In just one week, China's foreign exchange market and stock market have fallen sharply.
The strength of the decline is very strong, and I believe that many old investors have accidentally flashed to the old waist.
There must be a lot of investors muttering, what is the situation?
First, let's take a pulse of the RMB exchange rate:
The RMB exchange rate has been hovering at a three-year high, and it is normal to have room for correction.
But the speed of the pullback is too fast and too fierce, which is not normal.
Could it be that the economy has deteriorated to such an extent?
Clearly not, the first quarter of the economy still exceeded expectations.
The probability of a serious decline in the exchange rate due to economic deterioration is very low.
Isn't it because of the economy, is it the epidemic?
It's not right!
When the epidemic broke out from Wuhan, almost the whole country was locked down, the economy stagnated, and the exchange rate of the renminbi did not have such a sharp downward adjustment, let alone such a fierce one.
Some people have said that foreign countries have been liberalized, their productive forces have returned, and foreign trade will be under great pressure.
However, from the foreign trade data in the first quarter, it is not bad, the import and export trade increased by 10.7% year-on-year, and the export was still leveraged, reaching 13.4%.
The financial market speculates on expectations, and the market has long anticipated the expectations of foreign trade, and it is impossible to show it at this time.
It is also said that domestic consumption is not as good as expected, but it is not bad enough to have an extreme situation of negative growth.
In my personal opinion, it's already very good,
At present, the whole world is in turmoil and extremely insecure, it is normal for consumers to be conservative, and no one knows what will happen tomorrow. And, at the moment we're still getting that kind of growth in the context of low inflation, to be honest, it's not bad.
Consumption growth in Western countries is indeed good, but the consumer confidence index remains at a historically low.
They also don't have much desire to consume, so why has their internal consumption increased again?
It is inflated by inflation, take the price of oil!
Most U.S. consumers have increased their fuel bills by nearly 50 percent, but the distance they drive has not increased.
It's like breaking a big stone into a small stone, and then saying that the number of stones has increased, but in fact, the weight of the stone has not increased.
Moreover, for consumers, knowing that if they do not buy today, they will increase prices tomorrow, consumers will consume ahead of time, and they will naturally overdraft their future consumption power.
So in such a complex international environment and low inflation, although our consumption growth momentum is low, I think it is still within the acceptable range.
Therefore, in terms of the internal environment, there is no condition that has caused such a large exchange rate correction.
The foreign exchange market can not find the problem, the stock market is even more bizarre.
From January to now, it has fallen by 15%.
Yesterday's A-share decline is even more incomprehensible, at the low of 3000 points, the decline was more than 5%, rare!
Is something big going on? No!
On April 15, the central bank released 530 billion yuan of funds to the market by reducing the RRR, plus more than 500 billion yuan of profits handed over by state-owned enterprises to the market, and there is obviously no shortage of money in the market.
The economic physique is leveraged, and the nutrition is also abundant, which is obviously not an internal problem.
It's not an internal problem, will it be wind chill?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has exacerbated the turmoil in the world pattern, and it is undeniable that the Fed's interest rate hike has put pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
However, these expectations have long been expected, and it should be early and slow to go down, and there should be no sharp rapid decline.
Is it the U.S. economy that has super-good expectations?
There are no reports, only reports of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund lowering their global economic growth forecasts.
From a fundamental point of view, everyone is the same, which should not be the trigger condition.
What's different?
The Strange Phenomenon of Shanghai:
The epidemic in Shanghai is very strange, more complicated than the epidemic in any part of the country, such as sealing, logistics, and living security, and it is difficult to meet expectations.
At this time, the U.S. consulate in Shanghai was evacuated; the number of searches for Immigrants in Shanghai was 28 times higher than usual.
Shanghai is the financial metropolis of the mainland, where all are financial elites, but they have one thing in common, which is the product of accepting Western economic and financial ideas. To put it bluntly, it is necessary to eat and drink under the Western financial system, so it is normal to be a little strange.
Are there so many people who want to immigrate? In my opinion, it's all about making data!
To be honest, without a domestic platform, where do they find parasites?
If they can eat and drink spicy outside, how can they "bear the burden of humiliation" in this place they don't like?
After the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, some people provoked the confrontation between Chinese and Western medicine; followed by the visit of US lawmakers to Treasure Island; the US aircraft carrier cruised in the waters of the East China Sea; the suppression of Chinese stocks; and the US F-15 fighter rarely "hanging bombs" in the Taiwan Strait.
-- Foreign media said that the US F-15 rare "hanging bombs" in the Taiwan Strait or aimed at the J-20 Taiwan military in the south Taiwan county and city widely set up "anti-ship missile" facilities in order to scare PLA warships.
What is the purpose of engaging in so many? There is a need for a tense atmosphere to coincide with a US interest rate hike.
Up to now, the US dollar has not returned to meet expectations, and there has been a situation of double killing of stocks and debts.
If financial markets continue to fall, the U.S. rate hike could come to an abrupt halt.
Let's look at the image below, which is a screenshot of the network.
Judging from this information, they have long colluded and made a good layout.
First of all, the news was revealed to some people, and then the strong short was made, so that they believed it and joined the ranks of shorts.
This forms a collective short-selling, which drives the mood of investors, hoping to trigger panic among investors and cause the phenomenon of stepping on him.
The killing of A shares can not only cause the spread of panic, but also take money out of the stock market and continue to sell to the foreign exchange market.
This is actually the same old routine, nothing new, and 2015 is the same.
As early as 2015, the United States suffered a fiasco, how can it succeed today?
In 2010, after the United States took advantage of the European debt crisis to harvest Europe, it began to lay out and harvest China.
It took five years to lay the groundwork, and three years to sing empty.
Even at that time, many rich people cashed out the spectacular scene of going to sea.
Boss Wang and Li Shoufu became the leading big brothers who cooperated with the speculation at that time, making the whole world feel that China's economy had come to an end.
In 2014, it began to do a good downward trend in foreign exchange, and in the second half of 2015, it began to launch a general offensive in the stock market.
With the help of the "inner ghost", there was a situation in which a thousand shares fell to a stop and the opening was broken.
The two sides fought for half a year, and the enemy tried its best to hit the Shanghai Index below 3,000 points, with the huge short order of the Shanghai 50. However, under the protection of the national team, the Shanghai Composite Index was stubbornly held at around 3500 points, and it never fell below 3000 points.
In order to impact the foreign exchange market, the opponent has increased the outflow of funds, and in just half a year, China's foreign exchange loss has exceeded 1 trillion US dollars.
The mainland's total foreign exchange at that time was close to 4 trillion US dollars, and eventually consumed almost 1 trillion yuan. Let's not forget that at that time, there was still a trade surplus of five or six billion US dollars per month, and there were more than 300 billion US dollars in half a year. In order to increase the trade surplus, there was also an intention to reduce imports at that time. So overall, we spent more than $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves in this war.
For details about the 2015 financial war, you can click on the link "After the "Hong Kong Financial Defense War", how the United States lost the 2015 financial war" is very exciting.
Of course, the United States is more seriously hurt, we lost more than 1 trillion foreign exchange, which is considered to be hard-earned money, and the United States lost more than 1 trillion US dollars of base currency, which is equivalent to losing future money, so that the United States can not continue to raise interest rates, and the harvest plan is forced to stop.
Since then, the renminbi's exchange rate has begun to turn upwards, and it was not until Trump launched a trade war that the renminbi began to weaken again.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, the mainland quickly controlled the epidemic, but the epidemic in the United States spread rapidly, and the renminbi began to turn around and rise again.
The United States raised interest rates this time, and the return of funds did not meet expectations.
I can only hurry to do things, so I want to use the fastest and greatest strength to rush out of a gap at one time, hoping to cause a stampede phenomenon, and then add a little strength, it is likely to achieve the goal.
But he forgot that today's China is not the China of a decade ago.
Now the constitution of china's economy can withstand any external shock.
After controlling the epidemic, we deleveraged for two consecutive years, and the bubble in China's economy has basically been squeezed out.
Below 3000 points on the line, no hurry! If you continue down, you'll be right to add a position!
A lot of people worry about economic dynamics.
The fears are justified because the world lacks a new engine of economic growth momentum.
But in contrast, China is much better.
We have the "dead goal" of breaking through the technological blockade, which is also one of our growth goals.
Breakthroughs in science and technology will inevitably form their own industrial chain.
For example, solar energy, such as new energy vehicles.
Every time we break through an important technology, we will form a new industrial chain, which is the driving force for growth.
In terms of culture and sports, we actually have a lot of room for development.
There is also rural revitalization, and there is tourism.
With the spread of roads, the Internet, and lifestyle changes brought about by the epidemic, escaping congestion may become a trend and the countryside will usher in a new picture.
In the past two years of great power game, China's exposure rate has reached an unprecedented height, which is a very rare thing.
As the exposure rate increases, the curiosity about China will naturally increase, and more and more foreigners will want to understand the current situation in China.
As long as the epidemic passes, we will welcome more foreign guests.
China has changed from an extensive growth to a finely diversified development.
It is true that it is not as easy to make money as before, but this is the time when it is easiest to make a lot of money.
Consumers have only two words:
What's different about you?
Can you do better than others?