8 days to visit 5 Countries in Europe and Asia, the Japanese Prime Minister ran southeast Asia to pull the "Front against Russia"?

On the evening of April 30, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's trip to Europe and Asia entered the second stop, Vietnam. Kishida will stay here for no more than 24 hours and hold talks with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Thiệc. Similar to the first stop, Indonesia, Kishida will not surprisingly put the situation in Ukraine and the South China Sea on the table.

Analysts believe that Kishida's visit to five Southeast Asian and European countries, in addition to the need to consolidate relations with these countries, is more deeply intended to stimulate the response of Southeast Asian countries to the War between Russia and Ukraine, and at the same time to win them in line with the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" to deal with China. However, most Southeast Asian countries are reluctant to take sides in the great power game, and their statements on the russian-Ukrainian military conflict are also very cautious, and it is not easy to establish the "encirclement network against Russia" that Japan imagines.

Take advantage of the big break to "fill the vacancies"

Since Japan does not hold parliamentary deliberations from the end of April to early May, it has become common practice for successive Japanese prime ministers to take advantage of this large recess to visit many countries. Japanese media revealed that the Japanese government initially discussed letting the prime minister visit the Middle East oil producers and urged the latter to increase oil production, but the time happened to coincide with the Middle East Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, so Kishida decided to start the Eurasian trip first.

The tour starts on April 29 and runs until May 6. Kishida plans to visit countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Italy and the United Kingdom. Analysts believe that Kishida's visit has the following three purposes.

First, we will continue to consolidate relations with strategic partners in Southeast Asia and European countries, and while strengthening cooperation, we will also win diplomatic points for Kishida and help the Senate election in July this year.

Japan's Sankei Shimbun pointed out that Southeast Asia is an important diplomatic stage for Japan, the United States, China and other countries to "compete to expand their influence". The second cabinet of Shinzo Abe and the cabinet of Yoshihide Suga both visited Southeast Asian countries a month before their establishment. For the Kishida government, which inherited the "free and open Indo-Pacific" vision, the importance of Southeast Asia will not change. But Kishida has been in power for more than half a year, and he only visited Cambodia, a Southeast Asian country, in March.

Therefore, Kishida's visit to three Southeast Asian countries is not only a trip to "fill in the gaps" but also a trip to deepen cooperation. The Japanese government has put a lot of thought into the choice of countries to visit – Indonesia is the rotating chairmanship of the Group of Twenty (G20) in 2022; Vietnam and Japan have common interests in safeguarding maritime security; and Thailand is the rotating chairman of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) this year. According to Thai media, the two countries may seek to sign a defense equipment and technology transfer agreement, and Japan has signed similar documents with Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam.

In Europe, in addition to the situation in Ukraine, trade issues are likely to take the most weight at the negotiating table. Japan and The EU have signed the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), and both sides want to assess the implementation of this huge agreement. In addition, digital transformation and climate action are all areas where Japan and Europe are committed to strengthening cooperation.

According to the Deutsche Welle website, Kishida was Japan's longest-serving foreign minister during Abe's administration. With the crucial elections for the Senate looming in July, Kishida wants to use his diplomatic advantage to add points to himself.

Want to pull the "Russian front"?

The second purpose of Kishida's visit is that, against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Japan hopes to use its status as the only Asian member of the Group of Seven to bridge the differences between Southeast Asian countries and the West over sanctions against Moscow.

Public opinion has noted that so far only Singapore in Southeast Asia has participated in the sanctions against Russia, and other countries have taken a cautious attitude - Vietnam, Laos and other countries abstained in the resolution of the Ungain General Assembly condemning Russia, keeping a distance from the United States and Europe, which are constantly increasing sanctions against Russia. In the context of the West's expansion of the "Front against Russia" from the North Atlantic to Asia, Japan hopes to exert influence and seek understanding among Southeast Asian countries on the issue of strengthening pressure on Russia and to stimulate their response to the war.

In fact, Japan's diplomacy has been frequent recently. "Responding to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict" and "coordinating the position of sanctions against Russia" can be described as the red line that runs through it - whether it is the Kishida cabinet receiving visiting German Chancellor Scholz in Tokyo on April 28, or foreign minister Lin Fangzheng visiting Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia and other countries, or Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi's visit to the United States next week, Japan's performance can be described as "eye-catching". However, Japan's "coordination" in Southeast Asia seems to have had little effect.

Take this trip to Indonesia, where Indonesian President Joko Widodo avoided naming Russia at a joint press conference. In the face of Western voices excluding Russia from the G20 framework, Indonesia, as the rotating chairman, stressed the "impartiality of the presidency" and "the unity of the G20", saying that it had invited Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy to attend the G20 summit held in November, and Putin had also confirmed his attendance.

Jeff Kingston, professor at Temple University Japan and director of the Department of Asian Studies, said, "Across the [Southeast Asian] region, people are reluctant to side with either side and have a contradictory attitude towards the coordination of democracies that are united in support of Ukraine." Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao commented that Vietnam and Russia have maintained friendly relations since the Soviet Union, and the relations between Laos, Myanmar and Russia are equally far-reaching. Their arms cooperation with Russia could not be replaced by Japan in a moment and a half. Japan alone will not succeed in winning over more ASEAN countries to sanction Russia.

On the other hand, some Southeast Asian countries are sensitive to the actions of external forces to force them to change their traditional all-round diplomacy. Former Thai Finance Minister Tirachai expressed alarm on Facebook about Kishida's visit to Thailand, saying that "the United States and Japan are jointly co-opting Asian countries."

Aligning with the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy"

Kishida's visit also did not forget to carry a reserved repertoire of "dealing with the Threat of China", and the foreign media regarded "confrontation with China" as another purpose of Kishida's trip to Eurasia.

Deutsche Welle's website notes that Japan's leaders made implicit but tough statements when they met with Indonesia's president. Kishida said he was "strongly opposed to attempts and economic pressure to change the status quo in the East and South China Seas," and his implications for China were self-evident. In addition, Kishida decided to provide an additional loan of about 70 billion yen (about 3.56 billion yuan) for the construction of Indonesian harbors during the talks, and said that it would launch an investigation on the provision of patrol boats to Indonesia to help improve maritime security capabilities.

At Vietnam, the summit will also include a response to Activities in the South China Sea. Japan also plans to carry out defense cooperation to support the capacity building of the Vietnamese military.

According to the analysis, in connection with the fact that the Japanese side will receive US President Biden and the leaders of Australia, India and other countries later this month, Kishida's visit to Southeast Asia also has the intention of cooperating with the US "Indo-Pacific strategy" and testing the attitude of Southeast Asian countries, thus paving the way for the next "four-way security dialogue". In Beijing's view, the essence of the so-called "four-sided mechanism" is "a tool for containing and containing China and safeguarding US hegemony." China stressed that ASEAN countries are "chess players" in promoting regional development and prosperity, not "pawns" in geopolitical competition.

Lianhe Zaobao believes that ASEAN has always advocated maintaining dialogue relations with all parties, and falling to either side will damage the central position of ASEAN, which is the key that ASEAN countries must consider before making any decision. Reuters pointed out that Southeast Asian countries are worried about losing economic cooperation opportunities with China and strive to avoid getting involved in the Sino-US game.

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: IC PHOTO Photo Editor: Xu Jiamin

Source: Author: Zhang Quan