The post-90s generation never expected that their "square dance era" would arrive so soon.
In the past month, countless netizens have opened the short video software on time at 7:30 every night, neither to shop nor to brush the live broadcast of a certain favorite star, but to wait for the fitness class of Liu Qihong's "Coach Liu".
The 49-year-old Liu Qihong, with his healthy figure and spirit state and reliable professional ability like that of his early 20s, coupled with Jay Chou's "Compendium of Materia Medica", the top of the Chinese music scene, within 7 days, liu Qihong's douyin platform fans soared by 10 million. As of April 27, liu qihong douyin platform fans more than 50 million, the day before Liu Qihong launched the live broadcast room, more than 3 million people watched at the same time.
Liu Qihong, who was isolated at home in Shanghai, unexpectedly ushered in the second spring of his career by live-streaming gymnastics. At the same time, "cloud fitness" has gradually entered people's field of vision, and the activity of online fitness and sports APP users has increased significantly.
Zhongtai Securities Han Xiaochen believes that China's online fitness population and fitness population average annual expenditure still has a large room for growth, the fitness industry online trend is obvious and the government continues to introduce relevant policies to encourage the development of the fitness industry and other catalysts, the future online fitness market has considerable growth potential.
In 2026, the "cloud fitness" market will reach 896.5 billion
In 2021, China has the largest fitness population in the world, reaching 303 million, and is expected to reach 416 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% during the period, nearly twice that of the United States and Europe.
A fitness person is a person who participates in fitness activities more than twice a week. From 2015 to 2021, the CAGR of China's fitness population size is 11.3%. According to Zhongtai Securities, China's fitness population will continue to expand, and is expected to grow from 303 million in 2021 to 416 million in 2026, during which the CAGR will be 6.5%.
At the same time, with the continuous expansion of the scale of China's fitness population, the continuous increase in per capita disposable income, and the increase in fitness expenditure under the role of consumption upgrading, the scale of China's fitness market will continue to grow, and it is expected to increase from 786.6 billion yuan in 2021 to 1479.3 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.5%, far higher than the growth rate of the global fitness market in the same period of 7.5%.
Driven by the obvious digital trend of the fitness industry and the gradual transformation of users to online fitness methods, the growth of the future fitness market is mainly attributed to the online fitness market. According to China Insights, China's online fitness market is expected to increase to RMB896.5 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.3% from 2021 to 2026.
The online fitness market includes online fitness membership and fitness content, as well as revenue generated by the online sale of smart fitness equipment, fitness equipment and clothing, and healthy food.
Among them, online health food accounted for the largest proportion, 52.7% in 2021; however, Zhongtai Securities expects that online fitness membership and courses will grow the fastest between 2021 and 2026, with a CAGR of 30.8%.
Online fitness competition pattern
Intelligent sports and fitness mobile app competition is fierce, and brands gradually open up new chains of value: mobile software can be divided into: 1) sports and fitness service software, typical representative of Keep; 2) mobile intelligent terminal supporting software, typical representative of Xiaomi sports; 3) sporting goods brand application software, typical representative of Nike Training Club.
The Peloton community, the world's largest interactive fitness platform, has more than 3.21 million loyal users, including 2.33 million connected fitness subscribers and 870,000 digital subscribers; in 2021, users carried out a total of 7.41 million fitness exercises on the Peloton platform.
Peloton uses hardware such as treadmills and fitness bicycles as carriers to expand revenue sources and improve user stickiness by providing content subscription services to users, and has become an imitation object of many Chinese fitness platforms.
Peloton treadmill
As one of the more successful online fitness apps in China, Keep's business model is to provide users with comprehensive fitness solutions, covering the entire fitness life cycle of users. The main products are online fitness content, intelligent fitness equipment and supporting sports products.
At present, the monthly active user scale of Keep ranks first in the sports and health APP. According to QuestMobile data, keep's active users in December 2021 were 20.66 million, far exceeding the active users of other sports and health apps.
Online fitness business model
The revenue channels of online fitness platforms mainly include: advertising revenue, paid course income, membership subscription income, sales revenue of fitness equipment and supporting sports products, and offline service revenue.
Keep, for example, generates revenue from membership subscriptions and online paid content, owned products, advertising and other services.
Keep's total operating income increased from 663 million yuan in 2019 to 1.107 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 66.9% year-on-year; the total revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 1.159 billion yuan, an increase of 41.3% year-on-year.
Among them, self-owned products accounted for the highest proportion of total revenue, at 55.1% in the first three quarters of 2021, followed by membership subscriptions and online paid content, with 32.8% in the first three quarters of 2021.
According to the china insight consulting report, the Keep brand ranks first in the field of smart bicycles in China in 2021 in terms of commodity trading volume; keep is the largest yoga mat brand in China in 2021 in terms of total commodity transactions, with a market share of 14.9%.
Keep's revenue from membership subscriptions and online paid content has been growing rapidly, at $380 million in the first three quarters of 2021, up 52.5% year-over-year; advertising and other services, with revenue up 51% year-over-year and costs up 1.7% year-over-year in the first three quarters of 2021.
summary
In the era reshaped by the epidemic, "cloud fitness" has become an "antidote" to alleviate anxiety and get out of difficulties. Zhongtai Securities believes that with the improvement of people's health awareness, the increase in the opportunity to participate in fitness activities, and the increase in fitness expenditure, China's fitness market is accelerating its growth; the online fitness industry is also constantly providing intelligent, highly interactive and immersive fitness solutions and high-quality user experience through technological innovations such as artificial intelligence, and the online fitness industry has greater investment opportunities in the future.
This article refers to "Online Fitness: Gym at Home", by Han Xiaochen of Zhongtai Securities