Moldova is "not at peace", and Western countries fear that it will become a new front line in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

The Paper's reporter Nan Boyi intern Zhu Yilu

On April 25, local time, according to TSV TV, a series of explosions occurred in the building of the "Ministry of State Security of the Transnistrian Republic" in the city of Tiraspol in the separated area of the Transnistrian River in Moldova( referred to as Dezuo), and the "Ministry of the Interior" officials said that unidentified people attacked with grenade launchers, but fortunately there were no casualties.

On April 26, according to the Russian news agency, an attack occurred in the "Ministry of Defense" parking near the airport of Tiraspol. On the same day, two more explosions occurred in the village of Mayak in the Grigoriopolski region, causing the failure of two of the most powerful antennas in the radio center of radio broadcasting Russian radio. In the past few weeks, several bomb alarms have sounded in schools and medical facilities in the Dezo area.

The Transnistrian Republic is now on "Red Level Terrorist Threat Alert" and cancels the large-scale activities associated with Victory Day on 9 May.

Tensions escalate

The day after the bombing in the city of Tiraspol, Moldovan President Sandu convened a meeting of the Security Council and said the incident was related to a confrontation of forces within the Transnistrian Republic, which was not widely recognized by the international community.

According to a presidential speech published on the website of the Moldovan Presidential Office, Sandu said after the meeting, "Our analysis shows that there are tensions between the various forces in the region that are deliberately destabilizing." This makes transnistrian regions more vulnerable and poses risks to the Republic of Moldova. The Sandu government condemns "any provocative act and attempt to involve Moldova in actions that could endanger internal peace".

Russian news agency reported on April 26 that a person from the authorities of the "Transnistrian Republic" believes that three Ukrainians participated in the terrorist attack on Tiraspol, and several terrorist attacks on the 26th were a "logical continuation" of the previous related bombings.

The source pointed out to RIA Novosti that the shelling and terrorist attacks show that Kiev is trying to pull Moldova and the left bank of the Transnistrian River into conflict, and "Ukraine has spread the conflict to transnistria regions." ”

According to the Transnistrian Press Service, the leader of the "Transnistrian Republic" authorities, Vadim Krasnoselsky, has asked the Ukrainian side to investigate the terrorist attack on Dezuo. "As the preliminary conclusions of the emergency investigative measures indicate, traces of these attacks point to Ukraine." He stressed that the local area will try to defend itself, "we will certainly find all those who conspire with these criminals, but we cannot be involved in the conflict." ”

In addition, Krasnoselis urged Moldova "not to succumb to provocations and not to allow Moldova to be drawn into aggression against the Transnistrian region" and called for "first agreement on peace and its preservation".

"We very much don't want the investigation to reveal that the forces that provoked violence in neighboring countries were also behind the (bombings)." Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ludenko told RIA NEWS Agency that Moscow wants the perpetrators to be duly punished, "Let's wait for the results of the investigation: either terrorism, provocation, or hooliganism." The latter is the least likely. ”

Looking back at history, Moldova, whose official language is Romanian, was controlled by the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, Romania and other countries at different times, and in 1940, the Soviet Union forced Romania to cede besarabia (including most of the territory of present-day Moldova) and other regions under the Additional Protocol to the Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact, and Moldova became a republic of the former Soviet Union.

In 1990, after the Supreme Soviet of Moldova adopted the Declaration of the Sovereignty of the Republic, the Transnistrian region, with a Russian-speaking population, opposed Moldova's independence from the Soviet Union and declared itself the "Transnistrian Republic" in September of that year, but it was not universally recognized by the international community.

In 1992, moldova and the "Transnistrian Republic" broke out of armed conflict, with the participation of the Russian 14th Army stationed in transnistria, Moldova was defeated in the conflict and ceased fire in the same year. As of now, a Russian legion of about 1,300 men is still stationed in transnistria.

The "new front" of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?

It is worth noting that the Transnistrian region borders the Odessa Oblast in western Ukraine. According to CNN, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in response to a reporter's question on the 26th that Russia is trying to destabilize the region through military activities in the separated region of Moldova - Transnistria, "this is just one of the steps of the Russian Federation." Asked about the number of Russian troops present in the Transnistrian region, Zelenskiy said the Ukrainian armed forces were "ready" and "not afraid of a new front to deal with a military invasion."

"If Ukraine falls, tomorrow Russian troops will be at the gates of Chisinau [in moldova's capital]." Mykhaylo Podolyak, an aide to the Ukrainian president, wrote on Twitter.

The Guardian reported on April 26, quoting Bob Dean, a Moldovan expert and senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations in Clingendael in the Netherlands, as saying that it is difficult to know whether the recent incident was a "false shot" by Russia or a real act of sabotage by anti-Russian organizations. But he argues that recent Russian rhetoric points to some of its long-term goals for transnistria. "We have seen that the topic of transnistria is becoming more openly discussed in the russian public sphere."

Previously, Major General Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of the Russian Central Military District, claimed on the 22nd that Moscow's goal involves seizing the south of Ukraine in order to allow Russia to control the Black Sea coast and enter the Transnistrian region.

The Guardian analysis believes that a series of explosions in Moldova may spread the conflict to new areas and have unpredictable consequences, and Russia's entry into transnistria will pose a threat to Moldova's sovereignty.

In this regard, The Russian presidential press secretary Peskov said on the 26th that the Kremlin is paying close attention to the development of the situation in Transnistria and expressing concern about the terrorist attacks. Pushlin, the leader of the self-proclaimed independence of the "Donetsk Republic" in Eastern Ukraine, told RIA Novosti that Moscow should "take into account what happened along the Transnistrian River" when planning the next phase of military operations.

"Of course, the speed [of reaching the border] is very important for us in order to carry out the next phase of the operation, after we see what is happening along the Transnistrian River, and what is happening in the border areas of the Russian region, (special operations) is almost necessary." Pushlin pointed out.

According to an article published on April 25 by the explanatory news site The Conversation, Russia's goal now appears to be to establish full control over the Donbass region and southern Ukraine. If successful, it would mean that Russia occupies about a third of Ukraine's territory and cuts off the Ukrainian interior from the Black Sea port of Odessa. In addition, Russia may also take action against Moldova and its secessioned transnistrian region. Therefore, the second phase of the Russian operation is likely to mean a more serious escalation.

Unlike Ukraine, the Moldovan Constitution provides for neutrality in the East-West conflict. Moldovan government officials have also repeatedly said the country will not seek to join NATO. Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, is now stepping up its quest to join the European Union in response to its own "vulnerability."

"We are Ukraine's most vulnerable neighbor because we are the most affected country and we are the country with the fewest resources available to deal with the situation and the consequences of war." Moldovan Foreign Minister Peposcu has previously said.

Responsible editor: Hu Zhenqing Photo editor: Hu Mengxi

Proofreader: Liu Wei