Discussion| Top 5 free agents at risk of signing this summer: Harden top Irving & Westbrook are on the list

(Translator's note: The author of this article is B/R writer Andy Bailey, the views in the article do not represent the views of the translator and the platform, and the data in the article is as of May 7, Beijing time before the game)

Free agents could completely change a team's fortunes in just one offseason.

The Phoenix Suns recorded just 29 wins and 53 losses in the 2003–04 season, ranking second from the bottom in the West. But in that offseason that year, they signed Steve Nash, who led the Suns to the league's best record in 2004-05 and himself the regular season MVP trophy.

However, not every free agent signing has been a fairytale success.

In 2016 (a surprising number of players signed that summer), Chandler Parsons left the Rodas Mavericks (now the Lone Ranger) to sign a four-year, $94 million contract with the Memphis Grizzlies. But he played only three seasons for the Grizzlies, averaging less than 32 games per season, averaging just 7.2 points per game and shooting as low as 39.3 percent from the field.

Obviously, injuries were a big factor in Parsons' slump and fading out of the league (his last NBA game was in 2019, when he was just 31 years old), but injuries were only part of the team's risk assessment of him before signing. Prior to joining the Grizzlies, Parsons had been reimbursed for early seasons for knee surgery for two consecutive seasons. So, the Grizzlies' signing was a losing gamble.

Of course, Parsons and Nash's signing is an outcome of two extremes. Most offseason free agents don't have much of an impact on new teams. But this offseason, there may be some gambling signings, and signing a huge contract with any of them could cause some concern.

Who is the riskiest free agent to sign this summer? The answer is as follows.

1. James Harden (Player Option)

In six full seasons with the Rockets (2014-15 to 2019-20), Harden led the league in BPM( a basic plus-minus stat that evaluates a player's contribution to the team while on the court).

But he also leads the league in playing time and ranks second in the league in terms of usage (after... You guessed it, second only to Wei Shao). During that time, Harden may have carried the heaviest burden in the league, and now, after changing teams three teams in two seasons, that burden has fallen on Harden's shoulders again.

Although the high-level data is a bit out of touch with reality, Harden's performance in this area is still quite good. However, his high-level data is constantly declining. His BPM slipped from 9.6 in 2019-20 to 7.2 in 2020-21, and to 4.1 this season. His true shooting percentage, steal rate and turnover rate after joining the Nets and 76ers have also become worse.

Harden's decline in status isn't just evident from the data in spreadsheets.

ESPN's Tim Legler said at the end of March: "Harden can't even figure out the initial defender right now. He just can't do it now. I don't know if something is wrong with him physically. He's no longer the dominant offensive player he used to be. ”

Harden's performance has not improved. Since the comments were published, Ha has averaged 10.6 assists (included in the playoffs), but his average per game has dropped to 18.5 points, and his overall shooting percentage and three-point shooting percentage are only 38.9% and 32.3%, respectively.

Harden now often adopts the strategy of "using the ball as a battering ram" rather than trying to get rid of defenders and complete the offense on his own, and overall, his form seems to be on a downward trend. With such on-course performances, combined with the above stats, do you really have a reason to give this "stadium commander" a maximum salary contract?

In August, Harden will turn 33. Very few players can miraculously reverse the decline of physical ability at the age of 35.

Giving Harden a $50 million a year contract this summer is arguably a concern.

2. Kyrie Irving (player option)

The reason for Irving's multiple absences over the years is a topic discussed in another article, but the truth is that after joining the Nets, Irving averaged less than 35 games per season. He left the Cavaliers and Celtics because the team was far from achieving the desired result.

And now, after a 2021-22 season in which he was swept out by championship favourite Celtics in the first round, Irving is talking about leading (or at least helping to lead) the team into the future.

Irving said at the end of the season: "When I played alongside Durant, I thought it would take us to manage this team with boss Choi Chong-shin and general manager Sean Max. ”

Forehead...... All right. Yes, the "player empowerment era" has evolved into the "player management era." But some teams that fell into the era of "player management" didn't succeed (should we pay any attention to the Lakers' deal for Westbrook?). ）。

But given the chemistry problems that Irving brought with him while playing for his first two teams, we can say that the rest of the league should have shown little interest in his philosophy of managing the team.

But what if you consider his talent? Of course, Irving's on-court performances this season are still dazzling. He averaged 27.4 points and 5.8 assists per game and shot 41.8 percent from three-point range. His ability to handle the ball, his ability to juggle under the basket, and his ability to complete a stop jump shot in a very small space and in completely out-of-control situations are almost unparalleled.

However, given Irving's health, age (he just turned 30) and a host of additional factors in his career, signing him this summer (on a big contract) could be a risky decision.

3. Russell Westbrook (Player Option)

Westbrook, like the two players above (and Wall below), has player options. While it is unknown whether the two players will execute the player option, it should be unlikely that Westbrook and Wall will refuse to execute the player option.

Westbrook's contract is worth $47 million next season, and while his first (and probably only) season with the Lakers simply couldn't have been worse, it's hard to see him turn down the money.

If he does refuse to execute player options (or if the Lakers trade him to a team that would buy him out in time so he could find other suitors this summer), any team interested in him will proceed with caution.

Westbrook's performance has long relied heavily on athleticism. Although injuries and time have not yet had a particularly big impact on him, he turned 34 in November. The decline in his physical condition is bound to come (if not already).

Wei Shao's bigger problem was his stubbornness.

The Lakers are Westbrook's fourth team in the last four seasons. He did have some highlight moments during his "journey" (there's no doubt about it in the second half of the Rockets and Wizards period). But whether he meant it or not, "going his own way" is still his style of play.

Wei Shao is used to the identity of the team leader in the Thunder, so he has no way to complete the identity transformation now. Westbrook supporters may point out that [Westbrook's performance has declined because] his usage has declined slightly in recent seasons, but he needs to make much more adjustments than that.

Wei Shao still likes to stand and watch when there is no ball. He'd better study game footage of role players like Bruce Brown, like he did by cutting into the defense without the ball, pulling defenders away from ball carriers like Irving and Durant.

He also failed to change some of his bad habits on the defensive end, such as "dozing off" when the defense was without the ball, or making gambling steals and letting his teammates help him make up for it.

After going through three different situations where he had to make major changes in order to coexist with the rest of the superstars in the squad, it's hard to imagine westbrook really making the perfect change during his next contract.

But there should still be teams that hope to make Westbrook the same person he once was, the one who averaged 24.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 9.7 assists per game in the past seven seasons, and the Westbrook who can help the team expand the goal difference when he is on the floor.

Maybe the idea of hoping he could continue this data performance for the next two years isn't entirely ridiculous?

4. John Wall (Player Option)

There have been teams that have signed a big contract with Wall before.

In 2017, the Washington Wizards signed him to a four-year, $171 million contract with a "designated player veteran exception." It's a contract extension that expires until the 2022-23 season.

Since signing the contract, Wall has averaged just 22 games per season. He also missed two full seasons in 2019-20 and 2021-22. Of the 188 players who shot no less than Wall during this period, Wall ranked 185th in effective shooting percentage and nearly 6 percentage points below the league average.

Given these circumstances, Wall's refusal to execute the $47.4 million worth of player option for the 2022-23 season seems unlikely (especially with so little salary space available to the league).

But if Wall doesn't execute the player option, other teams that want to sign him may need to take a lot of risk.

In addition to his possible future injuries, his past injuries have weakened his athleticism, and his athleticism is a key to Wall's style of play. His success early in his career was due to his advantages in terms of the speed of his full-court runs, lightning first steps, and explosiveness under the basket.

If he loses those advantages, or only slightly, then Wall will become a player who is completely different from his former self.

However, during this injury-plagued period, Wall was able to average 8.4 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. If he can work harder on the defensive end and focus on improving his outside projection, then he can still make a positive contribution to the team.

But there are too many "ifs" for a player who wants a worthwhile contract (especially if he chooses not to execute the player option).

5. Victor Oladipo

Of course, there won't be many teams lining up this summer to give Oladipo a big contract. It's even hard to imagine a team signing him with a middle-class exception (just over $10 million a year).

This is not a contempt for Oladipo's current performance in the game. He has played just eight games in the regular season this season. Over the past four seasons, he has averaged just 24 appearances per season. Injuries have destroyed a once-promising career.

But even with limited chances for the Heat to show how much oil is left in his tank, Oladipo's performance is enough to attract some teams to pursue him this summer.

In the Heat's finale of the regular season, Oladipo shot 13-of-22 and scored 40 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. And in the final game against the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs, in the absence of Jimmy Butler, Oladipo scored 23 points.

Is that enough for some teams to sign him with a mini-middle-class exception or a space-middle-class exception (with an annual salary of more than $6 million and more than $5 million, respectively)?

And this is not a big move by teams in the offseason, it is generally just a "on the fringes" move of the team, and it is hoped that players signed with this regulation will best try to reverse the decline of the team or add icing on the cake to the team. If you sign a player who has missed most of the season due to injury with one of these regulations, it could seriously affect the team's prospects (even if it doesn't take up too much of the salary cap).

But optimistically, Oladipo has gone through the toughest of times. Maybe he could be a worthy free agent, like Grant Hill, who is around 35 years old. After all, he's also been named to the All-Star Team twice.

But there is still a pessimistic (and perhaps more realistic) view that Oladipo is nearing the end of his career. The team chasing him this summer had to think about that.

Written by Andy Bailey

Compilation: Can't hold the basket at all