Originally, we were thinking about whether the growth rate this year could reach the planned 5%. In fact, in the current world pattern, the real situation is whether it will encounter a more serious recession. The energy crisis, the food crisis, has now been embodied, although it has not reached the point where it affects our fundamentals, it must not be underestimated, and this is the situation we are facing now.
Once the food crisis is very serious, then it can be said that there will be a war on the scope. This is the probability of the whole world.
The current situation is that many countries are surprised by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and more importantly, they are afraid of being affected by them. Because for many countries, what makes them prosperous is the blessing of international capital, without the intervention of capital, this country is very difficult to prosper independently.
And this time the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can really make international capital make a choice. After all, no one wants to invest in an unstable region. So this time the situation crisis has made the United States more prosperous.
The United States is the center of capital
Safety, is the first choice of capital choice, the United States security is not safe? Even though the United States has provoked many wars around the world, even this time. But what has to be denied is that the US mainland is very safe. Because of the United States' own strong military guarantees. There has never been a major upheaval on the mainland. So in the whole world of choice, the United States is qualified to be favored by international capital.
Because only security can develop, can there be enough attractiveness for international capital to favor, only in this way, they do not have long-term worries. Why is there no international capital in Libya or Iraq? It's because of the security itself. When your own security is threatened, there is no capital reason to stay here.
This has also created the united states in the field of science and technology excellence, in attracting international talent advantages. Many people say why do you go to the United States after achieving fame? Mainly in their eyes, the United States has a "development environment" in the post-security phase.
Therefore, whether international capital comes or not depends on whether you are safe here or not, and only after security can you talk about the next step. That is, the yield, the insecurity, the high yield is meaningless. At the same time, this is also the idea of the United States, and this time the Russo-Ukrainian War is the behavior of the United States.
As long as foreign countries are not safe, you will be able to see how safe I am here! You might retort that there are all kinds of riots in the United States on television, and there are so many shootings, which is for ordinary people, and the rich areas of the United States have never had this kind of problem. International capital only looks at the big environment, because they are not "commoners" living in ordinary areas, they are rich people. Especially in the United States, "rich people" can have safer guards.
Therefore, for the sake of security, the United States wants hegemony, and for the sake of hegemony, the United States must provoke wars in the outside world. This is an investment in security, and the advent of international capital is a return to hegemony.
So this is a good explanation, as long as my family is big, then there will be capital to invest, as long as the capital comes, then I will always have money, so that the whole system will keep the United States under the monopoly system.
So if you're doing business on a bustling snack street and there's always a lot of making trouble, can you make money? Will you do business here? It's the same thing, first of all, only if it's safe here, you have the possibility of making money. The United States is the "shoulder handle" of this snack street, and whoever comes here will not affect the business here.
So in essence, the United States is absolutely not allowed to exist with anyone who can "threaten" it. The former Soviet Union posed a threat to the United States, but what about the result? The Soviet Union automatically disintegrated, and then it gave the United States a big "victory." Then there is the little brother of Japan, the United States has cleaned up the "rules and regulations" of Japan, and this time in the conflict, the United States has "fiercely" cleaned up the European Union. It is to let capital come to him.
So we can now know that everything the United States does is all about capital. It is all for capital to maintain its "hegemony", and then the "hegemony" makes capital favor it, which is a virtuous circle.
And what is the most fundamental thing? That's money! Ah, the US dollar! Only the dollar is fundamental.
For international capital, you do any business, not play with the dollar to make money fast. So this also presents the current situation of the dollar. The dollar is not in a good position right now.
Why, because the expansion of the dollar is the root of the United States' strength. If the world's economies decay on a large scale, the influence of the dollar will be greatly reduced.
Therefore, in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States began to impose various sanctions, which fully reflects what kind of situation the apex of the economic field covered by the US dollar has seen.
Russia is not in the dollar area, but at the same time Russia made counter-sanctions, the ruble into the energy system, in fact, this is a beginning, with the United States continue to carry out a variety of arching behavior, many countries in the world will respond accordingly, if the dollar field of the economy, all one by one exit, then the dollar coverage? It will be less. At this time, the dilemma of the dollar is reflected.
In the past two years, the dollar has been oversold, and the United States has made people all over the world pay for its plight, and now the economy covered by the dollar is decreasing. This will make the dollar value no longer as strong as it once was. Then shrinkage is the inevitable result.
This is actually very unfavorable and very wrong for the United States. But why do they have to do this, even if the dollar shrinks, they must do these acts? It may be two different bad outcomes, so you can only choose one that is relatively good.
The United States still chose the result of "hegemony," first maintaining the "hegemonic status" of the United States, and then talking about other things. This is also a helpless choice for the United States, because if the United States does not "hegemonize", the dollar's temporary prosperity will not have any meaning, and the final result is something that the United States cannot afford.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is now very intense, but there will always be an end to the day, and after the end is "dangerous".
Choice of capital
The conflict this time is actually that the United States wants to pull the capital of the European Union first, and first cut the leeks of the European Union. But Russia's response has made the world see a different attitude.
Russia is a big country, a big country, a big country, very dissatisfied with the current order, and reacting to it is completely different from the effect of a small country saying such things. If Japan said such a thing, probably all countries would giggle, every time it happened, but when Russia said such a thing, everyone's face would no longer be smiling.
Because we can see what the situation is like now. Now that the conflict has been going on for two months, the United States and the West have all made the most brutal sanctions, but what? The result? As a result, the ruble dollar's exchange rate has now returned to pre-conflict levels, much to the surprise of any country.
Because the Russian ruble has not had the experience of devaluation, and in 2014, it was because of the Crimean affair that the West sanctioned Russia, and at that time the devaluation of the ruble was more than doubled, and it was completely depreciated, and it did not return to the previous level, and this time, the conflict was not over, the ruble directly returned to the previous level, which can be said to have surprised all countries.
Actually, why is this? It is because Russia made the right choice, although they broke away from the dollar, but after their same separation, they did not break away from the essential economy.
The ruble is linked to Russia's energy, allowing the world to see the stability of the ruble. The current situation is that Russia is not afraid of US sanctions, financial sanctions, what else? Direct showdown? A showdown of war? Russia is not afraid, but will the United States? Whether the United States is afraid or not, it will never choose to shoot.
And what did this conflict bring? How to choose international capital? In fact, the answer is still easy to think, no matter what the attitude expressed by international capital, but the result is the same.
That is, they still chose a more "safe" United States.
In the past year, the appreciation of the dollar against other major currencies has now reached 10%, and who has depreciated the most? As you might think, it's Japan, which is "protected" by the United States, and the member states of the European Union.
The EU is actually working against the dollar, and NATO is what they cooperate with.
But apparently, they have not escaped the "weakening" of the dollar against the euro.
There is no continuous appreciation, there is, that is, the renminbi. We can look at the international trend of the renminbi in the past two years. Since the epidemic, the renminbi has always been moving higher. Even if the situation in the world is turbulent now, it does not prevent the appreciation of the renminbi. In the most recent year, the renminbi appreciated by about 3% between the renminbi and the dollar.
So why is the situation so turbulent now, but the renminbi is not affected? In fact, it is not, it is not unaffected, but the impact is relatively small, we are different from Russia, we not only have the ability to guarantee homeland security, the ability to guarantee the people's security, but also our economic ability, which is the most important.
Since the epidemic, the status of the renminbi has directly risen to the same level as the US dollar. No longer a "small currency".
Now the status of the renminbi allows international capital to see the "second choice" in addition to the US dollar.
How do international capital think, they have their own evaluation team, but the only two major reasons are fundamental, that is, safety, and the level of return.
The renminbi is now an adversary of the United States, and whether they admit it or not, we can clearly know that the biggest opponent of the dollar in the future is the renminbi.
What are the challenges ahead?
The development of our economy, the development of the country, is now completely different from before, talking about security, China's degree of security has now been arbitrarily compromised by international capital, and the economy, now our economic development is very benign. Our role is completely different from before.
The renminbi has now become another option for international capital not to be harvested by dollars, and no matter how much they comment, that's true.
And now in the United States we see that its focus is on the West, but I don't think it can be careless, why? It's because you don't know if they're well-stocked enough to move to Asia.
And if the United States holds the dollar and hegemony in its hands, we will inevitably become their opponents.
For international capital, the upgrading of the currency is the embodiment of soft power, but it is not harvested by financial means and force, which is the hard power of a country's security.
This is completely significant. And now, on a global scale, we can dynamically clear zero, which is very rare, but you don't want to think that this will make capital favor, because although they are powerful, they also have a very accurate understanding of the bottom layer.
For them, safety, revenue is the first choice, nothing else. There is no distinction between black and white, only international capital to choose, which is very "rational", there is no distinction between "good" and "evil".
They will inevitably combine themselves, to analyze, to analyze which choice will make them feel better and beneficial to them.
In fact, now the United States has all kinds of means, we must clearly understand, that is, this is not only a kind of "maintenance and weakening", this is able to die, we must be cautious about it.
Once they give us a fatal blow, then it may put us in a desperate situation.
summary
The ruble is decoupled from the dollar, our renminbi is in a position, and it can now be said that our response is much more comprehensive and comprehensive than Russia's.
But now the situation shows that the "absolute strength" of the United States is no longer "absolute", and it can be seen from the field of science and technology that what the United States does not give us, we will overcome one by one.
And then, the United States contraction cycle, which is the key to the United States, if international capital still blindly believes in the United States, then they may face the development of the "low trend".
The current era is completely different. The omnipotent "American era" has come to an end, whether it is recognized or not, we must know that the world is changing now, and the United States may be more crazy for the future, but the result is already doomed.
That is the world, no longer "dominated" by the United States.