to develop in a new operating system.
3. There is no use for the operating system, naturally no computer manufacturers go back to adapt and pre-install. In the end, there is a vicious cycle of mutual viciousness.

At this time, Apple's operating system cost is included in the hardware products, while Microsoft's operating system is a single-time-for-fee buyout system.

2. The Smartphone Era - An innovative app store model that achieves Google supremacy

After Jobs returned to Apple, he launched iPod in 2001, quickly occupying more than 90% of the mp3 player market, pulling Apple back from the brink of collapse. Because the iPod cannot be connected to the Internet, users need to use iTunes to purchase and download music on the computer, and then use iTunes to sync the purchased songs to their iPod. At this time, iTunes became a single entrance, became a music distribution platform, iTunes was the largest online song sales store at that time, Apple opened the precedent of "content payment", bringing Apple a huge after-sales profit. The combination of iPod + iTunes has upended the entire music industry, and traditional media such as physical records, tapes, CDs and other traditional media are on the verge of extinction, and almost all music is digitized.

In 2007, Apple released the iPhone. Inspired by the iPod + iTunes, Apple launched the App Store (App Store) on the iPhone.

When Apple first launched the App Store, the form of the product display was incomprehensible to many people, and it could even be said to be unique. Compared to computer devices that can download apps from anywhere, the iPhone's App Store is closed, and there is only one and only way to download genuine software. Software developers need to submit the application to the App Store for review. Apple can then check that the security meets the criteria of the App Store Evaluation Guide. Ensuring that no unexpected features are introduced and keeping malware to a minimum improves security and stability.

Merit:

1. App Store is too convenient for users, no longer need to look for apps everywhere, leaderboards can quickly see which apps are popular, one-click installation, one-click purchase of paid applications, no messy viruses on the computer.
2. App Store For app developers, good apps can quickly stand out, avoid piracy, and mature closed-loop payment system.

Shortcoming:

1. All applications, value-added services, etc. purchased in the App Store, Apple must take a 30% share, commonly known as Apple tax.
2. Apple became a policeman and could take down any app, and app developers and users had to accept Apple's overlord terms.

Google's Android, why break through the siege?

1. First-mover advantage - Google launched Android in 2008, the year after the iPhone release, Microsoft only released Windows Phone 7 in 2010, and people like UbuntuTouch/FirefoxOS/Meego were basically stillborn before they started.
2. Open source free - In the era of smart phones, there is no high threshold for doing operating systems, and everyone knows that doing operating systems is a monopoly business, and many powerful manufacturers no longer want to be other people's wedding dresses and then be woolen. In order to gather more operators and mobile phone manufacturers to support Android, Google launched the Android open source project AOSP (Android Open-Source Project), and the current and future versions of Android will be open source. Open source can make mobile phone manufacturers change their own code to create differentiation, like Xiaomi MIUI / Huawei EMUI / Meizu Flyme / Samsung OneUI are developed in this way, open source also means that all people can use it for free. At the same time, The Microsoft Windows Phone operating system is neither open source nor free, there is no support from mobile phone manufacturers at all, and Microsoft did not adjust its own strategy, but bound Nokia to go the way of Apple.
3. App Store Model - I believe many people have questions, especially domestic friends (there is no Google service in China), how Google makes money through Android Android, after all, Google is not doing charity. The answer is GMS, which is the same as Apple's app store, the so-called "wool is out of the pig", apple invented this app store model to make enough profits to feed an operating system company.

GMS is the full name of Google Mobile Service (that is, Google Mobile Services), GMS is not part of the Android Open Source Project (AOSP), mobile phone manufacturers can only use GMS after obtaining Permission from Google, GMS is essentially a collection of related applications and platform APIs under Google.

GMS includes such as "Google Search / Google Maps / YouTube", etc., after pre-installation Google can make money through these applications, these Google applications in the computer age is already the hegemon, basically everyone is indispensable, so mobile phone manufacturers are not opposed to pre-installation, and even heard that early mobile phone manufacturers can also get money from pre-installed from Google search, do not have to pay money can also make money, most of the small and medium-sized mobile phone manufacturers without technical ability have been done in this way. Google's apps can only be downloaded and updated from the Android App Store (Google Play), so the Android App Store (Google Play) has also been promoted by the way. Because basically all Android phones have the Android App Store (Google Play) built-in, it is undoubtedly the best distribution channel for software developers to upload their own apps.

Sure enough, there is no free lunch in the world, and free is the most expensive. With the growth of Android and the Android App Store (Google Play), users/software application developers and computer manufacturers have formed path dependence, Google has gradually closed the certification and authorization of GMS, so that mobile phone manufacturers and application developers gradually lost their autonomy, controlled by Google, and Google gradually moved towards closure.

1. When the mobile phone manufacturers do not obey, they are threatened by Google not to use GMS, no GMS means that there is no Android app store, no channel to download applications, for users this mobile phone has no intention of chicken ribs, now overseas mobile phones now HAVE BEEN UNIFIED BY Google, there is no previous differentiation.
2. When app developers don't listen, they don't let apps on the Android App Store (Google Play), so it's easy for Google to take a cut like Apple in the Android App Store (Google Play).

3. Why can't the Hongmeng system succeed?

Because the domestic can not use Google services, the domestic market is blank, after seeing the success of Google, domestic manufacturers have been eager to appear. But the time window has passed, neither the opportunity to lead the change of smartphone products when Apple released the iPhone, nor the urgent need for mobile phone manufacturers to compete with Apple when Google released Android, nor google has so many applications that people can't leave. Therefore, the domestic Android ecology is consistently broken, no strong person appears, so the right to speak is returned to the hands of mobile phone manufacturers from the new, after all, no one wants to share the cake and control to others, and do other people's wedding dress.

1. First of all, there are "Alibaba Cloud OS / Tencent TOS / 360 OS" that take the system route, etc., which are based on open source Android AOSP modifications, which can only attract some small manufacturers that have no technical capabilities, and as small manufacturers withdraw from the mobile phone market, they have disappeared. Powerful mobile phone manufacturers are changing their own systems to create differentiation, such as MIUI.
2. Secondly, there are "app treasure / pea pod / 91 assistant" that takes the application market model, etc., with the mobile phone manufacturers' own application stores, most of them have also withdrawn from the market.

But this also brings a problem, no one can have a decisive voice in the domestic Android mobile phone market, so the application developers can not be constrained, typical example:

1. For example, "32-bit applications" and overseas have long promoted 64-bit applications, because 32-bit applications do not let the shelves of the app store, but domestic mobile phone manufacturers do not dare at all, and finally Qualcomm became this evil person, Snapdragon 888's small core does not support "32-bit applications", so that mobile phone manufacturers are forced to start not letting 32-bit applications on the shelves.
2. The "unified push alliance" led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has not been promoted until now. At that time, the idea was that in the future, the terminal manufacturers would realize the unification of the push channel interface and functions, facilitate developer access, and no longer allow the applications to retain regular connections in the background, otherwise the large memory would not be enough. Not only do application manufacturers not cooperate (resident memory has many benefits for application manufacturers), mobile phone manufacturers also have their own small nine-nine, no one dares to offend application developers, saying that applications that do not support unified push will not let you go to the app store. There is no compulsion how can it be possible for various APP robbers to say that you will not rob in the future, is this not a joke.

Finally, let's talk about the Hongmeng system, which is divided into two parts: "Mobile Phone Hongmeng Operating System" and "All Things Hongmeng":

1. The essence of the mobile phone Hongmeng operating system is also based on Android AOSP, and MIUI / not much difference, not to say that based on Android AOSP is not right or bad, such as the domestic unified management system based on open source Linux, there is no need to repeat the wheel.

In fact, Huawei was only one step away from forming an independent operating system, because Huawei's mobile phone proportion in China reached a very terrible proportion, and it can cooperate with Huawei's HMS ecology through the share of mobile phones, but after being sanctioned by the United States, mobile phone sales plummeted, and it seems impossible at present. Without a market share in the mobile phone market, Hongmeng's appeal in the application developer may not even be as good as Xiaomi, how can these unruly application developers in China adapt to the HMS ecology, after all, no one wants to be stuck in the neck. Other domestic manufacturers are even less likely to use Hongmeng, and the meal of their own operating system and application market is so good that it is impossible to give it to Huawei.

Overseas because there is no GMS basically no drama.

2. All Things Hongmeng is based on LiteOS, which belongs to the kernel architecture and can be applied to some smart devices, such as cameras, doorbells, thermometers and other devices. I think that without the central support of smart phones, all things are a castle in the air.

To summarize some of the conditions for the success of the operating system:

1. Create revolutionary products, break the original market pattern, and lead the market, such as Apple;
2. Time opportunities are critical, and if the window is missed, there is no such thing as Microsoft/Google;
3. A good profit distribution model is key, how to get equipment manufacturers and application developers to gather around themselves. Google and Apple and the app market model has been very problematic, has been under antitrust investigation, app developers have been complaining about this problem. For example, the open source CPU instruction set RISC-V is a good learning object.

The above are some of the humble opinions I have been thinking about recently, and welcome to discuss and correct them. Welcome to follow/comment and collect, and update the in-depth good articles about the electronics industry from time to time!!!