Source: Global Times
After the shuttle bus of the Confucius Institute at the University of Karachi in Pakistan suffered a suicide attack on the 26th, resulting in the unfortunate death of three Chinese teachers, the "Balochistan Liberation Army", a terrorist organization in Pakistan claiming responsibility for the case, publicly shouted on the 27th that it would launch more violent attacks on Chinese targets. A number of experts said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 28th that the occurrence of this bloody case and the subsequent blatant threat of the "Balochistan Liberation Army" mean that Pakistan may usher in a new round of terrorist attacks, and the main target is still Chinese, institutions or projects in Pakistan. In this regard, the Pakistani government and military should be on high alert, strengthen the protection of Chinese citizens, institutions and projects in Pakistan, and further enhance their counter-terrorism capabilities. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin stressed on the 28th that terrorism is the common enemy of all mankind. China and Pakistan have the determination and ability to cut off the black hand of terrorists and make them pay their due price. It is believed that the Pakistani side will take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth progress of China-Pakistan cooperation. We would also like to remind Chinese citizens, institutions, projects and personnel in Pakistan to improve safety precautions and pay close attention to security risks.
The suicide terrorist attack on the bus of the Confucius Institute at the University of Karachi is another major terrorist attack on Chinese citizens in Pakistan after the Dasu terrorist attack last July, which killed nine Chinese citizens. After the incident, the Baluchistan Liberation Army, a terrorist organization in Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack. On the 27th, a spokesman for the organization claimed in a statement that "China's direct or indirect presence in Balochistan will not be tolerated" and threatened to attack more Chinese targets.
Qian Feng, director of the research department of the National Institute of National Strategic Studies of Tsinghua University, told the Global Times reporter on the 28th that previously, terrorist organizations in Pakistan such as the "Balochistan Liberation Army" had also issued threats to China's projects in Pakistan, but "after such a bad atrocity, such a rampant threat was issued, which is very rare and must be highly vigilant." He analyzed that the purpose of the "Balochistan Liberation Army" move was to "engage in terrorist propaganda warfare in an attempt to produce greater deterrent and threat effects."
Zhu Yongbiao, a professor at lanzhou university's "Belt and Road" research center, told the Global Times reporter that according to Pakistani media reports, the terrorist attack suspect is a highly educated woman, with a son and a daughter, belonging to the typical upper middle class. "The background of the suicide bomber shows that organizations such as the Balochistan Liberation Army are very deceptive, and the separatist forces now refer to the suspect as a 'national mother' and a 'role model', which can easily have a demonstration effect and encourage more attacks." He analyzed that in the future, the "Balochistan Liberation Army" will increase the possibility of suicide terrorist attacks through women, children and other subjects, and the situation of collusion and grouping with domestic and foreign terrorist organizations may continue to appear, and the target will still be mainly aimed at Chinese, institutions and projects. In this regard, both China and Pakistan should be highly vigilant and make relevant preparations.
"The first is to assist the Pakistani government in improving its governance capabilities; the second is to further require the Pakistani security forces to provide protection for Chinese goals and avoid slackness; the third is that Chinese enterprises and employees should be vigilant and further improve the relevant plans; and the fourth is to strengthen the intelligence exchange work of Central Asian and South Asian countries and give play to the role of the SCO counter-terrorism mechanism." Zhu Yongbiao said that in addition to strengthening the "hard cooperation" with the Pakistani side in counter-terrorism, more attention should be paid to "soft cooperation", which can strengthen the sharing of counter-terrorism and de-radicalization experience in the field of education between China and Pakistan.
Many analyses and public information show that since the second half of last year, the counter-terrorism situation in Pakistan has deteriorated significantly, and attacks on Chinese personnel and enterprises have also increased significantly. Among them, the "Balochistan Liberation Army" is one of the most extreme anti-China forces in Pakistan, and it is also the force that has taken the most actions against Chinese targets in Pakistan in recent years. Although it is not strong in itself, it has repeatedly expanded its influence by attacking Chinese targets and hyping up, which has become more rampant in attacking Chinese targets.
Zhou Rong, a senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Chinese Min University, told the Global Times that the use of "Kochi women" as suicide attackers shows that the upper echelons of the "Baloch Liberation Army", especially the "Majid Brigade", have undergone fundamental changes, that is, young people of the intellectual type are beginning to dominate. These people are more radical than the older generation of the Balochistan Liberation Army, which is mostly tribal chiefs and is relatively more likely to cooperate with the Pakistani government and army. Changes in leadership structures will also change their terrorist philosophy, and their terrorist attacks are expected to be more diverse in the future.
Zhou Rong also said that from March 8 to April 12, Pakistan experienced a constitutional crisis, the imran Khan government was torn down by a case of mistrust, and the new multi-party coalition government was more fragile than the previous government. The Balochistan Liberation Army (PLA) took advantage of this gap in political turmoil to launch the attack. "The Pakistani military has been making great efforts to counter terrorism and protect China's Pakistani program, but in the future these efforts should be more refined and persistent, with particular attention to strengthening intelligence gathering capabilities." Zhou Rong said, "Counter-terrorism is not only a battle, but also requires careful planning, understanding and analysis, and improving the ability to analyze the dynamics of terrorist organizations." ”
It is worth noting that in addition to the "Balochistan Liberation Army", other terrorist organizations active in Pakistan, such as Bata, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and the Islamic State, have also expanded significantly in the past six months or so. These groups, while opposing the Pakistani government, are hostile to China and have publicly threatened attacks against Chinese targets.
Wang Shida, deputy director of the Institute of South Asian Studies of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, reminded that in the past few years, pakistan's military and police have a relatively strict and complete protection plan for large-scale projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, but some non-China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) and scattered Chinese-funded personnel and projects have not yet been included in the pakistani complete security framework.
Wang Shida told the Global Times reporter that in the past one or two years, the terrorist forces in Pakistan have attacked scattered Chinese and projects more and more obviously and fiercely, and this trend should arouse the Pakistani side to attach great importance to and establish a comprehensive security mechanism for all Chinese-funded personnel and projects in Pakistan.
"In addition to the security plan, the Pakistani government should also launch a national reconciliation plan to quell separatism," Yasser Habib Khan, founder and president of the Pakistan Institute of International Relations and Media, told the Global Times, adding that Pakistan should conduct political negotiations involving grassroots leaders in Balochistan, rather than tribal members supported only by political elites, in order to weaken local separatist forces. At the same time, there is a need to raise the living standards of the people of Balochistan, thereby initiating a process of "de-radicalization" in the region.