The time came to May 19, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict also entered its 85th day.
With the end of the battle for the Azov Steel Works and the application of Sweden and Finland to join NATO, the situation became more and more stale and tense.
First, the end of the Battle of the Steel Mills means that Russia will have complete control of all of Mariupol, opening up land passages between the Donbass region and Crimea, and Ukraine will lose most of its control of the Sea of Azov because of this loss.
Second, the personnel of the Ukrainian defenders in the steel plant are complex, mainly composed of three parts: the Ukrainian army, the Azov battalion and other armed forces, as well as Western mercenaries, and after the evacuation of personnel, it will profoundly affect the attention of the United States and Western countries.
Third, the impact of the battle for steel mills may be able to counter the West, thereby further affecting or weakening the changes brought about by sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.
There is no doubt that the current situation is in a critical period, and any disturbance will have a whole-body impact.
On the 19th, three new trends worth paying attention to came.
As a result, Russia began to settle the ledger, and the commander of the Azov battalion was "wanted."
On the 19th, the Russian Defense Ministry said that in the past day and night, 771 Ukrainian personnel were "evacuated" from the steel plant, with a cumulative number of 1730 people, and the total number of wounded remained unchanged, or 80.
This means that at present, the internal wounded in the steel plant have been almost withdrawn, and the subsequent evacuations may be some personnel who are not injured or still have combat effectiveness.
Also on the 19th, Donetsk leader Pushlin said that about two-thirds of the people in the steel plant had laid down their arms and voluntarily surrendered.
This suggests that the total number of people in the steel plant should be around 2,000, and the latest to evacuate, or the people who are still in the steel plant, may be some senior commanders.
Although, among the Ukrainian defenders of the steel plant that have been evacuated so far, neither Russia nor Ukraine has mentioned the "big fish" speculated by the outside world, from another point of view, these senior commanders who may affect the war situation between Russia and Ukraine, and even the situation in Russia, Europe, the United States and Russia, are actually another type of "big fish".
It is in this context that Russia issued a new directive.
On the 19th, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs issued a message saying that it had put the commanders of the Azov battalion, Sergei Wielicko and Konstantin Nemichev on the "wanted list", and also filed criminal charges against them, and said that according to the investigation information, these two people had participated in the murder of at least 8 Russian soldiers.
There is no doubt that Wieliczko and Nemichev are not only the "main backbone" of the Azov battalion, but also one of the "most active Ukrainian personnel" during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, who have repeatedly spoken out on the Internet, clamored for public opinion, and even once sought a "sense of identity" from Japan, with a sense of preparation to "whitewash themselves".
It should be noted here that the Azov battalion has been in the Donbass region for many years, acting extremely, killing civilians in Donbass many times, kidnapping civilians during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and launching attacks on the Russian army, which has always been identified by all parties as an "extremist organization" and can be called "infamous".
Therefore, "eliminating the Azov battalion" is also one of the main goals of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Today, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has issued a "wanted order" directly to the commander of the Azov battalion, stating at least 3 points:
1, Russia's liquidation of the Azov battalion is a foregone conclusion, even if the armed personnel voluntarily surrender, they will face the next round of trial and liquidation, it is estimated that there will be a prison disaster;
2, Russia issued a "wanted order", indicating that the 2 Azov battalion commanders are not among the "evacuated" personnel, still unpredictable, may continue to hide the underground fortifications of the steel plant, may also have quietly escaped from the steel plant;
3, "the gun shoots the head bird", Russia wants the commander of the Azov battalion, perhaps only the beginning and prelude to Russia's liquidation of the Azov battalion as a whole. Moreover, as mentioned in Ukraine, the subsequent exchange of captured Russian troops with Russians for steel mill personnel may not apply to the Azov battalion.
To put it simply, the future "prisoner exchange" operation between Russia and Ukraine will not include the Azov battalion, let alone Wieliczko and Nemichev.
Of course, it is undeniable that Russia is also under pressure to liquidate the Azov battalion.
On the one hand, Kiev's attitude is uncertain, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not over, if Zelenskiy ignores the death or death of the Azov battalion, it is likely to affect the morale of the Ukrainian army, it is easier to lose the hearts of the people, if Kiev insists on rescuing the Azov battalion, the original plan of the Russian side may change.
On the other hand, the Azov battalion itself will also save itself, for example, Wieliczko and Nemichev may once again voice "help" through the Internet to create public pressure on Russia; and the wives of the commanders of the Azov battalion are likely to turn to the pope or other Western leaders again.
In short, despite Russia's resolute attitude, the ultimate fate of the Azov battalion is still unknown.
In addition, compared with the "unknown fate" of the Azov battalion, the same "uncertain future" is Sweden and Finland's application to join NATO.
Second, after Turkey, there are countries that oppose the joining of Sweden and Finland to NATO.
On the 19th, Croatian President Milanovic said that the country opposes and will prevent Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, and said that this move is provoking Russia and is a "very dangerous risky move".
On the same day, Milanovich also mentioned Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO, saying that Turkey was "showing how to fight for the national interest", that is, asking Switzerland and Finland to blame the Kurdish armed forces and give up support for them.
It should be noted that just on the 18th, Sweden and Finland submitted applications to join NATO at the same time, and NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said that the application will be evaluated as soon as possible and the next step after the two countries join NATO will be considered.
Obviously, NATO is "taking one step and looking at two steps", Sweden and Finland have not yet joined, and NATO is thinking about how to layout after joining.
It is more important to note that according to NATO regulations, new members can only be admitted with the unanimous consent of all member states.
Therefore, as long as Croatia and Turkey do not nod, the road of Sweden and Finland to join NATO will become a "broken road", and NATO's so-called next layout will also become empty talk.
In addition, on the surface, the opposition of Croatia and Turkey is due to security reasons, but this is not the case in reality.
On the Croatian side, due to the long-term marginalization of NATO, there have been many dissatisfactions, and Milanovic has also said early that unless NATO can guarantee the right of Croats to vote in Bosnia and Herzegovina, they will not approve any application to join NATO.
Turkey, on the other hand, also intends to list "10 demands", in addition to the above-mentioned condemnation of Kurdish armed forces, it also requires the United States and Europe to stop export restrictions on Turkey, lift the sanctions imposed on the purchase of Russian air defense systems, and reintroduce Turkey into the F-35 fighter program, while requiring the United States to sell dozens of F-16 fighters to Turkey.
It can be seen that in contrast, Turkey's "appetite" is much greater than That of Croatia, but countries such as the United States and Britain will not necessarily easily comply in the face of Turkey's threat and "rip-off".
In short, under the bait, there will be hanging fish. How many can be caught, and see how much Turkey and Croatia can do.
However, compared with the sudden "opposite" of Turkey and Croatia, what also surprised the outside world was the change in the attitude of the United States toward Russia.
In the third direction, the United States quietly "spoke for Russia".
On the 19th, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that in the United States, it is illegal to confiscate the assets of the Russian central bank that have been frozen, and the us law does not allow the US government to do so.
But Yellen also said the United States is discussing with allies how to get Russia to pay for Ukraine's postwar reconstruction.
The implication is that the United States will not confiscate the assets of the Russian central bank, but will find a way to get Russia to take out the money for reconstruction.
You know, recently some Western officials have been calling for the confiscation of Russia's frozen assets and their use to aid Ukraine, and many countries are interested. Today, when the United States speaks out, it is tantamount to stopping this trend.
At first glance, the United States has suddenly changed its nature and showed goodwill to Russia, but those who are familiar with international news know that the United States will not be so kind, especially to Russia.
From a rough guess, behind Yellen's statement, there are at least 3 considerations.
First, reshape the image of the United States, that is, the so-called "human rights defender, the world's police" of justice, so the "robbery" thing naturally can not be done;
Second, the United States intends to take far more from Russia than "confiscated property", and now it is only "sesame seeds" that are discarded, and the huge amount of money needed to rebuild Ukraine is "watermelon";
Third, the United States is also worried about completely provoking Russia, resulting in the "confiscation" of US assets in Russia or other countries by the Russian side. At that time, it will be the United States that should complain.
Finally, the escalation of tensions will only further exacerbate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and bring more suffering and turmoil.
We still hope that all parties will maintain reason and restraint, calm the flames of war through dialogue and negotiation at an early date, ease the situation, and restore peace?