Article reprinted from "China National Geographic BOOK"
The situation in Russia and Ukraine is confusing...
2022 is only a third of the way through, but it may already be the most critical year of the new century.
On 4 April, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) published the Third Working Group Report of the Sixth Assessment (AR6): Climate Change 2022: Climate Change Mitigation, which issued an unprecedented warning:
The issue of warming has reached its most critical moment, and the next 3 years are our last chance, and avoiding climate disasters requires unconventional extreme measures.
AR6 Working Group I (WG1): Foundations of the Physical Sciences. Working Group II (WG2): Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group III (WG3): Climate Change Mitigation. Figure/IPCC
The IPCC has issued several warnings about climate issues since its inception, but so far they have often been trivialized or ignored, and at the annual COP (United Nations Climate Negotiations), intergovernmental representatives have often debated climate change mitigation, often bringing negotiations to finalize the report to an impasse.
For example, in the fourth round of negotiations in 2010, more than 600 negotiations were held in six days, and no agreement was reached on specific measures, while in last year's negotiations (COP26), countries did not explicitly indicate short-term climate target measures.
△ On November 13, 2021, COP26 closed in Glasgow, England. Countries debate about climate goals. Photo/theconversation
But unlike in the past, the APRIL IPCC's warning was used in Nature as the "clearest and strongest warning to date" and said that the next 3 years are our last chance, according to the model, according to the current global emissions increase, after 2025, there is only a 50% chance of global emissions falling rapidly to limit the warming to 1.5°C (the 1.5°C target of the 2015 Paris Agreement), which is obviously unrealistic.
△ Nature published an article using a harshly worded headline.
In other words, global warming of 1.5 °C has almost become an established fact, and the only thing we have the opportunity to do at present is to control the temperature by 2 °C. Given current policy, some of the scientists who wrote the report estimate that 2°C is still far off, and global temperatures will be nearly 3°C higher than pre-industrial levels.
What does the 2,900-page report, co-authored and cited by 270 authors after a two-day marathon negotiation meeting, citing more than 34,000 scientific papers? Why has the report been called an "unprecedented warning"? What exactly is the dilemma of solving the climate?
Climate issues are at their most critical
△ Global temperature rise 1.5 °C warning. Figure/IPCC
For more than 30 years, the IPCC has been evaluating climate change science on an ongoing basis. Each successive report provides stronger evidence and a deeper understanding of global warming, providing governments with the wealth of information they need to develop responses.
In 2014, the fifth IPCC report led to the following year's Paris Agreement, a landmark event in addressing climate issues, which set the aim of limiting the rise in global average temperatures to 2°C well below pre-industrial levels, preferably within 1.5°C.
△ The signing of the Paris Agreement is a milestone moment in human history. Figure/IPCC
If the temperature rises by 2 °C, the sea level rise caused by the melting of polar glaciers and ice will inundate a large number of coastal cities around the world, including Guangzhou and Shanghai, the frequency of extreme weather such as storms and floods will increase by 1000%, corals will disappear, and humans and a large number of species will face the risk of extinction.
△ Melting sea ice when the temperature rises by 2 °C will cause sea level rise. Figure/SCIENCE
Even a rise of 1.5 °C will still cause an unprecedented disaster in human history, and the coastal countries dominated by island countries will face a serious danger of annihilation.
However, the reality is that with the opening of successive UN climate negotiations, the goals of the Paris Agreement have not only become elusive, but have spawned more and more pessimistic news.
The third part of the ar6, which has just been released, was described by UN Secretary-General António Guterres as a "curse on the failure of climate issues". At the same time, he also praised: "I have read many scientific reports, but I have never been as severe as this one." ”
IPCC AR6: Hotter, faster, stronger global warming. Figure/IPCC
In addition to the aforementioned three years left for us to peak our carbon emissions and must decline after 2025, the report also points out a number of clear, critical messages:
The report says between 3.3 billion and 3.6 billion people, more than 40 percent of the world's population, live in places and environments that are "highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change."
Oceania is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change. Photo/NASA
The report notes that global warming will undermine our environmental actions, such as coastal communities that can temporarily cushion the effects of extreme storms by restoring coral reefs, mangroves and wetlands, but rising sea levels will ultimately in vain, leading to coastal erosion, flooding and loss of freshwater resources.
△ Coastal island countries are the first regions to be threatened by sea level rise. Figure/NRDC
The second part of the report notes that climate change is already causing enormous damage and increasingly irreversible damage in terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and pelagic marine ecosystems. For example, a study of 976 species of flora and fauna found that 47% of the causes of extinction are related to climate change.
Numerous countries in the Pacific Rim have lost more than 80% of their corals. Photo/ bnpparibas
The report also points out that China is one of the 10 countries in the world that have suffered the most from tropical cyclones and storm surge disasters, and this situation may be further exacerbated as climate change intensifies.
The consequences of global warming, represented by extreme weather, have already caused a great deal of death and suffering around the globe, and this will intensify.
Extreme weather is happening anytime, anywhere
△ Wildfires, droughts and storms, three extreme weather events. Photo/NASA
Looking back at 2021, how anomalous is the global climate? In 2021, we reviewed the abnormal extreme weather experienced by the world in 2021, including the floods in Henan and Shanxi, and although 2022 did not start for a long time, it has already shown more severe extreme weather.
In the Southern Hemisphere, which is difficult to notice on our radar, extreme weather has swept through, hitting Countries and regions such as South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Australia and Antarctica.
In mid-March, the Antarctic continent, the Arctic Ocean region at the same time appeared extremely rare super high temperature, the Antarctic Concordia station temperature once broke through -12.2 °C, even warmer than the northeast winter, to know that the historical average temperature in the same period is about -50 °C, and the higher altitude of the Antarctic Orient station also reached -17.7 °C, about 15 °C higher than the same period.
The model simulates normal temperature differences centered on Antarctica. Photo/weatherball
In the Arctic, the temperature in some areas is 28 °C higher than the average of the same period, and the areas near the North Pole, such as Heiss Island and Vize Island, have soared to around 0 °C, which is close to the melting point.
The extreme temperature anomaly in Antarctica, called "inconceivable and unimaginable" by many scientists, is so large and so high that it breaks the highest record since human observation records have been recorded, and is the largest global extreme weather event this year, but researchers at the National Ice and Snow Data Center believe that this extreme weather is only an accidental event, does not cause serious impact, and is not a climate upheaval, but if similar events occur repeatedly, it can be called an abnormal climate.
But the ensuing collapse of the Antarctic ice shelf does not seem to validate scientists' views, and at about the same time as the high temperatures occurred, the ice shelf collapsed for the first time in Southeast Antarctica, and about 1,200 square kilometers of the Conger Ice Shelf has collapsed, and antarctic sea ice has melted to record levels.
Heat waves in Antarctica could cause a lot of sea ice to melt in areas off the coast. Photo/ LIVESCIENCE
Unlike extreme weather in the Arctic and Antarctic, anomalies in inhabited areas of the Southern Hemisphere have had devastating effects. South Africa, for example, was hit by three cyclones and two tropical storms in six weeks. More than 1 million people were affected by extreme rainfall and flooding (more than 300 mm of rainfall 24 hours a day at multiple stations), and large areas of land were flooded, killing at least 230 people. The local government said it was the worst disaster in 60 years.
In South Africa, thousands of people have been flooded and left homeless. Figure/SCIENCE
In Brazil, people have experienced the same super disaster, suffering from three unprecedented rounds of super precipitation in 2 months, and at least 233 people have been killed in Many places such as Rio State.
There are also extreme heat in Argentina, extreme flooding in Australia... As the IPCC warns, global warming has reached its most critical moment, and the anomalous increase in extreme weather is confirming this pessimistic reality step by step.
△ Precipitation trends in Brisbane, Australia. Photo/Zhongqi Love, BOM
In the face of global climate problems, no country can stand alone, and every country needs to take action. As the largest developing country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, the mainland not only exceeded the emission reduction targets set in 2015, but also established a new target of carbon emissions to peak in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060 in 2020.
The avoidance of the worst depends on the actions of States. As Inge Anderson, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, put it:
"Action must begin this year, not next year; this month, not next month; today, not tomorrow."
△ One of the successful cases of combating climate change - wind renewable energy. Figure/SCIENCE
△ Antarctic Weddell Sea, Annapurna Peak, Lake Baikal... The planet beneath our feet has so many precious beauties that we need to guard together. Photo/ Beautiful Earth: "Seven Continents"
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