"Just a membership card"? NATO's northward expansion challenges the international tradition of non-alignment

This is a sculpture and flag from NATO headquarters photographed in Brussels, Belgium, on April 6. (Xinhua News Agency reporter Zheng Huansong/photo)

After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Sweden changed its neutrality policy, which it had adhered to for more than two hundred years. In March 2022, Sweden shipped 5,000 bulletproof vests, 5,000 shoulder-mounted anti-tank rocket launchers, and 135,000 field rations to Ukraine.

"Today, Sweden pledged $23 billion to support Ukraine." On May 5, 2022, at a meeting of Ukrainian international donors in Warsaw, Poland, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson announced a new plan to aid Ukraine.

As two Nordic countries with a long history of military non-alignment, Sweden and Finland are also seeking to join NATO.

One foot has stepped into NATO?

Since 1999, NATO has expanded eastward five times under the leadership of the United States, increasing the number of member states from 16 to 30, advancing more than 1,000 kilometers eastward to the Russian border. Now, NATO is seeking to expand north.

"If they decide to apply [to join NATO], Finland and Sweden will be warmly welcomed, and I expect the process to be quick." On April 29, 2022, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly stated.

NATO expansion requires the unanimous consent of 30 member states, and a few NATO members have expressed opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Croatian President Milanovic said on May 3 that NATO should first resolve the Balkan issue before absorbing the two countries.

NATO's eastward expansion is an important factor leading to the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Now, NATO's northward expansion has once again touched Russia's interests. The Russian government has also repeatedly warned Sweden and Finland not to join NATO.

The border between Russia and Finland stretches for more than 1,340 kilometers. If Finland joins NATO, it will double Russia's land borders with NATO members. If Russia is attacked by NATO, Sweden, Finland and Norway all have an important role to play.

"If Finland and Sweden apply to join NATO, Russia will no longer discuss the status of the Baltic Sea without nuclear weapons." Recently, the vice chairman of the Russian Security Council and former President Medvedev issued a warning.

On April 29, 2022, the Swedish Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying, "A Russian AN-30 propeller aircraft violated Swedish airspace on Friday night." ”

But Sweden has stepped into NATO on one foot. After the Cold War, nato led by the United States repeatedly attracted Sweden and Finland into the partnership. As early as 1994, the two countries joined NATO's "Partnership for Peace Program," which used Russia as an imaginary enemy. At the same time, Sweden has also maintained cooperation and dialogue with Russia in the fields of climate and security.

Joint military exercises are an important means for NATO to win over neutral countries. In September 2017, Sweden held its largest post-Cold War military exercise, called Aurora 17, in which 1,500 foreign soldiers from more than a dozen countries, including the United States, France, Norway and Germany, participated.

On March 14, 2022, NATO conducted a 28-country Cold Response-2022 military exercise in member Norway, in which Sweden also participated. The U.S. warship USS Forrest Sherman made a rare call in the port of Stockholm.

For more than two hundred years, Sweden has adhered to the principle of "permanent neutrality", especially during the two world wars and the Cold War.

Although Sweden survived two major wars and the Cold War, the sale of 35 million tons of steel to Germany and the allowing German troops to enter Norway through Sweden also left a historical stain on the Nazis.

Under the Hague Convention adopted in 1907, neutral states do not participate in war during war and do not help fight belligerents, nor should neutral countries be required to export or transport military materiel to any belligerent.

"Over the past few years, we have worked so closely with NATO that it is almost the same as a membership card." On a current affairs show on Swedish television, The Centrang leader Annie Lööf said.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, many European countries changed their traditions of neutrality and returned to the Cold War era's "friend or enemy" security concept and were forced to choose sides. Not only did Switzerland and Austria, two neutral countries, join the sanctions against Russia, but Sweden and Finland announced their intention to join NATO.

If all goes well, the two countries are likely to join NATO in the summer of 2022.

Following in Finland's footsteps?

Historically, there has been a mixture of grievances with Russia, and both Sweden and Finland have been Russian-phobic.

As far back as the 12th century, Finland was part of the Kingdom of Sweden. In 1523, Finland became independent with Sweden. In 1809, after the Russo-Swedish War, Finland became the Grand Duchy of Finland under Tsarist Russia. In December 1917, Finland became independent and declared permanently neutral.

During World War II, Finland was originally an ally of Germany, and the Finnish army once followed the German army to besiege Leningrad. In September 1944, the Finnish army turned its guns to the Germans, destroying more than 2,000 Germans at the cost of about 1,000 people.

In 1948, Finland and the Soviet Union signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation, which established the conditions of neutrality. As a result, Finland did not join NATO during the Cold War.

During the Cold War, successive Finnish governments pursued a policy of neutrality and friendship toward their strong neighbors in the East and suppressed anti-Soviet speech internally, so that "Finlandization" became synonymous with seeking perfection.

Historically, Finland has had many conflicts and frictions with Russia. Sweden faces a similar security environment with Finland and has historical ties to Finland. As a result, both countries have adopted a policy of military non-alignment.

"We need to be open about the long-term and short-term consequences and risks. There are different views on applying or not applying to join NATO, and we will soon have results. On April 14, 2022, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced that the country was considering joining NATO.

If Finland wants to apply for nato membership, it must be proposed by the cabinet first, and then discussed by the Parliament and sent to the president for signature. Finland's Morning Post believes that the current president, Sauli Niinisto, would be in favor of joining NATO.

If Finland decides to join NATO, there is little chance that Sweden will not follow in its footsteps. According to the latest poll published by the Swedish "Gothenburg Daily", if Finland joins NATO, about 60% of Swedes believe that they should follow Finland to join NATO, and only 15% of the opponents.

The Swedes' attitude toward NATO has changed dramatically. According to a Novus market research questionnaire, in January 2022, on the eve of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, about 35% of Swedes agreed to join NATO, and 31% of Swedes opposed. Three months later, the number of Swedes supporting NATO had risen to 46 percent.

In Finland, the number of people supporting NATO membership is also increasing. On February 25, 2022, pollster YLE announced that at least 53 percent of the population supported Finland's nato membership, with 28 percent of opponents.

"We Finns have had a very stable attitude towards NATO over the last two or three decades." Matti Pesu, a senior fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, noted that public opinion in Finland did not change much in 2008 from the conflict between Russia and Georgia, and the Crimean War in 2014.

"This time the public opinion is completely different." Pessou said.

The "Hutqvist Creed" was questioned

However, the tradition of military non-alignment has had a profound impact on Sweden, and the neutral line has become part of the country's political culture and group consciousness.

"Sweden has been militarily non-aligned since the end of the Napoleonic Wars in the early 19th century. The war changed public perception of Sweden's membership in NATO. "Joining NATO will usher in an era of graves for Swedish foreign and security policy." ”

U.S. columnist Jonathan Bauer also wrote that Ukraine's move closer to NATO has angered Russia, and Sweden's plan to join NATO is also "playing with fire", which will make Sweden more insecure than it is now.

After the Cold War, NATO repeatedly expanded eastward, forcing Russia into a corner step by step, not only did not make Europe safer, but planted the seeds of conflict. However, many Swedish people believe that cooperation with NATO is very different from officially becoming a member of NATO, which implements NATO's collective defense provisions and only member countries can get comprehensive security protection.

"We don't believe NATO will bring peace, it will lead to war." On May 7, 2022, hundreds of Swedes gathered in the capital, Stockholm, chanting slogans against NATO membership.

Around whether to respond to NATO's northward expansion, Swedish politics is also roughly divided into two factions. On May 8, during a debate among the leaders of the Swedish parliamentary parties, the Environment Party and the Left Party explicitly opposed joining NATO.

But most lawmakers expressed support for joining NATO. Recently, Sweden's third-largest party, the Democratic Party, which has been opposed to joining NATO, has also changed its course: if Finland applies to join NATO, the party will also agree to Sweden's application to join.

"As long as I'm defense minister, Sweden will never be a member of NATO."

In November 2021, Swedish Defense Minister Hutqvist said publicly.

This does not mean that Hutqvist is a dove. On the contrary, he has been strengthening Sweden's defenses since coming to power in 2014.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), defense spending in Sweden remained roughly between 3.5% and 4% of GDP in the 1960s. After the Cold War, Sweden's arms spending also fell from 2.5 percent in 1989 to 1 percent in 2017.

By reducing arms expenditures, Sweden can maintain a high welfare society. But Since coming to power in 2014, Hutqvist has been pushing for an increase in armaments costs.

In 2015, the Swedish Parliament passed a resolution setting a target of an 85 percent increase in the country's defense budget by 2025. In 2017, Sweden resumed conscription. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, Sweden's defense budget increased from $6.5 billion in 2021 to $11 billion in 2022.

This is Sweden's largest defense budget ever, already 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is the same as NATO's defense budget requirements for its member states, but many members actually fail to achieve this goal.

Hutqvist insisted on upgrading its military strength and maintained close cooperation with NATO but not ally, a model that was dubbed the "Hutqvist Creed" by the Swedish media.

Previously, Hutqvist's Social Democratic Party also believed that it was enough to maintain cooperation with NATO, and Sweden should adhere to "freedom of alliance". However, the "Hutqvist Creed" is increasingly being questioned, and the ruling party has recently embarked on a series of political processes to join NATO.

Judging from the relevant political activities announced by the Social Democratic Party, on May 12, the party will hold a security policy dialogue meeting. The next day, an analysis of security policy jointly drafted by various parties was released. From 15 to 24 May, the Social Democrats may make a final decision on whether Sweden will apply to join NATO.

The agenda set by the Swedish Social Democratic Party is also relatively close to that set by Finland. In addition, on May 17, Finnish President Niinistö will visit Sweden. This means that Sweden and Finland will coordinate on whether to join NATO.

If coordinated, Swedish television and other media also predict that Sweden and Finland will submit their application for membership at nato's Madrid summit at the end of June 2022.

Sweden and Finland, though neither of them are members of the Non-Aligned Movement, have echoed the organization for many years. The concept of non-alignment emerged in the 1950s, which in layman's terms meant not participating in either of the two opposing blocs of the United States and the Soviet Union.

Today, the Non-Aligned Movement has grown into a loose international organization with 120 member states and 17 observer states, the vast majority of which come from developing countries such as Asia, Africa and Latin America.

After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, sweden and Finland, two traditionally neutral countries, have a new trend of joining NATO, and the situation in Europe has also shown local changes of "non-friend or enemy, and neutral countries are forced to choose sides". But John Jolchary, an associate professor at the University of Michigan, notes that more countries are still choosing to remain neutral.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Brazilian President Bolsonaro made it clear that he would not take sides," Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also reiterated his non-alignment policy, and more than two dozen countries, including South Africa and Pakistan, have adopted similar neutral positions.

Southern Weekend Contributing Writer Kang Jian