India heat wave
In the ongoing heat wave, the people of India are suffering.
Since early spring, the country has been plagued by dry, stuffy weather. The Indian Meteorological Service (IMD) said its March maximum was the highest in nearly 122 years, with only a quarter to a third of normal rainfall.
By April, anomalous temperatures began to sweep across more parts of India, with average temperatures reaching 43-46 degrees Celsius. Despite the persistence of hot weather patterns, the vast majority of Indian households live in poverty and lack air conditioning, increasing the population's vulnerability to unusual heat. Older people and children are particularly vulnerable to the threat of high temperatures. In March, one person in Maharashtra died of dehydration caused by high temperatures while out working, and in April, two others died after heat stroke without receiving timely assistance.
But that's not the limit.
On April 30, the Indian Meteorological Service predicted that temperatures would rise further, and in the second half of May it would be 5.5 to 8.3 degrees Celsius above average, with parts of northern and western India, especially those close to the border between Pakistan and Nepal, likely to withstand the most extreme heat, and if the most extreme forecasting models are correct, the maximum temperature in May could be as high as 50 degrees.
Outrageous temperatures reflect an overlap between natural variation and the effects of anthropogenic climate change, which is known to make heat waves more intense and persistent.
There are early warnings
In 2020, the Earth Science Department of the Indian Meteorological Agency released a report saying that overall temperature in India rose by 0.7 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2018. Under extreme emissions scenarios, the frequency of summer heat waves is expected to increase at least twice by the end of the century. Even the chance of warming up at night will increase by 70%.
Usually, during the formation of the summer monsoon, temperatures begin to stabilize and drop sharply in late spring, and rapid warming occurs when onshore winds transport large amounts of water northward and bring heavy rain to most of the region. However, this is also changing.
Over the past 6 to 7 years, the overall decrease in seasonal summer monsoon rainfall has led to an increased propensity for drought in India. It is expected that by the end of this century, the frequency, intensity and surface of drought conditions in India are likely to increase.
Where do abnormally high temperatures come from?
One factor contributing to the heat is the high pressure in the middle of the atmosphere, which creates a dome-like hole in the sunken air that eliminates cloud cover and turns the storm system north. This will allow sunlight to be injected unobstructed, heating the previously dry air. According to the overall weather pattern, there is little sign of relief in the coming month, and even the intensity of the high temperature may continue to rise.
The lows of nighttime temperatures rise significantly, especially in cities, where the "urban heat island" effect triggered by cement and paved surfaces traps heat energy long after the sun goes down, resulting in temperatures not dropping much after nightfall, which increases the propensity for heat stress and negative health effects.
Other specific causes are still being studied, but they are inseparable from global warming.
India faces its worst power crisis in recent years
Abnormal high temperatures have had a significant adverse impact on crop and industrial activities, and many places in India have been in a state of emergency in recent coal stocks, so India can only be forced to stop more than 700 passenger trains, in order to prioritize coal transportation, in order to replenish the demand for coal in time.
But under the influence of persistent heat, although most Indians can't afford air conditioning, electricity consumption across India has inevitably skyrocketed, and coal is tight, and the power crisis they face seems to have not reached its limit. In the northwestern Indian state of Rajasthan, for example, factories and rural areas in the region have been cut off for 4 hours a day to alleviate the pressure on electricity. The lack of electricity is also a fatal blow to the development of the Indian economy.
What a crisis under the chain reaction! What will happen next, it is completely unclear.